Maruti Victoris launch: MSIL price target, volume estimates; Creta, Kia Seltos comparison

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) has launched the Victoris, its new mid-size SUV positioned against Hyundai’s Creta and Kia’s Seltos. With an introductory price of Rs 10.5 lakh, the model will go on sale from September 22, 2025. Analysts believe the Victoris could stand out on sharp pricing, multiple powertrain options, advanced safety tech and premium features.

According to JM Financial, while rivals offer similar petrol engine capacities, the Victoris and Grand Vitara are the only models in the segment with strong hybrid and factory-fitted CNG options. The Victoris also carries a 5-star Global NCAP rating, compared with the Creta and Seltos’ 3-star ratings, and becomes the first Arena model to feature Level-2 ADAS. JM called it a “well-rounded package that blends affordability, innovation and safety.”

Nomura India noted that the Victoris will add breadth to Maruti’s SUV portfolio, enhancing its technology and safety positioning. Grand Vitara volumes have slipped to 7,000–8,000 units a month over the past six months, compared with 10,000 units earlier. Nomura expects combined volumes of 15,000 units per month for the Victoris and Grand Vitara ahead. A higher mix of the Victoris should aid margins since the Grand Vitara is manufactured at Toyota’s plant.

The brokerage is factoring in 9 per cent and 6 per cent year-on-year overall volume growth for MSIL in FY26F and FY27F, implying monthly run-rates of 2,20,000 units for the remaining FY26F period, up 14 per cent year-on-year. Nomura remained ‘Neutral’ on MSIL with a target price of Rs 15,031.

JM Financial, meanwhile, highlighted that Victoris will be manufactured exclusively in India and exported globally, supporting MSIL’s international ambitions. The recent GST rate cut on small cars is also a tailwind for MSIL, with 69 per cent of its portfolio in this segment. JM raised its volume estimates by 4.1 per cent/8.8 per cent for FY26E/FY27E, Ebitda margins to 12.1 per cent/12.8 per cent, and EPS forecasts by 9.1 per cent/17.5 per cent, leading to a revised March 2027 fair value of Rs 18,050. It maintained a Buy rating.