Mazagon Dock: Antique cuts MDL target price but maintains 'Buy'
MDL’s current order book of Rs 25,000 crore is expected to rise to Rs 1,00,000 crore by the end of FY26 with the signing of the P-75I submarine project.
- Jan 2, 2026,
- Updated Jan 2, 2026 11:14 AM IST
Antique Stock Broking on Friday said it remained constructive on Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd (MDL) despite procedural delays in awarding certain large-ticket naval orders, which led it to cut earnings estimates and the target price on the stock. The brokerage has revised earnings estimates down by 1.9 per cent, 6.9 per cent and 12.7 per cent for FY26, FY27 and FY28 due to slippages in Project-75 submarines and P17B Frigates, although management expects progress on these orders by Q1FY27.
MDL’s current order book of Rs 25,000 crore is expected to rise to Rs 1,00,000 crore by the end of FY26 with the signing of the P-75I submarine project. Antique maintained a 'Buy' rating on MDL, with a revised target price of Rs 3,407 at 42 times FY28 core earnings, down from the earlier Rs 3,858 at 47 times 1HFY28 core earnings.
The company’s order pipeline remains robust. Upcoming requests for proposals include Mine Counter Measure Vessels (Rs 40,000 crore), Landing Platform Docks (Rs 40,000 crore), and NG-Destroyer or P-15C (Rs 70,000 crore). MDL is expected to be strongly positioned for the Landing Platform Docks in a joint bid with Swan Defence. Antique estimates the total order funnel at over Rs 2,50,000 crore, nearly ten times the current order book, excluding commercial, export, and smaller vessel opportunities. The company is also in discussions with the Naval Group, France, for a Scorpene-class submarine for an Asian country, Antique noted.
From an industry perspective, the Indian defence shipbuilding sector is supported by the Navy and Coast Guard’s plans to expand each fleet to around 200 ships. India’s commercial shipbuilding segment also offers significant potential, estimated at Rs 12,000-15,000 crore per year, covering container vessels, coastal shipping, dredgers, ferries, cruises, and oil and gas carriers. Government initiatives such as the Shipbuilding Financial Assistance Scheme and the Shipbuilding Development Scheme aim to provide financial support and capital grants for shipbuilding clusters, aligned with the Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 targets.
Despite procedural delays, Antique Stock Broking views MDL as well-positioned to benefit from its large naval and commercial order pipeline, strong submarine-building expertise, and supportive government initiatives, maintaining a positive long-term outlook for the stock.
"We remain positive on the stock given its large order pipeline, strong position in submarine building, and government focus on developing the shipbuilding sector. We maintain Buy rating on the stock with a TP of INR 3,407 (earlier INR 3,858) at a target P/E multiple of 42 times FY28 core earnings (earlier 47 times 1HFY28 core earnings)," Antique said.
Antique Stock Broking on Friday said it remained constructive on Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd (MDL) despite procedural delays in awarding certain large-ticket naval orders, which led it to cut earnings estimates and the target price on the stock. The brokerage has revised earnings estimates down by 1.9 per cent, 6.9 per cent and 12.7 per cent for FY26, FY27 and FY28 due to slippages in Project-75 submarines and P17B Frigates, although management expects progress on these orders by Q1FY27.
MDL’s current order book of Rs 25,000 crore is expected to rise to Rs 1,00,000 crore by the end of FY26 with the signing of the P-75I submarine project. Antique maintained a 'Buy' rating on MDL, with a revised target price of Rs 3,407 at 42 times FY28 core earnings, down from the earlier Rs 3,858 at 47 times 1HFY28 core earnings.
The company’s order pipeline remains robust. Upcoming requests for proposals include Mine Counter Measure Vessels (Rs 40,000 crore), Landing Platform Docks (Rs 40,000 crore), and NG-Destroyer or P-15C (Rs 70,000 crore). MDL is expected to be strongly positioned for the Landing Platform Docks in a joint bid with Swan Defence. Antique estimates the total order funnel at over Rs 2,50,000 crore, nearly ten times the current order book, excluding commercial, export, and smaller vessel opportunities. The company is also in discussions with the Naval Group, France, for a Scorpene-class submarine for an Asian country, Antique noted.
From an industry perspective, the Indian defence shipbuilding sector is supported by the Navy and Coast Guard’s plans to expand each fleet to around 200 ships. India’s commercial shipbuilding segment also offers significant potential, estimated at Rs 12,000-15,000 crore per year, covering container vessels, coastal shipping, dredgers, ferries, cruises, and oil and gas carriers. Government initiatives such as the Shipbuilding Financial Assistance Scheme and the Shipbuilding Development Scheme aim to provide financial support and capital grants for shipbuilding clusters, aligned with the Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 targets.
Despite procedural delays, Antique Stock Broking views MDL as well-positioned to benefit from its large naval and commercial order pipeline, strong submarine-building expertise, and supportive government initiatives, maintaining a positive long-term outlook for the stock.
"We remain positive on the stock given its large order pipeline, strong position in submarine building, and government focus on developing the shipbuilding sector. We maintain Buy rating on the stock with a TP of INR 3,407 (earlier INR 3,858) at a target P/E multiple of 42 times FY28 core earnings (earlier 47 times 1HFY28 core earnings)," Antique said.