Nykaa shares: MOFSL sees limited upside after sharp rally; check price target
Motilal Oswal Financial Services has initiated coverage on FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) highlighting its position as a leading specialty platform in the BPC segment.
- Dec 23, 2025,
- Updated Dec 23, 2025 2:14 PM IST
Domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) has initiated coverage on FSN E-Commerce Ventures, known as Nykaa, highlighting its position as a leading specialty platform in the beauty and personal care (BPC) segment. Nykaa holds approximately 27% share of India's online BPC market, focusing on authenticity, trust, and guided discovery rather than deep discounting.
Motilal Oswal notes that while generalist e-commerce platforms compete on logistics and discounting, Nykaa differentiates itself through content, influence, and brand trust. Its inventory-led model, direct brand relationships, and omni-channel presence set it apart in a market affected by counterfeits and commoditization.
India's BPC market is at a structural inflection point, with online penetration expected to rise from about 22% in FY25 to 35% by FY30. The premium beauty segment is growing faster than mass-market products, and D2C brands are proliferating. Nykaa is positioned at the convergence of these trends, with growth aligned to premium skincare, cosmetics, fragrances, and discovery-led consumption.
Shares of Nykaa jumped more than a per cent to Rs 256.10 on Monday, commanding a total market capitalization of Rs 73,250 crore. Shares of Nykaa have jumped more than 60 per cent in the last one year, while it has jumped more than 25 per cent in the last six months.
Nykaa is seen as a beneficiary of India's shift from offline to online retail and from unorganised to organised formats, especially in BPC. With its leading online position, the company is well placed to scale up as the category matures.
MOSFL estimates Nykaa's BPC gross merchandise value (GMV) to grow at a CAGR of 26% from FY25 to FY30, and 22% up to FY37. BPC EBITDA is expected to grow at a CAGR of 35% over FY25-30, supported by operating leverage and a rising contribution from owned brands. However, much of this growth is seen as already reflected in current valuations.
Nykaa is valued on a sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) basis, with a 50x EV/EBITDA multiple for the BPC business and a discounted cash flow (DCF) approach for the fashion segment. This results in a per-share value of Rs 255 for BPC and Rs 31 for fashion, leading to a target price of Rs 280 after adjusting for net debt. Given the strong share price performance, Motilal Oswal initiates coverage with a 'Neutral' rating, citing a balanced risk-reward and limited near-term upside.
Domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) has initiated coverage on FSN E-Commerce Ventures, known as Nykaa, highlighting its position as a leading specialty platform in the beauty and personal care (BPC) segment. Nykaa holds approximately 27% share of India's online BPC market, focusing on authenticity, trust, and guided discovery rather than deep discounting.
Motilal Oswal notes that while generalist e-commerce platforms compete on logistics and discounting, Nykaa differentiates itself through content, influence, and brand trust. Its inventory-led model, direct brand relationships, and omni-channel presence set it apart in a market affected by counterfeits and commoditization.
India's BPC market is at a structural inflection point, with online penetration expected to rise from about 22% in FY25 to 35% by FY30. The premium beauty segment is growing faster than mass-market products, and D2C brands are proliferating. Nykaa is positioned at the convergence of these trends, with growth aligned to premium skincare, cosmetics, fragrances, and discovery-led consumption.
Shares of Nykaa jumped more than a per cent to Rs 256.10 on Monday, commanding a total market capitalization of Rs 73,250 crore. Shares of Nykaa have jumped more than 60 per cent in the last one year, while it has jumped more than 25 per cent in the last six months.
Nykaa is seen as a beneficiary of India's shift from offline to online retail and from unorganised to organised formats, especially in BPC. With its leading online position, the company is well placed to scale up as the category matures.
MOSFL estimates Nykaa's BPC gross merchandise value (GMV) to grow at a CAGR of 26% from FY25 to FY30, and 22% up to FY37. BPC EBITDA is expected to grow at a CAGR of 35% over FY25-30, supported by operating leverage and a rising contribution from owned brands. However, much of this growth is seen as already reflected in current valuations.
Nykaa is valued on a sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) basis, with a 50x EV/EBITDA multiple for the BPC business and a discounted cash flow (DCF) approach for the fashion segment. This results in a per-share value of Rs 255 for BPC and Rs 31 for fashion, leading to a target price of Rs 280 after adjusting for net debt. Given the strong share price performance, Motilal Oswal initiates coverage with a 'Neutral' rating, citing a balanced risk-reward and limited near-term upside.