Jefferies on India, a happy buyer of Russian oil: Trump, Putin & sanctions risk
Crude oil prices: White House suggested that the so-called secondary tariffs mean 100 per cent tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil.
- Jul 18, 2025,
- Updated Jul 18, 2025 11:23 AM IST
Trade war: Jefferies, in its latest GREED & fear note, said that US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose “secondary tariffs” after a 50-day deadline — unless Russian President Vladimir Putin backs down — could escalate a trade war with both India and China, as both remain "happy buyers" of Russian crude oil.
The foreign brokerage said that the White House suggested that the so-called secondary tariffs mean 100 per cent tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil.
"This is potentially a very big deal, in terms of the potential for a spike in the price of oil since Russian oil production is the equivalent of 25 per cent of global oil exports," Jefferies said.
In the case of India, Russia’s share in India’s crude imports strengthened to 40 per cent in May 2025 against 29 per cent in April 2025 and 40 per cent during September-October 2024 amid US sanctions, JM Financial noted.
The domestic brokerage noted that the discount on Russian crude declined to $2.5 a barrel in May against $2.7 a barrel in April 2025.
On a recent warning by NATO chief of “very hard” secondary sanctions, India's Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri asserted that India feels “no pressure” and would continue sourcing oil based on national interest and consumer needs.
The overall Russian seaborne exports of oil products fell 3.4 per cent month-on-month in June, according to Reuters calculations.
Jefferies said the US president is clearly upset that what he thought was a special relationship with the Russian leader has not resulted in a ceasefire deal as regards the conflict in Ukraine. "In GREED & fear’s view such a hope was always unrealistic since the Russian leader has been entirely consistent on what Moscow’s demands are in terms of any peace deal," Jefferies said.
The foreign brokerage said the renewed threat of tariff escalation as regards China’s purchases of Russian crude comes at a time when the US decision this week to allow Nvidia to sell its H20 chips to China again looks like a clear victory for Beijing’s strategy of linking the rare earth issue with semiconductor controls.
"It is also testimony to the diplomatic skills of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang who has been in Beijing this week meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng," Jefferies said.
Trade war: Jefferies, in its latest GREED & fear note, said that US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose “secondary tariffs” after a 50-day deadline — unless Russian President Vladimir Putin backs down — could escalate a trade war with both India and China, as both remain "happy buyers" of Russian crude oil.
The foreign brokerage said that the White House suggested that the so-called secondary tariffs mean 100 per cent tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil.
"This is potentially a very big deal, in terms of the potential for a spike in the price of oil since Russian oil production is the equivalent of 25 per cent of global oil exports," Jefferies said.
In the case of India, Russia’s share in India’s crude imports strengthened to 40 per cent in May 2025 against 29 per cent in April 2025 and 40 per cent during September-October 2024 amid US sanctions, JM Financial noted.
The domestic brokerage noted that the discount on Russian crude declined to $2.5 a barrel in May against $2.7 a barrel in April 2025.
On a recent warning by NATO chief of “very hard” secondary sanctions, India's Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri asserted that India feels “no pressure” and would continue sourcing oil based on national interest and consumer needs.
The overall Russian seaborne exports of oil products fell 3.4 per cent month-on-month in June, according to Reuters calculations.
Jefferies said the US president is clearly upset that what he thought was a special relationship with the Russian leader has not resulted in a ceasefire deal as regards the conflict in Ukraine. "In GREED & fear’s view such a hope was always unrealistic since the Russian leader has been entirely consistent on what Moscow’s demands are in terms of any peace deal," Jefferies said.
The foreign brokerage said the renewed threat of tariff escalation as regards China’s purchases of Russian crude comes at a time when the US decision this week to allow Nvidia to sell its H20 chips to China again looks like a clear victory for Beijing’s strategy of linking the rare earth issue with semiconductor controls.
"It is also testimony to the diplomatic skills of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang who has been in Beijing this week meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng," Jefferies said.