Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 63 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are expected to remain under pressure as elevated crude oil prices and rising US Treasury yields, amid persistent geopolitical tensions in West Asia, continue to cloud the global macroeconomic outlook. The combination of elevated energy prices and firming bond yields may weigh on the risk appetite subdued and emerging-markets like India.

Indian equities may remain under pressure amid weak global cues, a sharp rise in crude prices and continued concerns over supply disruptions following the latest escalation in US-Iran hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude crossed $100 mark today amid intensifying Middle East tensions raised concerns over global supplies, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 62.20 points, or 0.26 per cent, down at 23,490, hinting at a weak start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian stocks slid on Thursday as the biggest wave of attacks on shipping in the widening ​war. Hang Seng and KOSPI tumbled up to 1.5 per cent each, while Nikkei was down nearly a per cent.

US stocks closed lower on Wednesday ​as oil prices soared above $100 a barrel, ahead of crucial inflation data ‌expected later in the week. The S&P 500 declined 0.48 per cent to end the session at 7,636.46 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.64 per cent to 26,253.34 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.77 per cent to 52,381.02 points.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more Brent crude futures edged up to $101.4 per barrel in early trading, having broken through the psychologically crucial $100 mark on Wednesday. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields held steady at 4.8406 per cent. The US dollar index held steady at 98.74 mark, while gold prices inched higher above $4,414 an ounce.

Investor sentiment remained fragile as Brent crude moved higher amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We maintain a negative stance on the index and recommend a selective, stock-specific approach, with positions on both sides and strict risk management."

FII-DII flows Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 582.99 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,509.04 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX The market is still holding a lower high-lower low formation on daily and intraday charts, and it has formed a bearish candle on daily charts, which supports further weakness from the current levels, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"For day traders, 23,550/75,300 would act as immediate resistance zones. As long as the market is trading below these levels, weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, the market could slip to 23,300-23,200 / 74,300-74,000. On the flip side, above 23,550/75,300, the bounce could continue till 23,650-23,700 / 75,500-75,800," it added.

Nifty has slipped below the previous swing low on the daily chart. The RSI has also slipped into the oversold zone. Though the trend remains weak, if the Nifty manages to hold above 23,500 on Thursday, a meaningful recovery could be seen. However, a fall below 23,400 might trigger further correction," said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

Sensex has slipped below the 75,000 and closed near the lower end of the day’s range, indicating weakness in the short-term structure, said Sachin Gupta, VP of Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking. "The immediate support is placed at 74,500–74,600, while 75,000–75,200 remains the key resistance zone. The broader trading range is likely to remain between 74,500 and 75,200."

The derivatives structure supports a sell-on-rise bias until the index shows a decisive recovery. Meanwhile, India VIX surged 6.81 per cent to 11.92, signalling a pickup in volatility alongside the breakdown, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.

Nifty Bank outlook Nifty Bank formed a bearish candle with an upper wick, indicating a lack of buying strength. With four consecutive sessions of negative closing, the near-term stance remains bearish. The daily RSI has slipped below 40, while it continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, said  Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going forward, the 55,900–55,800 zone could act as a crucial support area. A sustained breach below 55,800 could pave the way towards 55,400 levels. On the upside, the 56,800–56,900 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle, while a sustained move above 56,900 could extend the pullback towards 57,300 levels," he added.

Nifty Bank on the daily chart formed a third consecutive sizable bearish candle with a lower high and a lower low signaling continuation of the corrective decline with the index closing below the 56,500 levels. It is placed at the lower band of the 10-week range 56,000-58,700. A weakness below 56,000 levels will signal extension of the corrective decline towards 55,300 and 54,800, said Bajaj Broking.

"Immediate bias in the index continues to remain down and only a formation of higher high and higher low on a sustained basis in the daily chart will signal a pause in the current down trend. While sustaining above 56,000 levels on a closing basis will signal continuation of the last 10 weeks consolidation,' it added.