JSW Energy, Coal India, Skipper among top power picks as demand set to rise in summers
India’s power and utilities sector is entering a period of notable momentum, with Axis Direct identifying several tailwinds supporting sustained growth into 2026.
- Mar 16, 2026,
- Updated Mar 16, 2026 10:49 AM IST
India’s power and utilities sector is entering a period of notable momentum, with Axis Direct identifying several tailwinds supporting sustained growth into 2026. Peak power demand during April 2025 to February 2026 reached 245 GW in January 2026, reflecting a firm structural base driven by industrial activity, appliance penetration, and urbanisation.
While this is slightly below the 250 GW peak registered in May 2024, Axis Direct attributes the difference to a seasonal base effect, as the prior peak was propelled by an intense heatwave and atypical summer conditions. Despite the moderation, the underlying demand remains solid, with energy consumption in February 2026 at 133 BUs, a 1.45 per cent year-on-year rise.
Recent daily generation metrics reinforce this view, with 5,152 MUs recorded on 11 March 2026, up from 4,705 MUs at the start of the month, indicating an accelerating early-summer load build-up. A potential transition from La Niña to El Niño, as highlighted by global climate models and cited by Axis Direct, could further lift demand for thermal power.
El Niño is associated with hotter-than-normal summers and below-average monsoon rainfall. This increases residential and industrial cooling loads and suppresses hydro generation, shifting dispatch towards coal and gas. Higher plant load factors for thermal generators like NTPC, NLC India, JSW Energy, and Coal India could directly boost revenue visibility and utilisation.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts 6.6 per cent electricity demand growth for India in 2026, which Axis Direct highlights as a catalyst for earnings upgrades—especially for companies leveraged to thermal dispatch and coal supply. Transmission infrastructure is also seeing robust expansion.
Central Electricity Authority data shows the addition of 1,262 circuit kilometres (ckm) of inter-state transmission lines and a record 9,500 MVA substation transformation capacity in February 2026. Including intra-state networks, totals reach 1,895 ckm and 12,545 MVA, reflecting a pace aligned with anticipated demand surges.
From April 2025 to February 2026, 9,287 ckm of transmission lines have been added (60 per cent of the full-year target), while 91,408 MVA of substation capacity (73 per cent of FY26’s goal) has been installed. The growth trend over the past three months is seen by Axis Direct as constructive for meeting sector needs and integrating large-scale renewables, note Axis Direct.
Government guidance echoes these developments. The Minister of State for Power stated that peak power demand is projected at 270 GW this summer, an 8 per cent increase over the all-time high of 250 GW in May 2024 and a significant leap from the 245 GW peak in January 2026.
Preparedness to meet future demand is further underlined by a direct assurance from the authorities: "The Ministry of Power has affirmed its preparedness to meet this anticipated peak, reinforcing confidence in supply-side adequacy planning."
Axis Direct sees leading companies—NTPC Ltd, JSW Energy, NLC India Ltd and Coal India Ltd—well-positioned to benefit from the high-demand environment. The combination of structural demand strength, El Niño-driven tailwinds, and ongoing investment in transmission infrastructure are expected to translate into higher plant load factors, improved revenue visibility.
Coal India | Buy | Target Price: Rs 500 Higher international coal prices could pose upside to the e-auction premiums going forward. The possibility of a pick-up in power demand, lower exports from Indonesia, and higher natural gas prices could aid domestic volume growth.
NLC India | Buy | Target Price: Rs 300 As a state-owned lignite-based thermal generator with a growing solar pipeline, NLC stands to gain from elevated dispatch requirements. NLC’s captive fuel security insulates it from coal price volatility, making it a relatively lower-risk play on the thermal demand upcycle.
JSW Energy | Buy | Target Price: Rs 630 JSW Energy’s merchant and long-term PPA portfolio benefits from tighter grid conditions. A probable El Niño-led demand surge, particularly during peak summer months, can drive spot market price premiums and higher merchant realizations. Its diversified asset base across thermal and renewables provides both near-term earnings upside and long-term optionality.
Skipper | Buy | Target Price: Rs 470 Skipper will be beneficiary of the transmission infrastructure pick up. As of December 2025, the order book stood at an all-time high of Rs 9,009 crore, up 42 per cent/2 per cent YoY/QoQ. The order book comprises 78 per cent domestic T&D orders, 12 per cent non-T&D orders, and 10 per cent export orders. It has a strong bid pipeline of over Rs 27,000 crore. The order book has a 2-year execution timeframe, providing strong revenue visibility.
India’s power and utilities sector is entering a period of notable momentum, with Axis Direct identifying several tailwinds supporting sustained growth into 2026. Peak power demand during April 2025 to February 2026 reached 245 GW in January 2026, reflecting a firm structural base driven by industrial activity, appliance penetration, and urbanisation.
While this is slightly below the 250 GW peak registered in May 2024, Axis Direct attributes the difference to a seasonal base effect, as the prior peak was propelled by an intense heatwave and atypical summer conditions. Despite the moderation, the underlying demand remains solid, with energy consumption in February 2026 at 133 BUs, a 1.45 per cent year-on-year rise.
Recent daily generation metrics reinforce this view, with 5,152 MUs recorded on 11 March 2026, up from 4,705 MUs at the start of the month, indicating an accelerating early-summer load build-up. A potential transition from La Niña to El Niño, as highlighted by global climate models and cited by Axis Direct, could further lift demand for thermal power.
El Niño is associated with hotter-than-normal summers and below-average monsoon rainfall. This increases residential and industrial cooling loads and suppresses hydro generation, shifting dispatch towards coal and gas. Higher plant load factors for thermal generators like NTPC, NLC India, JSW Energy, and Coal India could directly boost revenue visibility and utilisation.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts 6.6 per cent electricity demand growth for India in 2026, which Axis Direct highlights as a catalyst for earnings upgrades—especially for companies leveraged to thermal dispatch and coal supply. Transmission infrastructure is also seeing robust expansion.
Central Electricity Authority data shows the addition of 1,262 circuit kilometres (ckm) of inter-state transmission lines and a record 9,500 MVA substation transformation capacity in February 2026. Including intra-state networks, totals reach 1,895 ckm and 12,545 MVA, reflecting a pace aligned with anticipated demand surges.
From April 2025 to February 2026, 9,287 ckm of transmission lines have been added (60 per cent of the full-year target), while 91,408 MVA of substation capacity (73 per cent of FY26’s goal) has been installed. The growth trend over the past three months is seen by Axis Direct as constructive for meeting sector needs and integrating large-scale renewables, note Axis Direct.
Government guidance echoes these developments. The Minister of State for Power stated that peak power demand is projected at 270 GW this summer, an 8 per cent increase over the all-time high of 250 GW in May 2024 and a significant leap from the 245 GW peak in January 2026.
Preparedness to meet future demand is further underlined by a direct assurance from the authorities: "The Ministry of Power has affirmed its preparedness to meet this anticipated peak, reinforcing confidence in supply-side adequacy planning."
Axis Direct sees leading companies—NTPC Ltd, JSW Energy, NLC India Ltd and Coal India Ltd—well-positioned to benefit from the high-demand environment. The combination of structural demand strength, El Niño-driven tailwinds, and ongoing investment in transmission infrastructure are expected to translate into higher plant load factors, improved revenue visibility.
Coal India | Buy | Target Price: Rs 500 Higher international coal prices could pose upside to the e-auction premiums going forward. The possibility of a pick-up in power demand, lower exports from Indonesia, and higher natural gas prices could aid domestic volume growth.
NLC India | Buy | Target Price: Rs 300 As a state-owned lignite-based thermal generator with a growing solar pipeline, NLC stands to gain from elevated dispatch requirements. NLC’s captive fuel security insulates it from coal price volatility, making it a relatively lower-risk play on the thermal demand upcycle.
JSW Energy | Buy | Target Price: Rs 630 JSW Energy’s merchant and long-term PPA portfolio benefits from tighter grid conditions. A probable El Niño-led demand surge, particularly during peak summer months, can drive spot market price premiums and higher merchant realizations. Its diversified asset base across thermal and renewables provides both near-term earnings upside and long-term optionality.
Skipper | Buy | Target Price: Rs 470 Skipper will be beneficiary of the transmission infrastructure pick up. As of December 2025, the order book stood at an all-time high of Rs 9,009 crore, up 42 per cent/2 per cent YoY/QoQ. The order book comprises 78 per cent domestic T&D orders, 12 per cent non-T&D orders, and 10 per cent export orders. It has a strong bid pipeline of over Rs 27,000 crore. The order book has a 2-year execution timeframe, providing strong revenue visibility.