IDFC First Bank: Nomura assesses fraud impact, shares target price, forensic audit view
Given IDFC First Bank’s retail deposit-led model, reputational perception remains critical, and the stock could remain under pressure until forensic findings are clearly established, Nomura said.
- Feb 24, 2026,
- Updated Feb 24, 2026 9:01 AM IST
Nomura India in a fresh note on IDFC First Bank Ltd said the Rs 590 crore fraud disclosure by the lender would weigh on near-term investor sentiment. The brokerage said that while the issue appeared localised, it raised concerns around governance and branch-level controls. Nomura said it would await clarity on the quantum of potential loss, recoveries and provisioning stance.
In deposit-linked frauds, banks usually protect depositors and recognise the loss through P&L once the fraud is established, leading to high and often full provisioning, whereas recoveries, if any, are generally back-ended, Nomura said.
"Given IDFC First Bank’s retail deposit-led model, reputational perception remains critical, and the stock could remain under pressure until forensic findings and the financial impact are clearly established," it said.
Nomura said the amount under reconciliation, Rs 590 crore forms 28 per cent of FY26F profit and 19 basis points of the CET-1 ratio, which stood at 14.23 per cent, as of December 2025.
"The exact impact to the bank’s financials will depend on potential recoveries made through the liens marked on fraudulent beneficiary accounts maintained with other banks, liabilities of entities involved in the transactions and the legal recovery process," it said.
For now, the foreign brokerage retained its 'Buy' rating and a target of Rs 105 on the stock.
IDFC First Bank reported potential fraud at its Chandigarh branch involved certain employees and specific Haryana government-linked accounts. Discrepancies were identified in account balances following a closure and fund transfer request, Nomura noted.
The issue is stated to be confined to identified government accounts and not other branch customers. The bank has suspended four officials, informed regulators and auditors, filed police complaints, initiated lien marking on beneficiary accounts, and appointed an independent forensic auditor.
IDFC First Bank technical view Following a steep fall on Monday, the stock breached its 200-day SMA, which was positioned near Rs 77 and had been acting as the final major long-term support.
"A decisive close below this level clearly indicates a shift in the broader trend—from a “buy on dips” approach to a “sell on rise” strategy—signaling a structural trend reversal," said Sachin Gupta, Choice Broking.
Nomura India in a fresh note on IDFC First Bank Ltd said the Rs 590 crore fraud disclosure by the lender would weigh on near-term investor sentiment. The brokerage said that while the issue appeared localised, it raised concerns around governance and branch-level controls. Nomura said it would await clarity on the quantum of potential loss, recoveries and provisioning stance.
In deposit-linked frauds, banks usually protect depositors and recognise the loss through P&L once the fraud is established, leading to high and often full provisioning, whereas recoveries, if any, are generally back-ended, Nomura said.
"Given IDFC First Bank’s retail deposit-led model, reputational perception remains critical, and the stock could remain under pressure until forensic findings and the financial impact are clearly established," it said.
Nomura said the amount under reconciliation, Rs 590 crore forms 28 per cent of FY26F profit and 19 basis points of the CET-1 ratio, which stood at 14.23 per cent, as of December 2025.
"The exact impact to the bank’s financials will depend on potential recoveries made through the liens marked on fraudulent beneficiary accounts maintained with other banks, liabilities of entities involved in the transactions and the legal recovery process," it said.
For now, the foreign brokerage retained its 'Buy' rating and a target of Rs 105 on the stock.
IDFC First Bank reported potential fraud at its Chandigarh branch involved certain employees and specific Haryana government-linked accounts. Discrepancies were identified in account balances following a closure and fund transfer request, Nomura noted.
The issue is stated to be confined to identified government accounts and not other branch customers. The bank has suspended four officials, informed regulators and auditors, filed police complaints, initiated lien marking on beneficiary accounts, and appointed an independent forensic auditor.
IDFC First Bank technical view Following a steep fall on Monday, the stock breached its 200-day SMA, which was positioned near Rs 77 and had been acting as the final major long-term support.
"A decisive close below this level clearly indicates a shift in the broader trend—from a “buy on dips” approach to a “sell on rise” strategy—signaling a structural trend reversal," said Sachin Gupta, Choice Broking.