NMDC shares: Brokerages raise target prices after Q4 earnings; NMDC Steel turns profitable
At current levels, MOFSL said the stock trades at 6.1 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA and 1.7 times FY28 estimated price-to-book (P/B) value. The brokerage reiterated its 'Buy' rating with an increased target price of Rs 106, based on 7 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA.
- Jun 2, 2026,
- Updated Jun 2, 2026 11:19 AM IST
Select brokerages revised their target prices for NMDC Ltd following the state-owned iron ore producer's March quarter (Q4 FY26) earnings.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) said, "NMDC's reported consolidated revenue stood at Rs 11,300 crore, driven by third-party value-added sales of Rs 3,000 crore in Q4 FY26. The company undertook a temporary HR coil trading arrangement to support the working capital requirements of NMDC Steel. Management clarified that this was a one-off transaction and no such trading activity will be undertaken going forward."
The brokerage noted that management has guided for production volumes to rise to around 60 million tonnes in FY27, supported by a higher environmental clearance (EC) limit and a new mine under a joint venture.
"We largely maintain our estimates for FY27/28 and expect volumes and prices to remain elevated, in line with strong demand from steel makers," it said.
At current levels, MOFSL said the stock trades at 6.1 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA and 1.7 times FY28 estimated price-to-book (P/B) value. The brokerage reiterated its 'Buy' rating with an increased target price of Rs 106, based on 7 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA.
Nuvama Institutional Equities also raised its target price on NMDC to Rs 100 from Rs 85 earlier, while retaining a 'Hold' rating.
"We are raising TP to Rs 100 (earlier: Rs 85), valuing the stock at 9x FY28E EPS. At CMP, the stock trades at a PE of 9.1x/8.5x on FY27E/28E EPS; maintain HOLD," Nuvama said.
Meanwhile, JM Financial said NMDC reported Q4 EBITDA of Rs 2,640 crore, broadly in line with its estimate of around Rs 2,730 crore.
According to the brokerage, EBITDA increased 29 per cent year-on-year (YoY), driven by lower other costs per tonne. Revenue rose around 62 per cent YoY to around Rs 11,300 crore, supported by strong volume growth and higher realisations.
"Other sales surged from Rs 610 crore to ~Rs 3,890 crore YoY. Sales volumes stood at ~15.3mn tons (+21 per cent YoY). Consequently, EBITDA/t came in at Rs 1.73k/t, up Rs 114/t YoY," JM Financial said.
The brokerage marginally increased its 12-month target price to Rs 86 from Rs 82 but maintained a 'Reduce' rating.
"At current levels, the stock trades at a premium to its historical average; with a 100mn ton volume target by 2030 requiring significant capex deployment across new deposits and verticals, execution risk remains elevated. Maintain REDUCE," it said.
JM Financial also highlighted the sharp improvement in NMDC Steel's performance. The company reported EBITDA of Rs 805 crore in Q4 FY26, up significantly on a sequential basis, and posted an adjusted profit after tax of Rs 390 crore compared with a loss of Rs 240 crore in the December quarter.
Select brokerages revised their target prices for NMDC Ltd following the state-owned iron ore producer's March quarter (Q4 FY26) earnings.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) said, "NMDC's reported consolidated revenue stood at Rs 11,300 crore, driven by third-party value-added sales of Rs 3,000 crore in Q4 FY26. The company undertook a temporary HR coil trading arrangement to support the working capital requirements of NMDC Steel. Management clarified that this was a one-off transaction and no such trading activity will be undertaken going forward."
The brokerage noted that management has guided for production volumes to rise to around 60 million tonnes in FY27, supported by a higher environmental clearance (EC) limit and a new mine under a joint venture.
"We largely maintain our estimates for FY27/28 and expect volumes and prices to remain elevated, in line with strong demand from steel makers," it said.
At current levels, MOFSL said the stock trades at 6.1 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA and 1.7 times FY28 estimated price-to-book (P/B) value. The brokerage reiterated its 'Buy' rating with an increased target price of Rs 106, based on 7 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA.
Nuvama Institutional Equities also raised its target price on NMDC to Rs 100 from Rs 85 earlier, while retaining a 'Hold' rating.
"We are raising TP to Rs 100 (earlier: Rs 85), valuing the stock at 9x FY28E EPS. At CMP, the stock trades at a PE of 9.1x/8.5x on FY27E/28E EPS; maintain HOLD," Nuvama said.
Meanwhile, JM Financial said NMDC reported Q4 EBITDA of Rs 2,640 crore, broadly in line with its estimate of around Rs 2,730 crore.
According to the brokerage, EBITDA increased 29 per cent year-on-year (YoY), driven by lower other costs per tonne. Revenue rose around 62 per cent YoY to around Rs 11,300 crore, supported by strong volume growth and higher realisations.
"Other sales surged from Rs 610 crore to ~Rs 3,890 crore YoY. Sales volumes stood at ~15.3mn tons (+21 per cent YoY). Consequently, EBITDA/t came in at Rs 1.73k/t, up Rs 114/t YoY," JM Financial said.
The brokerage marginally increased its 12-month target price to Rs 86 from Rs 82 but maintained a 'Reduce' rating.
"At current levels, the stock trades at a premium to its historical average; with a 100mn ton volume target by 2030 requiring significant capex deployment across new deposits and verticals, execution risk remains elevated. Maintain REDUCE," it said.
JM Financial also highlighted the sharp improvement in NMDC Steel's performance. The company reported EBITDA of Rs 805 crore in Q4 FY26, up significantly on a sequential basis, and posted an adjusted profit after tax of Rs 390 crore compared with a loss of Rs 240 crore in the December quarter.