ITC shares in a downtrend: Price targets, outlook, technicals and more
ITC shares are down 27.61% from their 52 week high and are trading near their 52 week low of Rs 302 hit on February 2, 2026.
- Feb 25, 2026,
- Updated Feb 25, 2026 11:57 AM IST
Shares of ITC are in bear grip for up to three years. The FMCG firm's shares are down 18% in two years and 12% in three years. Excise duty hike announcement on cigarettes has shaved off 12% from the defensive stock this year. ITC shares are down 27.61% from their 52 week high and are trading near their 52 week low of Rs 302 hit on February 2,2026.
In terms of technicals, the FMCG stock is trading below its short term and long term simple moving averages. The RSI of the stock lies at 45.5 signalling the stock is neither trading in the oversold nor in overbought zone.
On the other hand, the company is almost debt free. It has a healthy net profit CAGR of 32.7 in three years.
Global brokerage CLSA has reatined its 'Outperform' rating on the stock but trimmed its price target by 24% to Rs 367 from Rs 485 earlier. Indirect taxes on cigarettes increased sharply in February 2026, following the replacement of the compensation cess with GST and higher excise duties, said CLSA.
According to the brokerage's estimates, ITC would need to raise cigarette prices by about 33% to remain neutral on EBIT per cigarette.
However, such steep hikes, could weigh on volumes and drag the cigarette division's EBIT in FY27.
CLSA sees a recovery for ITC in FY28, assuming no further tax hike, citing ITC's historical track record of passing on tax hikes, last seen during FY14 to FY16. The brokerage has cut its earnings estimates by 4% to 28% on the FMCG major.
Kotak Institutional Equities has a 'Reduce' rating on the ITC stock with a price target of Rs 338.
Kotak said ITC's blended 25% price hike on cigarettes, well below the 35% required to fully offset the tax hike, could lead to a 30% to 33% near-term decline in cigarette EBIT.
According to Kotak, this reflects a deliberate trade-off, with the company prioritising volume protection over profitability through staggered price increases.
Kotak said that ITC, the market and price leader, waited for Godfrey Phillips India to announce a price hike in Marlboro Compact before matching it.
This, according to the brokerage, reflects heightened competition in the RSFT segment and signals ITC's rising sensitivity to market share losses to Marlboro.
In response to the excise duty hike, cigarette manufacturers such as ITC and Godfrey Phillips have passed the effect of excise duty hikes to consumers, leading to retail price hikes of 15–20% across most brands.
ITC's cigarette business accounts for more than 40 per cent of the company's total revenue alone.
The government announced a significant hike in cigarette taxation effective from February 1, 2026. This tax structure replaces the previous 28% GST plus compensation cess with a higher 40% GST and a newly introduced per-stick excise duty based on cigarette length.
A pack of 10 cigarettes is likely to cost at least Rs 22– Rs 25 more, with premium brands potentially seeing price hikes up to Rs 55 per pack.
Shares of ITC are in bear grip for up to three years. The FMCG firm's shares are down 18% in two years and 12% in three years. Excise duty hike announcement on cigarettes has shaved off 12% from the defensive stock this year. ITC shares are down 27.61% from their 52 week high and are trading near their 52 week low of Rs 302 hit on February 2,2026.
In terms of technicals, the FMCG stock is trading below its short term and long term simple moving averages. The RSI of the stock lies at 45.5 signalling the stock is neither trading in the oversold nor in overbought zone.
On the other hand, the company is almost debt free. It has a healthy net profit CAGR of 32.7 in three years.
Global brokerage CLSA has reatined its 'Outperform' rating on the stock but trimmed its price target by 24% to Rs 367 from Rs 485 earlier. Indirect taxes on cigarettes increased sharply in February 2026, following the replacement of the compensation cess with GST and higher excise duties, said CLSA.
According to the brokerage's estimates, ITC would need to raise cigarette prices by about 33% to remain neutral on EBIT per cigarette.
However, such steep hikes, could weigh on volumes and drag the cigarette division's EBIT in FY27.
CLSA sees a recovery for ITC in FY28, assuming no further tax hike, citing ITC's historical track record of passing on tax hikes, last seen during FY14 to FY16. The brokerage has cut its earnings estimates by 4% to 28% on the FMCG major.
Kotak Institutional Equities has a 'Reduce' rating on the ITC stock with a price target of Rs 338.
Kotak said ITC's blended 25% price hike on cigarettes, well below the 35% required to fully offset the tax hike, could lead to a 30% to 33% near-term decline in cigarette EBIT.
According to Kotak, this reflects a deliberate trade-off, with the company prioritising volume protection over profitability through staggered price increases.
Kotak said that ITC, the market and price leader, waited for Godfrey Phillips India to announce a price hike in Marlboro Compact before matching it.
This, according to the brokerage, reflects heightened competition in the RSFT segment and signals ITC's rising sensitivity to market share losses to Marlboro.
In response to the excise duty hike, cigarette manufacturers such as ITC and Godfrey Phillips have passed the effect of excise duty hikes to consumers, leading to retail price hikes of 15–20% across most brands.
ITC's cigarette business accounts for more than 40 per cent of the company's total revenue alone.
The government announced a significant hike in cigarette taxation effective from February 1, 2026. This tax structure replaces the previous 28% GST plus compensation cess with a higher 40% GST and a newly introduced per-stick excise duty based on cigarette length.
A pack of 10 cigarettes is likely to cost at least Rs 22– Rs 25 more, with premium brands potentially seeing price hikes up to Rs 55 per pack.