Iran war, stock impact: Winners & losers of ongoing energy shock
Amber Enterprises and PG Electroplast were also highly exposed as they hold only 7-10 days of heat-exchanger inventory. Voltas and LG Electronics carry higher inventory of 25-35 days.
- Mar 13, 2026,
- Updated Mar 13, 2026 11:06 AM IST
Elara Securities on Friday said the escalation in the US-Iran conflict triggered a sharp energy shock, disrupting LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing Brent crude prices above the $100 a barrel mark, exposing India’s vulnerability to gas supply disruptions.
The brokerage sees potential winners in Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), Hindalco Industries Ltd, Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd (CPCL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL), Polycab India, KEI Industries Ltd and Jindal Steel. On the other hand, as per Elara, potential losers include BPCL, HPCL, IOCL, Amber Enterprises India Ltd, PG Electroplast Ltd, Petronet LNG Ltd, Gujarat Gas Ltd, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (IndiGo), Eternal Ltd (erstwhile Zomato), Chambal Fertilisers, Coromandel International and Paradeep Phosphates.
Elara said the city gas distribution (CGD) segment could see the most prolonged impact due to uncertainty around gas supply normalisation. Companies such as Petronet LNG Ltd, GAIL, Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) and Gujarat Gas were seen as the most vulnerable.
RAC component makers Amber Enterprises and PG Electroplast were also highly exposed as they hold only 7-10 days of heat-exchanger inventory. The brokerage estimated that a three-month disruption could cut FY27 earnings per share estimates by about 30-35 per cent for Amber Enterprises and 25-30 per cent for PG Electroplast.
Original equipment manufacturers Voltas and LG Electronics carry higher inventory of 25-35 days, which could limit the near-term impact, though they remain exposed to supply-chain disruptions during the peak summer season.
For Larsen & Toubro, Elara said a 10-30 per cent disruption in project execution could lead to a proportional decline in revenue, Ebitda and profit after tax. However, margins were likely to remain broadly stable due to the cost-plus nature of several EPC contracts and the ability to pass through cost escalations.
Food delivery platforms Eternal and Swiggy have not yet witnessed a fall in volumes, but Elara said LPG-dependent restaurants could face short-term demand pressure. In a bear-case scenario assuming a 20-day disruption, Eternal could see about a 3.7 per cent impact on Q4FY26 order volumes and around a 7.1 per cent hit to adjusted Ebitda.
"Auto ancillaries currently hold a buffer of 2 to 3 weeks so the impact may not be immediate; yet manufacturer supplier risk and high gas prices are risks," Elara said.
Within the energy space, upstream producers ONGC and Oil India could initially benefit from higher realisations, though the brokerage cautioned that policy intervention could cap gains if implemented.
Refiners such as RIL, CPCL and MRPL were viewed as relatively insulated as stronger refining margins could offset feedstock inflation. Elara sees oil marketing companies BPCL, HPCL and IOCL as the most vulnerable to the crude spike. In aviation, Elara estimated that for InterGlobe Aviation, assuming a 50 per cent aviation turbine fuel cost pass-through and a 15 per cent traffic impact, Ebitda could fall sharply from Rs 23,700 crore in the base case at $65 crude to Rs 13,400 crore if crude rises to $100.
Among auto ancillaries, tyre manufacturers could face input cost pressure, with every 10 per cent increase in crude potentially compressing margins by about 60-80 basis points. Paint companies may eventually pass through higher costs, though weak demand could delay this, Elara said adding that cement producers could face near-term fuel cost inflation.
Conversely, aluminium producers such as Hindalco Industries could benefit if supply disruptions in the Gulf Cooperation Council region tighten global markets.
Elara Securities on Friday said the escalation in the US-Iran conflict triggered a sharp energy shock, disrupting LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing Brent crude prices above the $100 a barrel mark, exposing India’s vulnerability to gas supply disruptions.
The brokerage sees potential winners in Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), Hindalco Industries Ltd, Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd (CPCL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL), Polycab India, KEI Industries Ltd and Jindal Steel. On the other hand, as per Elara, potential losers include BPCL, HPCL, IOCL, Amber Enterprises India Ltd, PG Electroplast Ltd, Petronet LNG Ltd, Gujarat Gas Ltd, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (IndiGo), Eternal Ltd (erstwhile Zomato), Chambal Fertilisers, Coromandel International and Paradeep Phosphates.
Elara said the city gas distribution (CGD) segment could see the most prolonged impact due to uncertainty around gas supply normalisation. Companies such as Petronet LNG Ltd, GAIL, Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) and Gujarat Gas were seen as the most vulnerable.
RAC component makers Amber Enterprises and PG Electroplast were also highly exposed as they hold only 7-10 days of heat-exchanger inventory. The brokerage estimated that a three-month disruption could cut FY27 earnings per share estimates by about 30-35 per cent for Amber Enterprises and 25-30 per cent for PG Electroplast.
Original equipment manufacturers Voltas and LG Electronics carry higher inventory of 25-35 days, which could limit the near-term impact, though they remain exposed to supply-chain disruptions during the peak summer season.
For Larsen & Toubro, Elara said a 10-30 per cent disruption in project execution could lead to a proportional decline in revenue, Ebitda and profit after tax. However, margins were likely to remain broadly stable due to the cost-plus nature of several EPC contracts and the ability to pass through cost escalations.
Food delivery platforms Eternal and Swiggy have not yet witnessed a fall in volumes, but Elara said LPG-dependent restaurants could face short-term demand pressure. In a bear-case scenario assuming a 20-day disruption, Eternal could see about a 3.7 per cent impact on Q4FY26 order volumes and around a 7.1 per cent hit to adjusted Ebitda.
"Auto ancillaries currently hold a buffer of 2 to 3 weeks so the impact may not be immediate; yet manufacturer supplier risk and high gas prices are risks," Elara said.
Within the energy space, upstream producers ONGC and Oil India could initially benefit from higher realisations, though the brokerage cautioned that policy intervention could cap gains if implemented.
Refiners such as RIL, CPCL and MRPL were viewed as relatively insulated as stronger refining margins could offset feedstock inflation. Elara sees oil marketing companies BPCL, HPCL and IOCL as the most vulnerable to the crude spike. In aviation, Elara estimated that for InterGlobe Aviation, assuming a 50 per cent aviation turbine fuel cost pass-through and a 15 per cent traffic impact, Ebitda could fall sharply from Rs 23,700 crore in the base case at $65 crude to Rs 13,400 crore if crude rises to $100.
Among auto ancillaries, tyre manufacturers could face input cost pressure, with every 10 per cent increase in crude potentially compressing margins by about 60-80 basis points. Paint companies may eventually pass through higher costs, though weak demand could delay this, Elara said adding that cement producers could face near-term fuel cost inflation.
Conversely, aluminium producers such as Hindalco Industries could benefit if supply disruptions in the Gulf Cooperation Council region tighten global markets.