Kaynes Tech shares: JPMorgan's bear case scenario hints at 29% upside
Kaynes Tech's share price has corrected 39 per cent in the past one month against Nifty's 2 per cent rise. It now trades below JPMorgan's bear-case scenario target price.
- Dec 9, 2025,
- Updated Dec 9, 2025 8:33 AM IST
JPMorgan on Tuesday said the recent plunge in shares of Kaynes Technologies has made the stock price fall below its bear case target and that it is now the cheapest stock in its coverage, based on PEG ratio. The foreign brokerage suggested a bear base fair value of Rs 4,900, which hints at 29 per cent potential upside ahead for the stock. Its overall target at Rs 7,550 could see the stock almost doubling from the prevailing levels.
JPMorgan said there has been no change in fundamentals for Kaynes Tech on revenues and margins basis, but one of the key concerns on the stock has been stretched working capital and receivables post the September quarter results.
Kaynes' share price has corrected 39 per cent in the past one month vs Nifty's 2 per cent rise and now trades below JPM's bear-case scenario.
"1H26 NWC stood at 116 days vs 87 in FY25 due to the increase in smart meter contribution to revenues that operates at a higher 90-1 20 days cycle compared to the core business at 60-90 days. Hence, in our bear case we assume in our DCF a NWC of 1 1 6 days over FY26-35E vs the base case of 75 days, meaning no improvement at all, which drives bear-case fair value of Rs 4,900 (29% potential upside from CMP)," JPMorgan said.
It said Kaynes Tech stock now trades at 0.7 times PEG, the cheapest in its coverage. This is against its peer average of l times.
"We remain OW and expect improving receivables and NWC over the next two quarters to be key drivers of the stock," it said.
In the call on December 8, the company management highlighted that of the Rs 1,360 crore in total receivables as of 2026, smart meter contribution was Rs 690 crore, and within that as well Rs 240 crore pertains to legacy receivables, for which it plans to do discounting to collect the cash by end March 2026.
"It also highlighted that the smart meter contribution to revenues should come down in 2H (we estimate 11 per cent) vs 28 per cent in 1H, which should also help bring down receivable days as the core business operates at a lower 60-90 days cycle vs smart meters at 90-120 days," it said.
JPMorgan on Tuesday said the recent plunge in shares of Kaynes Technologies has made the stock price fall below its bear case target and that it is now the cheapest stock in its coverage, based on PEG ratio. The foreign brokerage suggested a bear base fair value of Rs 4,900, which hints at 29 per cent potential upside ahead for the stock. Its overall target at Rs 7,550 could see the stock almost doubling from the prevailing levels.
JPMorgan said there has been no change in fundamentals for Kaynes Tech on revenues and margins basis, but one of the key concerns on the stock has been stretched working capital and receivables post the September quarter results.
Kaynes' share price has corrected 39 per cent in the past one month vs Nifty's 2 per cent rise and now trades below JPM's bear-case scenario.
"1H26 NWC stood at 116 days vs 87 in FY25 due to the increase in smart meter contribution to revenues that operates at a higher 90-1 20 days cycle compared to the core business at 60-90 days. Hence, in our bear case we assume in our DCF a NWC of 1 1 6 days over FY26-35E vs the base case of 75 days, meaning no improvement at all, which drives bear-case fair value of Rs 4,900 (29% potential upside from CMP)," JPMorgan said.
It said Kaynes Tech stock now trades at 0.7 times PEG, the cheapest in its coverage. This is against its peer average of l times.
"We remain OW and expect improving receivables and NWC over the next two quarters to be key drivers of the stock," it said.
In the call on December 8, the company management highlighted that of the Rs 1,360 crore in total receivables as of 2026, smart meter contribution was Rs 690 crore, and within that as well Rs 240 crore pertains to legacy receivables, for which it plans to do discounting to collect the cash by end March 2026.
"It also highlighted that the smart meter contribution to revenues should come down in 2H (we estimate 11 per cent) vs 28 per cent in 1H, which should also help bring down receivable days as the core business operates at a lower 60-90 days cycle vs smart meters at 90-120 days," it said.