NTPC shares: Axis Securities sees 19% upside on strong capex, renewable push
NTPC: The brokerage highlighted that the state-run company's strong capacity addition pipeline and diversified clean energy initiatives are key drivers for long-term growth.
- Aug 19, 2025,
- Updated Aug 19, 2025 5:32 PM IST
Axis Securities has reiterated its 'Buy' rating on NTPC Ltd with a target price of Rs 400 per share, implying a 19.42 per cent upside from Tuesday's closing price of Rs 334.95. The brokerage highlighted that the state-run company's strong capacity addition pipeline and diversified clean energy initiatives are key drivers for long-term growth.
In Q1 FY26, NTPC added 2,716 MW of capacity, taking its total installed base to 82,646 MW. The fresh additions included 1,320 MW of thermal projects, 996 MW of solar, 150 MW of wind and 250 MW of hydro pumped storage. For FY26, the company is targeting 3.6 GW of thermal and 6.5 GW of renewable capacity additions.
As of June 30, 2025, NTPC's under-construction capacity stood at 30,853 MW, comprising 15,580 MW of thermal, 13,268 MW of renewables and 2,005 MW of hydro projects. Over the next five years, NTPC plans to scale its thermal portfolio to 88 GW, while aiming to raise its renewable capacity to 60 GW by 2032 from the current 8 GW.
The company also has ambitious plans in nuclear energy, with a target of 30 GW by 2047 in line with the national goal of 100 GW. It has initiated projects such as the Mahi Banswara atomic power plant in Rajasthan and incorporated a new subsidiary, NTPC Pramanu Urja Nigam, to explore advanced nuclear technologies.
On the energy storage front, NTPC has lined up 21.2 GW of pumped storage projects, with the first 500 MW commissioned at Tehri in July 2025. It is also making progress in green hydrogen, with its 1 TPD plant at Simhadri set to be commissioned in FY26.
The domestic brokerage values NTPC through a sum-of-the-parts approach, factoring in regulated equity, renewable energy subsidiary NGEL, pumped storage optionality and cash. It expects consolidated net profit to rise from Rs 23,422 crore in FY25 to Rs 30,006 crore in FY28, with return ratios remaining steady at 12-13 per cent.
Axis maintained its positive view on NTPC, underscoring the company's Rs 7 lakh crore capex pipeline through 2032, focus on captive coal expansion and consistent earnings visibility. At the same time, it flagged potential risks arising from project execution delays and payment challenges from state discoms.
Axis Securities has reiterated its 'Buy' rating on NTPC Ltd with a target price of Rs 400 per share, implying a 19.42 per cent upside from Tuesday's closing price of Rs 334.95. The brokerage highlighted that the state-run company's strong capacity addition pipeline and diversified clean energy initiatives are key drivers for long-term growth.
In Q1 FY26, NTPC added 2,716 MW of capacity, taking its total installed base to 82,646 MW. The fresh additions included 1,320 MW of thermal projects, 996 MW of solar, 150 MW of wind and 250 MW of hydro pumped storage. For FY26, the company is targeting 3.6 GW of thermal and 6.5 GW of renewable capacity additions.
As of June 30, 2025, NTPC's under-construction capacity stood at 30,853 MW, comprising 15,580 MW of thermal, 13,268 MW of renewables and 2,005 MW of hydro projects. Over the next five years, NTPC plans to scale its thermal portfolio to 88 GW, while aiming to raise its renewable capacity to 60 GW by 2032 from the current 8 GW.
The company also has ambitious plans in nuclear energy, with a target of 30 GW by 2047 in line with the national goal of 100 GW. It has initiated projects such as the Mahi Banswara atomic power plant in Rajasthan and incorporated a new subsidiary, NTPC Pramanu Urja Nigam, to explore advanced nuclear technologies.
On the energy storage front, NTPC has lined up 21.2 GW of pumped storage projects, with the first 500 MW commissioned at Tehri in July 2025. It is also making progress in green hydrogen, with its 1 TPD plant at Simhadri set to be commissioned in FY26.
The domestic brokerage values NTPC through a sum-of-the-parts approach, factoring in regulated equity, renewable energy subsidiary NGEL, pumped storage optionality and cash. It expects consolidated net profit to rise from Rs 23,422 crore in FY25 to Rs 30,006 crore in FY28, with return ratios remaining steady at 12-13 per cent.
Axis maintained its positive view on NTPC, underscoring the company's Rs 7 lakh crore capex pipeline through 2032, focus on captive coal expansion and consistent earnings visibility. At the same time, it flagged potential risks arising from project execution delays and payment challenges from state discoms.