IndiGo shares: Is the worst already in the price? What price targets suggest
Nuvama said the operational turbulence forced the airline to cut its Q3 guidance and accept lower growth in both available seat per kilometres and passenger revenue per available seat kilometre.
- Dec 12, 2025,
- Updated Dec 12, 2025 11:05 AM IST
InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) saw its shares recovering a bit on Friday, as a few targets on the counter suggest the worst may be in the price. In its latest note, Nuvama Research flagged the carrier’s worst operational disruption in years and cut its earnings forecasts, citing mismanagement during the rollout of revised flight duty time limitations.
The brokerage said more than 4,500 flight cancellations, acute pilot shortages and a 10 per cent DGCA-mandated cut in the domestic winter schedule created meaningful downside risk to near-term profitability and valuations. While the brokerage hinted at near-term pain, its target of Rs 5,069 on the IndiGo stock suggests downside is limited. On Friday, the scrip was trading 0.95 per cent higher at Rs 4,865 apiece.
HSBC suggested a target of Rs 5,977 on the stock; UBS Rs 6,350 and Jefferies Rs 7,025, suggesting potential upsides. Investec, however, has a target of Rs 4,040, suggesting potential downside.
HSBC lowered its FY26 and FY27 Ebitda forecasts by 4 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively. This brokerage does not see any structural damage to IndiGo. Emkay Global suggested a target of Rs 6,300. While Indigo runs the risk of lost reputation and regulatory support, its position in the Indian aviation market is vital and quick normalization of operations should revive the momentum, Emkay said.
Nuvama said the operational turbulence, which intensified after stricter FDTL norms took effect on November 1, 2025, forced the airline to cut its Q3 guidance and accept lower growth in both available seat per kilometres and passenger revenue per available seat kilometre. The brokerage estimated a 40 per cent hit to Q3FY26 Ebitdar, driven by reduced pricing power, a 7 per cent rise in aviation turbine fuel costs and higher compensation payouts to disrupted passengers, and said yields were likely to remain soft even if load factors improved.
The revised norms, which expanded rest requirements and restricted night operations, created a sharp resource mismatch for IndiGo and triggered widespread cancellations starting early December. Although DGCA later placed the norms on hold for the A320 fleet until February 2026, Nuvama said the near-term financial impact had already set in. It added that foreign-exchange losses of Rs 15 billion and penalties related to refunds further strained profitability.
Nuvama cut its FY26, FY27 and FY28 Ebitdar estimates by 14 per cent, 4 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively, and lowered its target price by 5 per cent to Rs 5,069, retaining a Hold rating. The brokerage said the stock’s valuation remained elevated at 17 times and 11 times FY27E and FY28E earnings, and warned that pressure could grow for the airline to reduce its 65 per cent domestic market share, introducing longer-term risks to its growth assumptions.
InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) saw its shares recovering a bit on Friday, as a few targets on the counter suggest the worst may be in the price. In its latest note, Nuvama Research flagged the carrier’s worst operational disruption in years and cut its earnings forecasts, citing mismanagement during the rollout of revised flight duty time limitations.
The brokerage said more than 4,500 flight cancellations, acute pilot shortages and a 10 per cent DGCA-mandated cut in the domestic winter schedule created meaningful downside risk to near-term profitability and valuations. While the brokerage hinted at near-term pain, its target of Rs 5,069 on the IndiGo stock suggests downside is limited. On Friday, the scrip was trading 0.95 per cent higher at Rs 4,865 apiece.
HSBC suggested a target of Rs 5,977 on the stock; UBS Rs 6,350 and Jefferies Rs 7,025, suggesting potential upsides. Investec, however, has a target of Rs 4,040, suggesting potential downside.
HSBC lowered its FY26 and FY27 Ebitda forecasts by 4 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively. This brokerage does not see any structural damage to IndiGo. Emkay Global suggested a target of Rs 6,300. While Indigo runs the risk of lost reputation and regulatory support, its position in the Indian aviation market is vital and quick normalization of operations should revive the momentum, Emkay said.
Nuvama said the operational turbulence, which intensified after stricter FDTL norms took effect on November 1, 2025, forced the airline to cut its Q3 guidance and accept lower growth in both available seat per kilometres and passenger revenue per available seat kilometre. The brokerage estimated a 40 per cent hit to Q3FY26 Ebitdar, driven by reduced pricing power, a 7 per cent rise in aviation turbine fuel costs and higher compensation payouts to disrupted passengers, and said yields were likely to remain soft even if load factors improved.
The revised norms, which expanded rest requirements and restricted night operations, created a sharp resource mismatch for IndiGo and triggered widespread cancellations starting early December. Although DGCA later placed the norms on hold for the A320 fleet until February 2026, Nuvama said the near-term financial impact had already set in. It added that foreign-exchange losses of Rs 15 billion and penalties related to refunds further strained profitability.
Nuvama cut its FY26, FY27 and FY28 Ebitdar estimates by 14 per cent, 4 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively, and lowered its target price by 5 per cent to Rs 5,069, retaining a Hold rating. The brokerage said the stock’s valuation remained elevated at 17 times and 11 times FY27E and FY28E earnings, and warned that pressure could grow for the airline to reduce its 65 per cent domestic market share, introducing longer-term risks to its growth assumptions.