PSU stock: FPIs nearly double stake in Q1, but shares slip 14% in Q2. Time to buy?
Antique Stock Broking, which met the senior management of MOIL to understand their strategic priorities, said MOIL demonstrated a strong operational momentum from April and July with ore production.
- Aug 28, 2025,
- Updated Aug 28, 2025 11:18 AM IST
PSU stock: Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) nearly doubled their stake in Nagpur-based miniratna state-owned manganese-ore mining company in the June quarter, but the scrip has entered correction mode in the September quarter, falling 14 per cent since June 30. Analysts noted the PSU missed Q1 earnings estimates despite record production. Sales missed analyst estimates by 20 per cent, not due to lower average selling price (ASP) of ore, but to reduced sales volume from its mining vertical.
This stock is MOIL Ltd. FPI holding in the stock jumped to 6.2 per cent in the June quarter compared with 3.3 per cent in the March quarter and 3.12 per cent in the December quarter. This was the highest FPI holding for the PSU since June 2023. MF holding on this counter fell to 1.8 per cent, 2.7 per cent in March quarter and 3 per cent in the December quarter.
Antique Stock Broking, which met the senior management of MOIL to understand their strategic priorities, said MOIL demonstrated a strong operational momentum from April and July with ore production of 647 KT, up 7.8 per cent YoY. The company is aggressively undertaking exploration activities and undertook exploratory core drilling of 43,215 meters during the same period, up 11.4 per cent YoY.
"Environmental clearance (EC) capacity stands at 2.7 mtpa currently, with the management targeting to raise it to 5 mtpa by FY30. Successive price hikes to ferro grade ore in July and August along with firm international ore prices would support QoQ recovery in realization and demand should recover post monsoon," it said.
The brokerage said it likes MOIL’s volume growth prospects and maintained 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 452 at a target multiple of 6 times 1HFY28E EV/Ebitda.
Anand Rathi in a recent note said it believes the miss in Q1 sales volume was due to the early monsoon expects volumes to pick up in H2FY26. Considering MOIL’s dominance in domestic manganese ore, it expect the PSU to continue its growth trajectory with over 20 per cent revenue CAGR and over 30 per cent Ebitda CAGR over FY25-28.
"We roll forward our estimates to capture FY28e and assign a 6.5x EV/Ebitda multiple to derive a target of Rs 425," it said on July 30.
Systematix Research on August 1 said it is positive on MOIL based on a favorable demand outlook and a demonstrated focus on increasing exploration activity. MOIL achieved record Q1 production and Systematix estimated it to report 2.1 mt production and 1.9 mt sales in FY26 on an existing capacity of 2.48 mt.
"We maintain Buy on the stock based on 8.7x FY27 EV/Ebitda and a target price of Rs 404 per share," it said. Kotak Securities has a target of Rs 367 on the stock.
PSU stock: Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) nearly doubled their stake in Nagpur-based miniratna state-owned manganese-ore mining company in the June quarter, but the scrip has entered correction mode in the September quarter, falling 14 per cent since June 30. Analysts noted the PSU missed Q1 earnings estimates despite record production. Sales missed analyst estimates by 20 per cent, not due to lower average selling price (ASP) of ore, but to reduced sales volume from its mining vertical.
This stock is MOIL Ltd. FPI holding in the stock jumped to 6.2 per cent in the June quarter compared with 3.3 per cent in the March quarter and 3.12 per cent in the December quarter. This was the highest FPI holding for the PSU since June 2023. MF holding on this counter fell to 1.8 per cent, 2.7 per cent in March quarter and 3 per cent in the December quarter.
Antique Stock Broking, which met the senior management of MOIL to understand their strategic priorities, said MOIL demonstrated a strong operational momentum from April and July with ore production of 647 KT, up 7.8 per cent YoY. The company is aggressively undertaking exploration activities and undertook exploratory core drilling of 43,215 meters during the same period, up 11.4 per cent YoY.
"Environmental clearance (EC) capacity stands at 2.7 mtpa currently, with the management targeting to raise it to 5 mtpa by FY30. Successive price hikes to ferro grade ore in July and August along with firm international ore prices would support QoQ recovery in realization and demand should recover post monsoon," it said.
The brokerage said it likes MOIL’s volume growth prospects and maintained 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 452 at a target multiple of 6 times 1HFY28E EV/Ebitda.
Anand Rathi in a recent note said it believes the miss in Q1 sales volume was due to the early monsoon expects volumes to pick up in H2FY26. Considering MOIL’s dominance in domestic manganese ore, it expect the PSU to continue its growth trajectory with over 20 per cent revenue CAGR and over 30 per cent Ebitda CAGR over FY25-28.
"We roll forward our estimates to capture FY28e and assign a 6.5x EV/Ebitda multiple to derive a target of Rs 425," it said on July 30.
Systematix Research on August 1 said it is positive on MOIL based on a favorable demand outlook and a demonstrated focus on increasing exploration activity. MOIL achieved record Q1 production and Systematix estimated it to report 2.1 mt production and 1.9 mt sales in FY26 on an existing capacity of 2.48 mt.
"We maintain Buy on the stock based on 8.7x FY27 EV/Ebitda and a target price of Rs 404 per share," it said. Kotak Securities has a target of Rs 367 on the stock.