Hindustan Copper shares down 35% in 6 months! Why Anand Rathi sees a strong recovery?

Hindustan Copper is pursuing a multi-pronged expansion strategy, with a 20-year revenue-sharing contract awarded to restart, upgrade and maintain the 50,000-tonne Gujarat Copper Plant, according to a report by Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers. It sees up to 46 per cent upside in the stock.

The brokerage said the company has also resumed operations at the 0.2 million-tonne Kendadih copper mine and plans to double its capacity to 0.4 million tonne, while evaluating the revival of the Pathargora block in Jharkhand and the Dikchu block in Sikkim.

Anand Rathi said the Gujarat Copper Plant could generate incremental revenue of about Rs 110-Rs 125 crore for Hindustan Copper at current LME copper prices and optimal utilisation. It also expects domestic copper demand to more than double over the next decade, helped by new-age applications, and has projected revenue to rise 3.3 times to about Rs 10,200 crore over FY26-31e, with EBITDA increasing 3.5 times to Rs 510 crore.

Shares of Hindustan Copper dropped nearly 2 per cent to Rs 490.30 on Thursday, commanding a market capitalization more than 48,000 crore. The stock is down nearly 10 per cent in the last one month. Hindustan Copper has tumbled more than 35 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 759.20 hit in January 2026.

Capacity expansion and mine revival Anand Rathi said the 50,000-tonne secondary copper unit at Gujarat can produce 99.99 per cent LME-grade copper cathode and is likely to begin operations from Q3 FY27. The agreement has been structured as a phased revenue-sharing model.

Up to 20,000 tonne, Lohum Materials would receive 2.25 per cent of revenue, reducing to 2 per cent for volumes between 20,000 tonne and 37,500 tonne, and then to 1.75 per cent. The brokerage said this additional revenue is expected to flow to operating profit and has been built into estimates from FY28 onwards.

At the mining level, Kendadih has resumed at 0.2 million tonne and is slated for expansion to 4 lakh tonne. Anand Rathi said Pathargora and Dikchu may be relatively small operations, but their average ore grade of about 3-4 per cent could offset lower production volumes. A revival of these blocks could support the next phase of expansion beyond CY30-31, with cumulative MIC volume expected to exceed 1 lakh tonne by FY31e.

Earnings outlook and capex For Q1 FY27, Anand Rathi expects Hindustan Copper’s revenue to cross Rs 850 crore, up about 66 per cent year-on-year, supported by a nearly 10 per cent depreciation in the rupee, around 25 per cent higher LME prices adjusted for premium, volume growth of about 30 per cent and TC/RC contribution of about 1 per cent.

Despite higher commercial fuel and explosives costs, the brokerage expects EBITDA margin of about 48 per cent, or Rs 410 crore. On expansion projects, the brokerage said Hindustan Copper has placed orders for a 3 million-tonne concentrator plant as well a service and production winders.

The about Rs14 billion capex programme at MCP is progressing on schedule, with the shaft likely to be commissioned by April 2029, which Anand Rathi said should raise ore volumes and support the company’s Vision 2030 production targets. The brokerage added that its estimates do not include volumes from Pathargora and Dikchu, and assume full ramp-up at MCP only from FY30

It identified key risks as volatility in commodity prices, delays in mining capex, undue delay in volume expansion, and a change in KMP from July 2026 onwards. Anand Rathi has maintained a 'buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 715, suggesting a 46 per cent upside from its today's lows.