NSDL shares: Motilal Oswal sees all positive priced in; check target, rating & more
NSDL shares: Domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services has initiated coverage on recently National Securities Depository.
- Sep 18, 2025,
- Updated Sep 18, 2025 3:00 PM IST
NSDL shares: Domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) has initiated coverage on recently National Securities Depository (NSDL). However, the brokerage firm is positive on the Indian capital market ecosystem but believes that all positive for the counter as priced in.
NSDL, the first depository in India, is positioned to benefit from ongoing financialisation trends. Demat penetration in India stands at only 15% compared to over 60% in the United States, reflecting the vast potential for expansion across the Indian capital market ecosystem. NSDL captures both the influx of new retail investors and the growing custody value from institutional and corporate issuers, underpinning its resilience across market cycles, said Motilal.
NSDL dominates among institutional, custodian, and large corporate accounts, with revenue per active account reaching around Rs 157 in FY25—about three times higher than its main competitor, Central Depository Services India (CDSL). This institutional focus results in more stable revenue pools, linked to custody value rather than transaction volumes, helping NSDL withstand market volatility, it noted.
Shares of NSDL were listed at the bourses on August 6, 2025, when the company raised a total of Rs 4,010.95 crore via its IPO by selling its shares for Rs 800 apiece. The stock hit Rs 1,300 mark on Thursday, up 62.5% from its IPO price. The stock hit an all time high of Rs 1,425, on August 8.
The company also services the widest base of issuers in India, including over 70% of unlisted corporates mandated to dematerialise, creating a stable and recurring charge structure. Once issuers embed demat systems, migration rates are low, strengthening NSDL's competitive position. As India's unlisted market continues to expand, NSDL is well-placed to capture further growth, the brokerage reported.
Investor engagement initiatives have been stepped up through partnerships with fintech brokers, facilitating digital onboarding and account opening in tier 2 and tier 3 cities. As a result, NSDL's incremental demat market share rose from 10% in August 2024 to 17% in August 2025, although the overall account market share remains at around 20%, indicating considerable room for further expansion. The primary competitor in this space is CDSL, it said.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services stated, "We expect a revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 5%/14%/15% over FY25-28. Given the duopoly nature of the industry and NSDL’s superior pricing power, depositories deserve premium valuations. However, we believe the stock is fairly valued, and all the positives are priced in at current levels. Hence, we initiate coverage on NSDL with a 'neutral' rating and a one-year target price of Rs 1,200." It sees a 8 per cent correction in the stock.
NSDL shares: Domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) has initiated coverage on recently National Securities Depository (NSDL). However, the brokerage firm is positive on the Indian capital market ecosystem but believes that all positive for the counter as priced in.
NSDL, the first depository in India, is positioned to benefit from ongoing financialisation trends. Demat penetration in India stands at only 15% compared to over 60% in the United States, reflecting the vast potential for expansion across the Indian capital market ecosystem. NSDL captures both the influx of new retail investors and the growing custody value from institutional and corporate issuers, underpinning its resilience across market cycles, said Motilal.
NSDL dominates among institutional, custodian, and large corporate accounts, with revenue per active account reaching around Rs 157 in FY25—about three times higher than its main competitor, Central Depository Services India (CDSL). This institutional focus results in more stable revenue pools, linked to custody value rather than transaction volumes, helping NSDL withstand market volatility, it noted.
Shares of NSDL were listed at the bourses on August 6, 2025, when the company raised a total of Rs 4,010.95 crore via its IPO by selling its shares for Rs 800 apiece. The stock hit Rs 1,300 mark on Thursday, up 62.5% from its IPO price. The stock hit an all time high of Rs 1,425, on August 8.
The company also services the widest base of issuers in India, including over 70% of unlisted corporates mandated to dematerialise, creating a stable and recurring charge structure. Once issuers embed demat systems, migration rates are low, strengthening NSDL's competitive position. As India's unlisted market continues to expand, NSDL is well-placed to capture further growth, the brokerage reported.
Investor engagement initiatives have been stepped up through partnerships with fintech brokers, facilitating digital onboarding and account opening in tier 2 and tier 3 cities. As a result, NSDL's incremental demat market share rose from 10% in August 2024 to 17% in August 2025, although the overall account market share remains at around 20%, indicating considerable room for further expansion. The primary competitor in this space is CDSL, it said.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services stated, "We expect a revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 5%/14%/15% over FY25-28. Given the duopoly nature of the industry and NSDL’s superior pricing power, depositories deserve premium valuations. However, we believe the stock is fairly valued, and all the positives are priced in at current levels. Hence, we initiate coverage on NSDL with a 'neutral' rating and a one-year target price of Rs 1,200." It sees a 8 per cent correction in the stock.