Nifty, Bank Nifty: Budget day stock market returns since 2010. Full table

Nifty has delivered a modest 0.19 per cent average return on Budget days since 2010, data compiled by SAMCO Securities suggest. Widely-tracked Nifty Bank delivered an average return of 0.42 on Budget days since 2010, the brokerage noted. The data included interim Budgets of 2014, 2019 and 2024. As per Samco Securities, Nifty delivered modest negative returns ranging 0.11-0.13 per cent in the past three Budgets of 2025 (FY26), 2024 (interim and full FY25) and 2023 (FY24). 

In the case of Nifty Bank, the index fell 0.16 per cent on February 1, 2025. It declined 0.96 per cent on the day the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her full-year Budget for 2024-25. The banking index rose 0.42 per cent on interim Budget day earlier in February 2024.

The Budget 2026 will be presented on Sunday, February 1. Stock exchanges NSE and BSE will have a normal trading session for the day.

FULL COVERAGE:  Union Budget 2026

Union Budget days tend to attract disproportionate attention, but historical data suggests that the real market story often unfolds after the Budget rather than on the day itself, said Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities.

"Looking at data since 2010, both Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank show muted and inconsistent reactions on the Budget day. The average Budget day move stands at just 0.19 per cent for Nifty and 0.42 per cent for Nifty Bank, reinforcing the idea that Budget day volatility is more noise than signal. Outcomes vary widely across years, driven by positioning and expectations rather than announcements alone," he said.

Sheth said Budget day itself is rarely the opportunity, adding that patience pays Historically. "Volatility before the Budget often creates positioning opportunities, while the period after the Budget has delivered more consistent returns. For investors, reacting less and positioning better has mattered far more than predicting Budget headlines," he said.