ITC shares hit July 2017 levels post cigarette tax hike; what lies ahead?
ITC share price: ITC shares are deeply oversold on charts following fresh excise duty hikes on cigarettes announced by the government in the beginning of this month.
- Jan 22, 2026,
- Updated Jan 22, 2026 9:17 AM IST
ITC shareholders are in a fix after holding the stock for nearly 8.5 years. The FMCG stock closed at Rs 324.70 in the previous session. On July 17, 2017, the ITC stock stood at Rs 325.75 with investors in the FMCG stock logging zero returns till date in over eight years.
ITC shares, which hit a 52-week low in the previous session, are deeply oversold on charts following fresh excise duty hikes on cigarettes announced by the government in the beginning of this month. RSI of the ITC stock stands at 16, way below the threshold of 30 mark.
Subsequently, sentiment turned weak with the stock plunging 11%,leading to a loss of Rs 97,000 crore in market capitalisation this month. This month's loss is almost equal to the 11.92% loss shareholders incurred in 2025. The stock closed lower in the last year after four straight years of annual gain.
In the previous session, ITC shares closed on a flat note at Rs 324.70. Market cap of the firm stood at Rs 4.06 lakh crore. The stock fell to a 52 week low of Rs 324.35 on BSE. The stock is down 21% in three months and 27% in two years.
Brokerage Nuvama has downgraded the ITC stock from 'buy' to 'hold', expecting negative impact of excise duty hikes on sales and operational income. It has assigned a price target of Rs 415 against the earlier Rs 534 on the ITC stock.
Japanese Brokerage Nomura double-downgraded ITC to "reduce" from its earlier rating of "buy" and pared its price target by Rs to Rs 340 from Rs 540 earlier.
Centrum Broking has a price target of Rs 390 with a price target of Rs 390.
Centrum Broking estimates tax increase stands at 35-55% depending on stick length for filter cigarette which will require MRP hikes of 20-35% to negate the tax incidence. "However, such steep MRP hike will result in double digit decline in cigarette volumes in FY27E. Hence, we cut our earnings estimates by 10-13% for FY27-28E. We downgrade the stock from BUY to NEUTRAL," said the brokerage.
Axis Securities has a hold rating on the stock with a price target of Rs 380.
"Considering the recent tax hikes in cigarette business and near-term headwind in the industry, we cut the margin estimates for FY26/FY27 but remain positive on medium to long-term growth," the brokerage said.
ITC shareholders are in a fix after holding the stock for nearly 8.5 years. The FMCG stock closed at Rs 324.70 in the previous session. On July 17, 2017, the ITC stock stood at Rs 325.75 with investors in the FMCG stock logging zero returns till date in over eight years.
ITC shares, which hit a 52-week low in the previous session, are deeply oversold on charts following fresh excise duty hikes on cigarettes announced by the government in the beginning of this month. RSI of the ITC stock stands at 16, way below the threshold of 30 mark.
Subsequently, sentiment turned weak with the stock plunging 11%,leading to a loss of Rs 97,000 crore in market capitalisation this month. This month's loss is almost equal to the 11.92% loss shareholders incurred in 2025. The stock closed lower in the last year after four straight years of annual gain.
In the previous session, ITC shares closed on a flat note at Rs 324.70. Market cap of the firm stood at Rs 4.06 lakh crore. The stock fell to a 52 week low of Rs 324.35 on BSE. The stock is down 21% in three months and 27% in two years.
Brokerage Nuvama has downgraded the ITC stock from 'buy' to 'hold', expecting negative impact of excise duty hikes on sales and operational income. It has assigned a price target of Rs 415 against the earlier Rs 534 on the ITC stock.
Japanese Brokerage Nomura double-downgraded ITC to "reduce" from its earlier rating of "buy" and pared its price target by Rs to Rs 340 from Rs 540 earlier.
Centrum Broking has a price target of Rs 390 with a price target of Rs 390.
Centrum Broking estimates tax increase stands at 35-55% depending on stick length for filter cigarette which will require MRP hikes of 20-35% to negate the tax incidence. "However, such steep MRP hike will result in double digit decline in cigarette volumes in FY27E. Hence, we cut our earnings estimates by 10-13% for FY27-28E. We downgrade the stock from BUY to NEUTRAL," said the brokerage.
Axis Securities has a hold rating on the stock with a price target of Rs 380.
"Considering the recent tax hikes in cigarette business and near-term headwind in the industry, we cut the margin estimates for FY26/FY27 but remain positive on medium to long-term growth," the brokerage said.