Paytm shares: 53% upside! JM Financial says PIDF reaction ‘premature’; check target
The brokerage pointed out that while there has been no official communication from RBI regarding an extension, the market seems to have already priced in a permanent termination of the scheme.
- Jan 27, 2026,
- Updated Jan 27, 2026 12:07 PM IST
One 97 Communications (Paytm) shares have witnessed a downtrend recently, facing a double-digit decline over the last month amid growing buzz about the Payment Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF). However, brokerage firm JM Financial believes the anxiety might be overblown, maintaining a target price that suggests the stock could surge 53% from current levels.
At last check on Tuesday, shares of Paytm were trading down 0.51% at Rs 1,134.95 on the BSE, compared to the previous close of Rs 1,140.75. The stock has been under pressure, declining more than 13% over the past month.
The recent dip in Paytm’s stock price, including a nearly 9.5% single-day correction, was triggered by concerns regarding the PIDF.
A draft prospectus filed by a private competitor highlighted that this RBI-backed incentive scheme, which subsidises digital payment tools in smaller towns, had not been renewed after its December 2025 deadline, JM Financial said.
JM Financial termed the reaction ‘premature’ and likely exaggerated due to the broader risk-off sentiment.
The brokerage pointed out that while there has been no official communication from RBI regarding an extension, the market seems to have already priced in a permanent termination of the scheme.
JM Financial forecasts that the hit to EBITDA would be diluted, dropping from a potential 17% impact to 11% in FY27. While the brokerage forecasts the company to deliver an EBITDA of Rs 25.9 billion in FY28.
"CMP implies ~23x EV/FY28E EBITDA multiple, quite attractive for a business growing at ~25% revenue CAGR and likely to triple EBITDA over the next two years," it said.
JM Financial has reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a March 2027 target price of Rs 1,740, valuing the company at 40x its estimated FY28 EBITDA. This implies a massive potential upside of 53% from Tuesday’s levels.
One 97 Communications (Paytm) shares have witnessed a downtrend recently, facing a double-digit decline over the last month amid growing buzz about the Payment Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF). However, brokerage firm JM Financial believes the anxiety might be overblown, maintaining a target price that suggests the stock could surge 53% from current levels.
At last check on Tuesday, shares of Paytm were trading down 0.51% at Rs 1,134.95 on the BSE, compared to the previous close of Rs 1,140.75. The stock has been under pressure, declining more than 13% over the past month.
The recent dip in Paytm’s stock price, including a nearly 9.5% single-day correction, was triggered by concerns regarding the PIDF.
A draft prospectus filed by a private competitor highlighted that this RBI-backed incentive scheme, which subsidises digital payment tools in smaller towns, had not been renewed after its December 2025 deadline, JM Financial said.
JM Financial termed the reaction ‘premature’ and likely exaggerated due to the broader risk-off sentiment.
The brokerage pointed out that while there has been no official communication from RBI regarding an extension, the market seems to have already priced in a permanent termination of the scheme.
JM Financial forecasts that the hit to EBITDA would be diluted, dropping from a potential 17% impact to 11% in FY27. While the brokerage forecasts the company to deliver an EBITDA of Rs 25.9 billion in FY28.
"CMP implies ~23x EV/FY28E EBITDA multiple, quite attractive for a business growing at ~25% revenue CAGR and likely to triple EBITDA over the next two years," it said.
JM Financial has reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a March 2027 target price of Rs 1,740, valuing the company at 40x its estimated FY28 EBITDA. This implies a massive potential upside of 53% from Tuesday’s levels.