Multibagger stock: MCX shares up 164% in one year; targets after a 'superlative' Q4
MCX share: Volume moderation is likely after a superlative Q4. The Q4 performance reflects healthy structural trends, but durability of volumes remain key for re-rating.
- May 12, 2026,
- Updated May 12, 2026 12:27 PM IST
Multibagger stock: Upside for Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) shares looked capped, fresh price targets by stock analysts suggest, as valuations look stretched after a 164 per cent rally on the counter in the past one year. Volume moderation is likely after a superlative Q4, said one brokerage. The Q4 performance reflects healthy structural trends, but durability of volumes will remain key for further re-rating, said another broking firm.
"MCX remains a compelling structural play, supported by dominant market share, product innovation, and technology investments aimed at deepening commodity market participation. But having outperformed (70 per cent since our initiation), we believe the risk-reward is more balanced. Thus, we revise to Accumulate from Buy with a higher target of Rs 3,409 as we roll forward to March 2028E," Elara Securities said.
On Tuesday, the scrip was trading 0.56 per cent higher at Rs 3,205.90. The multibagger stock has zoomed 956 per cent in the past five years.
ICICI Securities, which called MCX's Q4 results as 'superlative', said while increased participation is a structural opportunity, current valuations capture the medium-term upside well. It downgraded MCX to 'Hold' from Add and suggested a target price of Rs 3,150.
MOFSL said MCX continued to strengthen its product pipeline across metals, energy, and commodity indices, with focus on commodity index futures alongside options. That said it cut its EPS estimates for FY27 and FY28 by 4-6 per cent to factor in current volume trends and higher costs. "We reiterate a Neutral rating on the stock with a one-year target of Rs 2,850.
HDFC Institutional Equities, meanwhile, is positive on the stock. It noted that bullion volumes corrected 50 per cent January-April, but were offset by strong crude traction.
"A key structural driver has been the 64 per cent YoY growth in traded options UCCs, significantly boosting participation through digital brokers and improved retail experience. This growth appears structural, supported by product innovation, improved expiry frameworks, focus on domestic price discovery, and rising hedging activity among SMEs and corporates," HDFC Institutional Equities said.
It expects the momentum to sustain, with FY27E drivers including growth in traded UCCs, continued commodity volatility, new contract launches, and regulatory tailwinds such as institutional participation in non-cash settled contracts, which should further aid traction in index options.
"We estimate FY27E options premium ADTV to be 43 pr cent higher YoY vs FY26 but 12 per cent lower than Q4 exit levels and raise FY27/28E EPS estimates by 5/10 per cent, maintaining BUY with a target of Rs 3,750," it said.
Multibagger stock: Upside for Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) shares looked capped, fresh price targets by stock analysts suggest, as valuations look stretched after a 164 per cent rally on the counter in the past one year. Volume moderation is likely after a superlative Q4, said one brokerage. The Q4 performance reflects healthy structural trends, but durability of volumes will remain key for further re-rating, said another broking firm.
"MCX remains a compelling structural play, supported by dominant market share, product innovation, and technology investments aimed at deepening commodity market participation. But having outperformed (70 per cent since our initiation), we believe the risk-reward is more balanced. Thus, we revise to Accumulate from Buy with a higher target of Rs 3,409 as we roll forward to March 2028E," Elara Securities said.
On Tuesday, the scrip was trading 0.56 per cent higher at Rs 3,205.90. The multibagger stock has zoomed 956 per cent in the past five years.
ICICI Securities, which called MCX's Q4 results as 'superlative', said while increased participation is a structural opportunity, current valuations capture the medium-term upside well. It downgraded MCX to 'Hold' from Add and suggested a target price of Rs 3,150.
MOFSL said MCX continued to strengthen its product pipeline across metals, energy, and commodity indices, with focus on commodity index futures alongside options. That said it cut its EPS estimates for FY27 and FY28 by 4-6 per cent to factor in current volume trends and higher costs. "We reiterate a Neutral rating on the stock with a one-year target of Rs 2,850.
HDFC Institutional Equities, meanwhile, is positive on the stock. It noted that bullion volumes corrected 50 per cent January-April, but were offset by strong crude traction.
"A key structural driver has been the 64 per cent YoY growth in traded options UCCs, significantly boosting participation through digital brokers and improved retail experience. This growth appears structural, supported by product innovation, improved expiry frameworks, focus on domestic price discovery, and rising hedging activity among SMEs and corporates," HDFC Institutional Equities said.
It expects the momentum to sustain, with FY27E drivers including growth in traded UCCs, continued commodity volatility, new contract launches, and regulatory tailwinds such as institutional participation in non-cash settled contracts, which should further aid traction in index options.
"We estimate FY27E options premium ADTV to be 43 pr cent higher YoY vs FY26 but 12 per cent lower than Q4 exit levels and raise FY27/28E EPS estimates by 5/10 per cent, maintaining BUY with a target of Rs 3,750," it said.