Nifty weekly expiry: Kotak suggests short strangle; check trade setup, target, stop loss
Nifty is expected to trade in a 24,000-24,300 range during weekly expiry amid rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Key levels and strategy inside.
- Jul 14, 2026,
- Updated Jul 14, 2026 8:54 AM IST
Indian benchmark indices staged a smart recovery on Monday but the weekly expiry is set to begin on a volatilie note considering the fresh bouts of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which pushed the crude oil price above $85 per barrel. However, selective buying of the overseas investors is a major silver lining for the Indian equities.
However, the rising crude oil price is a negative for Indian economy, where the retail inflation has breached the RBI's target for the first time in 17 months, government data showed, setting the stage for interest rate hikes. Higher crude oil prices puts pressure on the Indian rupee, dampen the fiscal maths and hurt corporate margins.
Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Derivatives Research at Kotak Securities believes that Nifty has displayed resilience by successfully defending those levels and recovering towards the 24,260 mark, following a positive reversal from last week's lows of around 23,805.
Technically, the index is now approaching an important resistance zone between 24,300 and 24,350, where an unfilled gap on the charts is likely to act as an immediate overhead supply area. On the downside, 24,000-24,050 remains the first line of support, while 23,800 continues to be a strong secondary support level, he said.
"The derivatives data also points towards a range-bound market. Open Interest (OI) remains heavily concentrated at the 24,500 Call strike and the 24,000 Put strike, indicating that option writers are expecting these levels to act as strong resistance and support respectively," said Agrawal.
To recall, the Nifty50 settled at 24,211, adding only 4.10 points, or 0.02 per cent, on Monday. The Nifty Bank index rose 85.55 points, or 0.15 per cent, to end the session at 58,131.45, while the volatility gauge, India VIX, spiked sharply by 8.4 per cent to 13.28 levels.
"This positioning suggests that although the probability of a sharp downside appears limited, the upside may also remain capped. Further , there is detriment in the market breadth numbers and participation. As a result, the overall data pointers indicates a likely trading range of 24,000-24,300 for this expiry session, with both boundaries expected to hold on a closing basis, noted the analyst.
Given this setup, he has suggested traders to consider deploying a short strangle strategy to capitalize on accelerated Theta (time decay) during the final trading session before expiry. He has suggested to sell a 24,500 call and 23,800 put in Nifty with an tentative inflow of 17.70. Stop loss for the same is kept at Rs 35, while the entire premium decay is seen target as the target for the same.
Indian benchmark indices staged a smart recovery on Monday but the weekly expiry is set to begin on a volatilie note considering the fresh bouts of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which pushed the crude oil price above $85 per barrel. However, selective buying of the overseas investors is a major silver lining for the Indian equities.
However, the rising crude oil price is a negative for Indian economy, where the retail inflation has breached the RBI's target for the first time in 17 months, government data showed, setting the stage for interest rate hikes. Higher crude oil prices puts pressure on the Indian rupee, dampen the fiscal maths and hurt corporate margins.
Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Derivatives Research at Kotak Securities believes that Nifty has displayed resilience by successfully defending those levels and recovering towards the 24,260 mark, following a positive reversal from last week's lows of around 23,805.
Technically, the index is now approaching an important resistance zone between 24,300 and 24,350, where an unfilled gap on the charts is likely to act as an immediate overhead supply area. On the downside, 24,000-24,050 remains the first line of support, while 23,800 continues to be a strong secondary support level, he said.
"The derivatives data also points towards a range-bound market. Open Interest (OI) remains heavily concentrated at the 24,500 Call strike and the 24,000 Put strike, indicating that option writers are expecting these levels to act as strong resistance and support respectively," said Agrawal.
To recall, the Nifty50 settled at 24,211, adding only 4.10 points, or 0.02 per cent, on Monday. The Nifty Bank index rose 85.55 points, or 0.15 per cent, to end the session at 58,131.45, while the volatility gauge, India VIX, spiked sharply by 8.4 per cent to 13.28 levels.
"This positioning suggests that although the probability of a sharp downside appears limited, the upside may also remain capped. Further , there is detriment in the market breadth numbers and participation. As a result, the overall data pointers indicates a likely trading range of 24,000-24,300 for this expiry session, with both boundaries expected to hold on a closing basis, noted the analyst.
Given this setup, he has suggested traders to consider deploying a short strangle strategy to capitalize on accelerated Theta (time decay) during the final trading session before expiry. He has suggested to sell a 24,500 call and 23,800 put in Nifty with an tentative inflow of 17.70. Stop loss for the same is kept at Rs 35, while the entire premium decay is seen target as the target for the same.