IndiGo shares at 52-week low: Emkay sees 56% upside as war tension lift crude oil prices
Budget airline player InterGlobe Aviation, the parent company of IndiGo, cracked more than 9 per cent during the trading session on Monday to hit new 52-week lows.
- Mar 9, 2026,
- Updated Mar 9, 2026 11:27 AM IST
IndiGo share price: Budget airline player InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, the parent company of IndiGo, cracked more than 9 per cent during the trading session on Monday to hit new 52-week lows. However, select brokerage firms continue to remain positive even amid the double whammy for the airline operator led by the rising war concerns in West Asia.
Shares of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) tanked 9.15 per cent on Monday to Rs 4035.65, hitting its new 52-week lows as its market capitalization slipped below Rs 1.6 lakh crore. The stock has plunged over 35 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 6,225.05, hit in August 2025. The stock is down nearly 20 per cent in the last one month, while it has fallen 22 per cent in 2026 so far.
IndiGo shares have been hit hard from both sides as the war crisis in West Asia between Iran and the US-Israel has impacted operations due to closure of air-routes in the region, while rising crude oil prices in addition to their cost of operation. Crude oil prices soared 26% on Monday to hover around $120 per barrel.
The ongoing US–Israel conflict with Iran has rendered significant portions of the West Asia airspace inaccessible, leading to widespread flight cancellations and rerouting of services. This, combined with the existing closure of Pakistan’s airspace, has disrupted Indigo’s international operations, with flights to or through the West Asia now affected, said Emkay Global.
Concerns around crude supply disruption following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven up crude prices to $90/bbl. Jet fuel cracks have more than doubled to $40–50/bbl, with some spot benchmarks showing up to $80/bbl. If current trends persist, ATF prices for April 2026E may rise by over 40 per cent, although the extent of pass-through by OMCs remains uncertain, it said.
"While near-term visibility on the conflict remains limited, the strategic importance of West Asia energy flows to global markets could accelerate a resolution. Encouragingly, Indigo’s operating metrics for Jan/Feb-26 were broadly in line to slightly ahead of guidance and our estimates," says Emkay.
"We, therefore, maintain our positive stance on the stock, expecting a swift normalization in operations once geopolitical tensions ease. We will revisit our estimates and TP as the fiscal comes to a close and on taking cues from next year’s guidance. We retain 'buy' with the December 2027E target of Rs 6,300," it added, suggesting a 56 per cent upside potential from its latest lows.
ICICI Securities also noted that rising crude oil prices shall negatively impact sectors including aviation as well. Among other brokerage firms, Motilal Oswal Financial Services has a 'buy' rating on IndiGo with a target price of Rs 6,100, while JM Financial has an 'add' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 5,420.
IndiGo share price: Budget airline player InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, the parent company of IndiGo, cracked more than 9 per cent during the trading session on Monday to hit new 52-week lows. However, select brokerage firms continue to remain positive even amid the double whammy for the airline operator led by the rising war concerns in West Asia.
Shares of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) tanked 9.15 per cent on Monday to Rs 4035.65, hitting its new 52-week lows as its market capitalization slipped below Rs 1.6 lakh crore. The stock has plunged over 35 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 6,225.05, hit in August 2025. The stock is down nearly 20 per cent in the last one month, while it has fallen 22 per cent in 2026 so far.
IndiGo shares have been hit hard from both sides as the war crisis in West Asia between Iran and the US-Israel has impacted operations due to closure of air-routes in the region, while rising crude oil prices in addition to their cost of operation. Crude oil prices soared 26% on Monday to hover around $120 per barrel.
The ongoing US–Israel conflict with Iran has rendered significant portions of the West Asia airspace inaccessible, leading to widespread flight cancellations and rerouting of services. This, combined with the existing closure of Pakistan’s airspace, has disrupted Indigo’s international operations, with flights to or through the West Asia now affected, said Emkay Global.
Concerns around crude supply disruption following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven up crude prices to $90/bbl. Jet fuel cracks have more than doubled to $40–50/bbl, with some spot benchmarks showing up to $80/bbl. If current trends persist, ATF prices for April 2026E may rise by over 40 per cent, although the extent of pass-through by OMCs remains uncertain, it said.
"While near-term visibility on the conflict remains limited, the strategic importance of West Asia energy flows to global markets could accelerate a resolution. Encouragingly, Indigo’s operating metrics for Jan/Feb-26 were broadly in line to slightly ahead of guidance and our estimates," says Emkay.
"We, therefore, maintain our positive stance on the stock, expecting a swift normalization in operations once geopolitical tensions ease. We will revisit our estimates and TP as the fiscal comes to a close and on taking cues from next year’s guidance. We retain 'buy' with the December 2027E target of Rs 6,300," it added, suggesting a 56 per cent upside potential from its latest lows.
ICICI Securities also noted that rising crude oil prices shall negatively impact sectors including aviation as well. Among other brokerage firms, Motilal Oswal Financial Services has a 'buy' rating on IndiGo with a target price of Rs 6,100, while JM Financial has an 'add' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 5,420.