Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 135 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open higher on Thursday, supported by a sharp drop in oil prices as investors assess signs that the US ​may be nearing a deal with Iran to end the Middle ‌East conflict. US President Donald ​Trump said on Wednesday that negotiations with Iran were in their final ⁠stages.

Markets are likely to remain cautious in the near term, amid an unfavourable macro backdrop marked by continued weakness in the rupee, elevated Brent crude prices and high US bond yields, all of which are tightening financial conditions and weighing on sentiment, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.  

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks GIFT Nifty Futures or Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 134.50 points, or 0.57 per cent, up at 23,803, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Thursday. Stocks rose on Thursday as some vessels resumed passage through the ​Strait of Hormuz. KOSPI zoomed more than 6 per cent, while Nikkei surged nearly 4 per cent. Hang Seng rose nearly a per cent.

Wall Street's main indexes rallied on Wednesday, bouncing back from a selloff with ​a boost in sentiment from technology and chip stocks, which rose ahead of Nvidia's quarterly results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.31 per cent to 50,009.35, the S&P 500 gained 1.08 per cent to 7,432.97 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped ​1.55 per cent, to 26,270.36.  

Crude, US dollar, gold & more Brent crude futures edged up 0.7 per cent to $105.76 a barrel in Asia trade. Bitcoin was down 0.3 per cent at $77,453.44, while ether was 0.3 per cent lower at $2,127.53. The US dollar hovered below a six-week peak on Thursday as the dollar index was flat at 99.128 after touching 99.472 on Wednesday. Gold held steady on Thursday as spot gold was unchanged at $4,543.96.

Investors remained cautious ahead of key global macroeconomic data releases and continued to track stock-specific earnings reactions, which contributed to heightened volatility across sectors, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.  "We continue to recommend a sector-specific trading approach with a strong emphasis on overnight risk management."  

FII-DII flows Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,597.35 crore on Wednesday . On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,968.35 crore on a net-net basis.  

Nifty50, VIX & Sensex outlook The market took support near 23,400/74,500 and bounced back sharply. The short-term market texture is non-directional, and this non-directional activity is likely to continue in the near future. 24,500/75,000 and 24,400/74,500 would act as immediate support zones, while 23,800-23,850/75,800-76,000 could be the key resistance areas for the bulls, said  Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the higher side, post-23,850/76,000, the market could move up to 23,950-24,000/76,300-76,500, while a failure to hold 23,400/74,500 could push the market towards 23,250-23,200/74,200-74,000. As the intraday market texture is non-directional, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders," he added.

Sensex is still witnessing range-bound movement with support placed around the 74,100–74,400 zone, while immediate resistance is positioned near the 76,000–76,200 zone. This structure indicates consolidation after recent sharp swings, and traders may wait for a decisive breakout on either side for directional clarity, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking.

Bank Nifty formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart, indicating buying interest at lower levels, The setup indicates the possibility of a mild recovery in the upcoming sessions towards the 54,200 mark, said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "The immediate support is placed at 53,000, while positional support stands at 52,800. Resistance is seen in the 54,200–54,400 zone."

The volatility index, India VIX , cooled off by 2 per cent to 18.30 levels, and any further decline in volatility is likely to provide additional comfort to the bulls., said Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research, Centrum Finverse.  

Bank Nifty View Nifty Bank witnessed a breakout from the consolidation zone and gradually moved higher. Despite the strong intraday move, Nifty Bank continues to trade significantly below its key moving averages. The RSI is placed slightly above the 40 mark, indicating the absence of strong directional momentum, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 53,100-53,000 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 52,700, followed by 52,400 in the short term. On the upside, the immediate resistance for the Index is placed in the 53,900-54,000 zone," it added.

Nifty Bank formed a bullish candle with a lower high and a lower low highlighting strong pullback after a gap down opening and closed near the day’s high. Index for the second time in the last three sessions has rebounded from near the key support area highlighting buying demand at lower levels. Index likely to consolidate in the range of 52,700-54,700, said Bajaj Broking.

"Nifty Bank holding above the key support area of 52,700-52,400 will lead to a pullback towards the recent breakdown area of 54,000 and 54,700. However, Index need to form higher high and higher low on a sustained basis in the daily chart and a move above the breakdown area of 54,400-54,700 to signal a pause in the recent downtrend," it added.