Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 15 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open on a flat note, bucking the global optimism around the eased geopolitical tensions, decline in the crude oil prices and upbeat Q4 earnings. However, persistent FII outflows in the weakness in the Indian rupee continue to weigh on the market sentiments.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks

GIFT Nifty Futures or Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 15.10 points, or 0.06 per cent, up at 24,462.50, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian stocks soared to record highs on Thursday. Nikkei zoomed nearly 6 per cent, while Hang Seng was up more than a per cent. KOSPI also inched higher.

The near-term market narrative has shifted meaningfully. Diplomatic signals emerging from the West Asia conflict have turned increasingly constructive, amid reports that US and Iran are close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum aimed at ending the war, thereby improving global risk sentiment, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services

US stocks surged on Wednesday, buoyed by signs of a resolution in the Middle East conflict and rally in chipmakers and other AI-related stocks. The S&P 500 climbed 1.46 per cent to end the session at 7,365.09 points. The Nasdaq gained 2.03 per cent to 25,838.94 points, while the ‌Dow Jones ⁠Industrial Average rose 1.24 per cent to 49,910.59 points.  

Crude, US dollar, gold & more

A ​potential deal to end the war sent oil prices sliding nearly 8 per cent on Wednesday. Brent crude was a touch higher at $102.11 a barrel in early Asian hours on Thursday. In currency markets, the dollar index was at 98.032. Gold prices held largely steady near a one-week high on Thursday as spot gold was largely unchanged at $4,688.16 per ‌ounce.

Positive global cues from US markets and stock-specific earnings momentum further aided the upmove, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders should maintain a positive yet cautious stance, focusing on stock-specific opportunities across sectors, while closely monitoring crude oil prices and geopolitical developments for further directional cues."  

FII-DII flows

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 5,834.90 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 6,836.87 crore on a net-net basis.  

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Technically, the market took support near 24,000/76,800 and bounced back sharply. It also formed a long bullish candle on the daily charts, and after a long time, it succeeded in closing above the 24,200/77,500 resistance mark, which is largely positive. The uptrend formation is likely to continue in the near future, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"For traders, 24,200/77,500 and 24,100/77,300 would be crucial support zones. As long as the market is trading above these levels, the uptrend wave is likely to continue. On the higher side, the rally could extend till 24,500–24,600/78,300-78,500. However, below 24,100/77,300, the uptrend would become vulnerable. Below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions," he said.

The markets staged a strong rebound, with Nifty closing above the immediate resistance at 24,300 levels. The index has established a strong support zone around 24,000, which aligns with both the 21-DMA and 50-DMA, said Nilesh Jain, VP of Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse.

"Nifty has broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, indicating a positive shift in the short-term structure with potential upside towards 24,500 levels. On the volatility front, India VIX declined sharply by 7 per cent, slipping below the 17 mark to a one-month low. Continued easing in volatility is likely to further support the ongoing bullish momentum," it added.  

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a sizable bullish candle with a prominent lower wick, indicating buying interest at lower levels. The index had been consolidating within the 55,602–54,222 range and had delivered a decisive breakout above this zone. Importantly, it is signaling improving momentum, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 56,300-56,400 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 56700, followed by 57,000 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Nifty is placed in the 55,600-55,500 zone," he adds.

Nifty Bank formed a strong bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low highlighting buying demand from the key support area of 54,000-54,400. It generated a breakout above the upper band of the falling channel containing the last nine sessions corrective decline signalling resumption of up move, Bajaj Broking said.

"It is currently placed around last week's high of 56,475. A follow through strength above the same will open further upside towards 57,500 levels in the coming weeks. It has key support around 54,000 levels being the confluence of the recent low and 38.2 per cent retracement of the last 3 weeks pullback," it added.