Paytm shares at Rs 2,320! What Goldman Sachs' blue-sky scenario factors in
Paytm trades at 52 times FY27E EV/Ebitda and 64 times EPS, at the mid-point of our India internet coverage. On a growth adjusted basis, Paytm trades at the lower end of Goldman's coverage.
- Nov 28, 2025,
- Updated Nov 28, 2025 3:26 PM IST
Goldman Sachs finds risk-reward favourable for One 97 Communications Ltd (Paytm), as it believes regulatory environment is incrementally getting better. It was a key drag on the Paytm stock price in the past, the foreign brokerage said.
This, Goldman Sachs said, is translating into early signs of recovery in Paytm’s payments market share, better earnings visibility, and relaunch of products (postpaid and potentially wallets), which should help Paytm sustain 20 per cent revenue growth for the foreseeable future. The brokerage upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral'.
"While the stock is up 26 per cent YTD (vs BSE Sensex 10 per cent), we see room for more upside; our revised 12m target price of Rs 1,570 (was vs Rs705) implies 21 per cent upside (vs 4 per cent for India TMT coverage). More importantly, we see a skewed risk-reward for Paytm, with 45 per cent/79 per cent upside in a bull case/blue-sky scenario, vs 28% downside in a bear case," Goldman Sachs said.
Paytm trades at 52 times FY27E EV/Ebitda and 64 times EPS, at the mid-point of our India internet coverage. On a growth adjusted basis, Paytm trades at the lower end of Goldman's coverage.
"Additionally, there could be upside risks and optionalities over the next 1-2 years from any positive regulatory interventions around payments charges or further recovery in market share, which we partly reflect in the form of higher multiples in our base case for Paytm, and fully reflect in a bull-case/blue-sky scenario," Goldman Sachs said.
Goldman Sachs set a base case 12-month price target of Rs 1,570 against its previous target of Rs 705, suggesting a 21 per cent potential upside. It sees 45 per cent upside (Rs1,870 per share implied value), in a bull case; and 79 per cent upside in a blue-sky scenario with a target of Rs 2,320.
"In a bear-case, where we assume lower payments market share due to increase in competition and slower than expected recovery in MTUs, and prolonged weakness in consumer lending and marketing services segments, we see 28 per cent downside from current levels (Rs 930 per share implied value)," it said.
Goldman Sachs said Paytm’s cost control has been a big positive surprise, and given its expectation of rising share of high-margin financial services segment, it forecast Ebitda margins to more than double over the next 3-4 years for Paytm. Its blue-sky scenario included potential MDR on UPI. In a blue sky scenario, it expects Paytm reaching its earlier UPI market share peak in two years, vs only a modest recovery in its base case.
Goldman Sachs finds risk-reward favourable for One 97 Communications Ltd (Paytm), as it believes regulatory environment is incrementally getting better. It was a key drag on the Paytm stock price in the past, the foreign brokerage said.
This, Goldman Sachs said, is translating into early signs of recovery in Paytm’s payments market share, better earnings visibility, and relaunch of products (postpaid and potentially wallets), which should help Paytm sustain 20 per cent revenue growth for the foreseeable future. The brokerage upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral'.
"While the stock is up 26 per cent YTD (vs BSE Sensex 10 per cent), we see room for more upside; our revised 12m target price of Rs 1,570 (was vs Rs705) implies 21 per cent upside (vs 4 per cent for India TMT coverage). More importantly, we see a skewed risk-reward for Paytm, with 45 per cent/79 per cent upside in a bull case/blue-sky scenario, vs 28% downside in a bear case," Goldman Sachs said.
Paytm trades at 52 times FY27E EV/Ebitda and 64 times EPS, at the mid-point of our India internet coverage. On a growth adjusted basis, Paytm trades at the lower end of Goldman's coverage.
"Additionally, there could be upside risks and optionalities over the next 1-2 years from any positive regulatory interventions around payments charges or further recovery in market share, which we partly reflect in the form of higher multiples in our base case for Paytm, and fully reflect in a bull-case/blue-sky scenario," Goldman Sachs said.
Goldman Sachs set a base case 12-month price target of Rs 1,570 against its previous target of Rs 705, suggesting a 21 per cent potential upside. It sees 45 per cent upside (Rs1,870 per share implied value), in a bull case; and 79 per cent upside in a blue-sky scenario with a target of Rs 2,320.
"In a bear-case, where we assume lower payments market share due to increase in competition and slower than expected recovery in MTUs, and prolonged weakness in consumer lending and marketing services segments, we see 28 per cent downside from current levels (Rs 930 per share implied value)," it said.
Goldman Sachs said Paytm’s cost control has been a big positive surprise, and given its expectation of rising share of high-margin financial services segment, it forecast Ebitda margins to more than double over the next 3-4 years for Paytm. Its blue-sky scenario included potential MDR on UPI. In a blue sky scenario, it expects Paytm reaching its earlier UPI market share peak in two years, vs only a modest recovery in its base case.