MCX shares rally 60% in six months; HDFC Securities reiterates 'Buy' on strong bullion-led growth
HDFC Securities expects bullion's share to rise to 40 per cent of total premium by Q4 FY27E, reducing concentration risk from crude and natural gas contracts, which earlier held about 85 per cent share.
- Oct 13, 2025,
- Updated Oct 13, 2025 5:21 PM IST
Shares of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) rose 3.07 per cent to close at Rs 8,955 on Monday, marking a 60.44 per cent gain over the past six months.
Brokerage firm HDFC Securities has maintained its 'Buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 10,000, citing strong momentum in bullion trading and robust growth prospects.
"MCX continues to present a compelling growth story driven by new product launches, a solid product pipeline, technology upgrades, and rising participation," the brokerage said in its latest note. It added that gold and silver options have emerged as major growth contributors.
The report noted that options premium average daily trading volume (ADTV) surged to about Rs 6,700 crore in October 2025, compared with Rs 4,100 crore in Q2 FY25, supported by higher gold and silver volumes. Bullion contracts now contribute around 60 per cent of total notional volume and 30 per cent of premium ADTV, up sharply after the shift to monthly expiries.
HDFC Securities expects bullion's share to rise to 40 per cent of total premium by Q4 FY27E, reducing concentration risk from crude and natural gas contracts, which earlier held about 85 per cent share.
The brokerage also highlighted the upcoming launch of cash-settled index contracts, such as Metldex and Bulldex, as potential growth drivers that could attract higher foreign portfolio investor (FPI) and institutional participation.
Additionally, Sebi's plans to permit FPI and domestic institutional participation in non-cash settled commodities, along with the development of co-location facilities, are expected to enhance high-frequency trading (HFT) activity and market depth.
HDFC Securities projects notional and premium ADTV to grow at a 62 per cent and 33 per cent CAGR, respectively, driving revenue and PAT growth of 27 per cent and 33 per cent over FY25–FY28E. It has raised its revenue and EPS estimates by 7–9 per cent and increased its valuation multiple to 46x from 45x earlier.
Shares of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) rose 3.07 per cent to close at Rs 8,955 on Monday, marking a 60.44 per cent gain over the past six months.
Brokerage firm HDFC Securities has maintained its 'Buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 10,000, citing strong momentum in bullion trading and robust growth prospects.
"MCX continues to present a compelling growth story driven by new product launches, a solid product pipeline, technology upgrades, and rising participation," the brokerage said in its latest note. It added that gold and silver options have emerged as major growth contributors.
The report noted that options premium average daily trading volume (ADTV) surged to about Rs 6,700 crore in October 2025, compared with Rs 4,100 crore in Q2 FY25, supported by higher gold and silver volumes. Bullion contracts now contribute around 60 per cent of total notional volume and 30 per cent of premium ADTV, up sharply after the shift to monthly expiries.
HDFC Securities expects bullion's share to rise to 40 per cent of total premium by Q4 FY27E, reducing concentration risk from crude and natural gas contracts, which earlier held about 85 per cent share.
The brokerage also highlighted the upcoming launch of cash-settled index contracts, such as Metldex and Bulldex, as potential growth drivers that could attract higher foreign portfolio investor (FPI) and institutional participation.
Additionally, Sebi's plans to permit FPI and domestic institutional participation in non-cash settled commodities, along with the development of co-location facilities, are expected to enhance high-frequency trading (HFT) activity and market depth.
HDFC Securities projects notional and premium ADTV to grow at a 62 per cent and 33 per cent CAGR, respectively, driving revenue and PAT growth of 27 per cent and 33 per cent over FY25–FY28E. It has raised its revenue and EPS estimates by 7–9 per cent and increased its valuation multiple to 46x from 45x earlier.