Power Grid shares drop 3% amid revision in FY26 capex guidance; target prices for PSU
Power Grid share price: Antique Stock Broking said PGCIL’s business update reinforced the multi-year transmission capex upcycle, but noted that near-term earnings translation kept its rating at ‘Hold’.
- Mar 24, 2026,
- Updated Mar 24, 2026 11:03 AM IST
Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (PGCIL) saw its shares falling 3 per cent in Tuesday's trade after the Maharatna PSU hosted a business update webinar where the company revised its FY26 capex guidance to Rs 35,000 crore from Rs 32,000 crore, signalling strong operational delivery. Brokerages largely remained positive on the PSU stock and also upped their target prices. They still, however, believe near-term earnings translation and moderating dividends may cap upside.
Power Grid has historically faced execution headwinds related to Right-of-Way (RoW) acquisitions, availability of skilled manpower, and supply-side constraints in transformers and reactors, all of which are now largely being addressed, analysts said.
Power Grid target raised Antique Stock Broking said PGCIL’s business update reinforced the multi-year transmission capex upcycle, but noted that near-term earnings translation kept its rating at ‘Hold’.
"Three structural execution bottlenecks-RoW, skilled manpower, transformer supply have seen tangible resolution, underpinning management's confidence. We raise our target price to Rs 326 (from Rs 294), now valuing PGCIL at 9x FY28E EV/Ebitda (from 8.5 times) to reflect improved execution credibility and improvement in long-term pipeline visibility," Antique said.
Elara Securities said PGCIL remains a direct beneficiary of the sustained investment upcycle in the power sector. Execution momentum has strengthened, with management upgrading capex target.
"We expect the company to secure a dominant share of upcoming TBCB projects. Accordingly, we retain our Buy rating and raise our target price to Rs 360 from Rs 339 after factoring in Rs 15 lakh crore transmission opportunity, where Power Grid could capture 50 per cent market share," it said.
Elara said the opportunity pipeline remains healthy, with the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) estimate of Rs 7.9 lakh crore transmission investment until FY36. This is further bolstered by Rs 4 lakh crore from Brahmaputra basin hydro evacuation and Rs 3 lakh crore from international high-voltage direct current (HVDC) interconnections, aggregating to Rs 15 lakh crore opportunity.
Power Grid dividend MOFSL said Power Grid recorded an average dividend payout ratio of 68.3 per cent over FY22-24, which moderated to 62.9 per cent in FY25.
"We are building in a dividend per share of Rs 9.6/Rs 10/Rs 11 (implying payout ratios of 53 per cent/52 per cent/54 per cent) for FY26/27/28. However, downside risks persist, with dividends potentially remaining flat or witnessing a modest moderation," MOFSL said.
Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (PGCIL) saw its shares falling 3 per cent in Tuesday's trade after the Maharatna PSU hosted a business update webinar where the company revised its FY26 capex guidance to Rs 35,000 crore from Rs 32,000 crore, signalling strong operational delivery. Brokerages largely remained positive on the PSU stock and also upped their target prices. They still, however, believe near-term earnings translation and moderating dividends may cap upside.
Power Grid has historically faced execution headwinds related to Right-of-Way (RoW) acquisitions, availability of skilled manpower, and supply-side constraints in transformers and reactors, all of which are now largely being addressed, analysts said.
Power Grid target raised Antique Stock Broking said PGCIL’s business update reinforced the multi-year transmission capex upcycle, but noted that near-term earnings translation kept its rating at ‘Hold’.
"Three structural execution bottlenecks-RoW, skilled manpower, transformer supply have seen tangible resolution, underpinning management's confidence. We raise our target price to Rs 326 (from Rs 294), now valuing PGCIL at 9x FY28E EV/Ebitda (from 8.5 times) to reflect improved execution credibility and improvement in long-term pipeline visibility," Antique said.
Elara Securities said PGCIL remains a direct beneficiary of the sustained investment upcycle in the power sector. Execution momentum has strengthened, with management upgrading capex target.
"We expect the company to secure a dominant share of upcoming TBCB projects. Accordingly, we retain our Buy rating and raise our target price to Rs 360 from Rs 339 after factoring in Rs 15 lakh crore transmission opportunity, where Power Grid could capture 50 per cent market share," it said.
Elara said the opportunity pipeline remains healthy, with the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) estimate of Rs 7.9 lakh crore transmission investment until FY36. This is further bolstered by Rs 4 lakh crore from Brahmaputra basin hydro evacuation and Rs 3 lakh crore from international high-voltage direct current (HVDC) interconnections, aggregating to Rs 15 lakh crore opportunity.
Power Grid dividend MOFSL said Power Grid recorded an average dividend payout ratio of 68.3 per cent over FY22-24, which moderated to 62.9 per cent in FY25.
"We are building in a dividend per share of Rs 9.6/Rs 10/Rs 11 (implying payout ratios of 53 per cent/52 per cent/54 per cent) for FY26/27/28. However, downside risks persist, with dividends potentially remaining flat or witnessing a modest moderation," MOFSL said.