ITC shares: Mild recovery from 52-week low, brokerages expect more upside
ITC share price: Amid the mild recovery, the stock has turned green in terms of 5 day, 10 day and 20 day simple moving averages.
- Jun 16, 2026,
- Updated Jun 17, 2026 5:07 PM IST
ITC share price: Shares of ITC Ltd are in a recovery mode after falling to their 52-week low on June 4 this year. The FMCG stock ended 0.34% lower at Rs 290.75 today against the previous close of Rs 291.75. Market cap of the firm stood at Rs 3.64 lakh crore. The stock has slipped 32% from the 52 week high of Rs 426.50 reached on October 31, 2025. It trades near the 52-week low of Rs 275 reached on June 4, 2026.
The stock which fell 12% in 2025 is already down 20% this year, due to a hike in taxes on tobacco in January 2026. However, the stock has gained 6% from its 52 week low till date. Amid the mild recovery, the stock has turned green in terms of 5 day, 10 day and 20 day simple moving averages.
The FMCG stock-among the most tracked retail bets in 2026-has received buy calls from a slew of brokerages.
Kotak Securities has assigned a fair value of Rs 365 to the ITC stock with resistance at Rs 292-Rs 298 and support at Rs 284- Rs 280.
Kotak finds that early trade trends, based on the brokerage's checks, indicate that the volume impact on ITC's cigarette portfolio has been relatively contained (5-10% fall), while the EBIT impact has been significant (30% decline) due to the partial tax absorption and adverse mix shifts, albeit broadly on expected lines.
Kotak has tweaked estimates and increased its SoTP-based fair value to Rs 365 (from Rs 330), which values the cigarette business at 16X September 2028E PE (15X earlier).
"At the CMP, the stock offers a dividend yield of about 4.5% and implies September 2028E PE of 10X for the cigarette business. We estimate an 18% decline in cigarette EBIT in FY2027E, followed by 14% growth in FY2028E," said Kotak.
Brokerage Motilal Oswal assigned a neutral rating to the stock with a price target of Rs 300.
"Positive catalysts such as improving FMCG performance and paperboard margin normalization are overshadowed by the cigarette earnings headwind stemming from illicit competition, constrained pricing flexibility, and the inevitable volume-versus margin trade-off that defines ITC's near-term trajectory," said Motilal Oswal.
Brokerage Systematix has assigned a price target of Rs 310 to the stock against the earlier Rs 340.
"We lower our FY27E-FY28E revenue/ EPS estimates for ITC by 2-4%; we build FY26-FY28E revenue/ EPS CAGR of 6%/ 2%. We expect cigarette volume decline of 8-10% in 1H27 and sharp net-realization decline in 1Q27 to result in FY27 volume/ net sales decline of c.5%/ c.11% respectively. We maintain HOLD rating on ITC, valuing the stock at FY28E P/E of 18x (in-line with its current 1-year forward multiple) to arrive at a revised TP of Rs 310 (vs prior Rs 340)," said Systematix.
ITC share price: Shares of ITC Ltd are in a recovery mode after falling to their 52-week low on June 4 this year. The FMCG stock ended 0.34% lower at Rs 290.75 today against the previous close of Rs 291.75. Market cap of the firm stood at Rs 3.64 lakh crore. The stock has slipped 32% from the 52 week high of Rs 426.50 reached on October 31, 2025. It trades near the 52-week low of Rs 275 reached on June 4, 2026.
The stock which fell 12% in 2025 is already down 20% this year, due to a hike in taxes on tobacco in January 2026. However, the stock has gained 6% from its 52 week low till date. Amid the mild recovery, the stock has turned green in terms of 5 day, 10 day and 20 day simple moving averages.
The FMCG stock-among the most tracked retail bets in 2026-has received buy calls from a slew of brokerages.
Kotak Securities has assigned a fair value of Rs 365 to the ITC stock with resistance at Rs 292-Rs 298 and support at Rs 284- Rs 280.
Kotak finds that early trade trends, based on the brokerage's checks, indicate that the volume impact on ITC's cigarette portfolio has been relatively contained (5-10% fall), while the EBIT impact has been significant (30% decline) due to the partial tax absorption and adverse mix shifts, albeit broadly on expected lines.
Kotak has tweaked estimates and increased its SoTP-based fair value to Rs 365 (from Rs 330), which values the cigarette business at 16X September 2028E PE (15X earlier).
"At the CMP, the stock offers a dividend yield of about 4.5% and implies September 2028E PE of 10X for the cigarette business. We estimate an 18% decline in cigarette EBIT in FY2027E, followed by 14% growth in FY2028E," said Kotak.
Brokerage Motilal Oswal assigned a neutral rating to the stock with a price target of Rs 300.
"Positive catalysts such as improving FMCG performance and paperboard margin normalization are overshadowed by the cigarette earnings headwind stemming from illicit competition, constrained pricing flexibility, and the inevitable volume-versus margin trade-off that defines ITC's near-term trajectory," said Motilal Oswal.
Brokerage Systematix has assigned a price target of Rs 310 to the stock against the earlier Rs 340.
"We lower our FY27E-FY28E revenue/ EPS estimates for ITC by 2-4%; we build FY26-FY28E revenue/ EPS CAGR of 6%/ 2%. We expect cigarette volume decline of 8-10% in 1H27 and sharp net-realization decline in 1Q27 to result in FY27 volume/ net sales decline of c.5%/ c.11% respectively. We maintain HOLD rating on ITC, valuing the stock at FY28E P/E of 18x (in-line with its current 1-year forward multiple) to arrive at a revised TP of Rs 310 (vs prior Rs 340)," said Systematix.