OMC stocks: BPCL, HPCL, IOC fall up to 4% as Brent hits $100; key details
HPCL fell 4.35 per cent to hit a low of Rs 367.50. BPCL declined 3.52 per cent to Rs 313.80. IOC dropped 4.10 per cent to Rs 160.70. The three OMC stocks are down 12-17 per cent in the past one month.
- Mar 12, 2026,
- Updated Mar 12, 2026 10:15 AM IST
Shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) fell up to 4 per cent in Thursday's trade, as Brent crude prices hit $100 a barrel level, raising concerns over mounting under-recoveries, as petrol and diesel prices stayed largely unchanged.
HPCL fell 4.35 per cent to hit a low of Rs 367.50. BPCL declined 3.52 per cent to Rs 313.80. IOC dropped 4.10 per cent to Rs 160.70. The three OMC stocks are down 12-17 per cent in the past one month.
The under-recoveries of OMCs at $100 a barrel crude are estimated at Rs 11.8 per litre for petrol and Rs 14 per litre for diesel, Elara Securities said. If the government does not hike LPG subsidy, an increase of Rs 592 per 14.20 kg cylinder would be needed, leading to a 140 basis points (bps) upside to CPI inflationm it warned.
The price of a domestic cylinder were raised by Rs 60 earlier this week, bringing the cost for non-Ujjwala users to Rs 913, up from the previous Rs 853.
Similarly , if the government decides to hike petrol and diesel prices to offset under-recoveries and not cut excise duty, Elara sees a direct impact of 70 bp on CPI.
Analysts noted that IEA has released 400 million barrels of crude oil into the market but the discharge rate remains capped at 2 million barrels per day (mbd). During the Russian-Ukraine war, the rate of discharge was approximately 1.1mbd.
They noted that three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked on March 11 and the shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remains close to zero. Now report emerged on attacks on two tankers in Iraqi tankers.
Hitesh Jain of YES Securities noted that Iran’s most effective survival strategy is to increase the economic costs of the conflict globally. This, he said, can be achieved by targeting infrastructure and energy assets across the Gulf region.
"One severe escalation scenario involves attacks on desalination plants in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which supply the majority of potable water in the Gulf. Disruptions to these facilities could trigger humanitarian and economic chaos in the region and potentially force the United States to reconsider its military engagement," he said.
At the same time, prolonged conflict could influence capital flows, with Gulf sovereign wealth funds potentially reassessing investment exposure to the United States given the fiscal costs of sustained military involvement, he said.
"In the current market conditions, as Strait of Hormuz remains closed, for the market to rebalance, roughly 20 million barrels of demand destruction may be required – a level we believe could occur if Brent reaches above $130 a barrel," Choice Institutional Equities said.
Shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) fell up to 4 per cent in Thursday's trade, as Brent crude prices hit $100 a barrel level, raising concerns over mounting under-recoveries, as petrol and diesel prices stayed largely unchanged.
HPCL fell 4.35 per cent to hit a low of Rs 367.50. BPCL declined 3.52 per cent to Rs 313.80. IOC dropped 4.10 per cent to Rs 160.70. The three OMC stocks are down 12-17 per cent in the past one month.
The under-recoveries of OMCs at $100 a barrel crude are estimated at Rs 11.8 per litre for petrol and Rs 14 per litre for diesel, Elara Securities said. If the government does not hike LPG subsidy, an increase of Rs 592 per 14.20 kg cylinder would be needed, leading to a 140 basis points (bps) upside to CPI inflationm it warned.
The price of a domestic cylinder were raised by Rs 60 earlier this week, bringing the cost for non-Ujjwala users to Rs 913, up from the previous Rs 853.
Similarly , if the government decides to hike petrol and diesel prices to offset under-recoveries and not cut excise duty, Elara sees a direct impact of 70 bp on CPI.
Analysts noted that IEA has released 400 million barrels of crude oil into the market but the discharge rate remains capped at 2 million barrels per day (mbd). During the Russian-Ukraine war, the rate of discharge was approximately 1.1mbd.
They noted that three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked on March 11 and the shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remains close to zero. Now report emerged on attacks on two tankers in Iraqi tankers.
Hitesh Jain of YES Securities noted that Iran’s most effective survival strategy is to increase the economic costs of the conflict globally. This, he said, can be achieved by targeting infrastructure and energy assets across the Gulf region.
"One severe escalation scenario involves attacks on desalination plants in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which supply the majority of potable water in the Gulf. Disruptions to these facilities could trigger humanitarian and economic chaos in the region and potentially force the United States to reconsider its military engagement," he said.
At the same time, prolonged conflict could influence capital flows, with Gulf sovereign wealth funds potentially reassessing investment exposure to the United States given the fiscal costs of sustained military involvement, he said.
"In the current market conditions, as Strait of Hormuz remains closed, for the market to rebalance, roughly 20 million barrels of demand destruction may be required – a level we believe could occur if Brent reaches above $130 a barrel," Choice Institutional Equities said.