RIL Q1 results 2026: Jio may add 70-95 lakh subscribers; Retail to log healthy growth
Reliance Q1 results preview: Emkay Global expects RIL to report 2.8 per cent YoY drop in net profit at Rs 17,567 crore on 38.9 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 3,38,420 crore. Ebitda is seen rising 4.9 per cent YoY to Rs 45,013 crore.
- Jul 16, 2026,
- Updated Jul 16, 2026 11:42 AM IST
The Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is likely to deliver flattish profit growth for the June quarter, as strength across oil-to-chemical segment (O2C), Retail and Jio are seen partly offset by weaker upstream.
Emkay Global expects RIL to report 2.8 per cent YoY drop in net profit at Rs 17,567 crore on 38.9 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 3,38,420 crore. Ebitda is seen rising 4.9 per cent YoY to Rs 45,013 crore while Ebitda margin is pegged at 13.3 per cent, down 431 basis points (bps) YoY or 171 bps QoQ.
Emkay expects O2C Ebitda to rise 2 per cent QoQ to Rs 14,800 crore. Upstream Ebitda is seen falling 5 per cent QoQ to Rs 3,960 crore; Retail Ebitda is seen rising 1 per cent QoQ to Rs 6,990 crore. Jio's average revenue per user (ARPU) is seen rising 1 per cent QoQ, with subscribers addition likely at 95 lakh in Q1FY27.
"Reliance Industries' Q1 Ebitda is estimated to increase 8.9 per cent QoQ to Rs 48,100 crore (up 12 per cent YoY), supported by growth across all major segments except upstream. O2C EBITDA is expected to rise 25 per cent QoQ, driven by stronger GRMs and improved petrochemical spreads. Jio Ebitda is likely to increase 2.4 per cent QoQ, supported by subscriber additions of 70 lakh and a marginal improvement in ARPU to Rs 215 (vs Rs 214 in 4QFY26)," ICICI Securities said.
This brokerge expects retail Ebitda to grow at 7 per cent YoY to Rs 6,830 crore, with Upstream the only weak segment, with Ebitda seen declining due to lower KG-D6 gas production volumes.
Elara, which sees RIL's Q1 profit rising 2.4 per cent to Rs 18,512 crore, said RIL consolidated Ebitda may grow 8 per cent YoY, led by an Ebitda growth of 12 per cent in digital services (telecom) and 10 per cent in retail, while oil -to-chemicals Ebitda is likely to be flat YoY, and E&P Ebitda likely to drop 21 per cent. This brokerage sees RIL's Q1 gross refning margin (GRM) at $23 per barrel vs an estimated $12 per barrel in Q1FY26.
Kotak Institutional Equities, meanwhile, expects adjusted net income at Rs 19,004 crore. It said the O2C segment will likely benefits from strong SEZ refinery earnings, US ethane based petchem, and weak rupee. It sees a relatively muted retail business with 12 per cent YoY revenue growth, and weak oil & gas business on declining production.
The Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is likely to deliver flattish profit growth for the June quarter, as strength across oil-to-chemical segment (O2C), Retail and Jio are seen partly offset by weaker upstream.
Emkay Global expects RIL to report 2.8 per cent YoY drop in net profit at Rs 17,567 crore on 38.9 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 3,38,420 crore. Ebitda is seen rising 4.9 per cent YoY to Rs 45,013 crore while Ebitda margin is pegged at 13.3 per cent, down 431 basis points (bps) YoY or 171 bps QoQ.
Emkay expects O2C Ebitda to rise 2 per cent QoQ to Rs 14,800 crore. Upstream Ebitda is seen falling 5 per cent QoQ to Rs 3,960 crore; Retail Ebitda is seen rising 1 per cent QoQ to Rs 6,990 crore. Jio's average revenue per user (ARPU) is seen rising 1 per cent QoQ, with subscribers addition likely at 95 lakh in Q1FY27.
"Reliance Industries' Q1 Ebitda is estimated to increase 8.9 per cent QoQ to Rs 48,100 crore (up 12 per cent YoY), supported by growth across all major segments except upstream. O2C EBITDA is expected to rise 25 per cent QoQ, driven by stronger GRMs and improved petrochemical spreads. Jio Ebitda is likely to increase 2.4 per cent QoQ, supported by subscriber additions of 70 lakh and a marginal improvement in ARPU to Rs 215 (vs Rs 214 in 4QFY26)," ICICI Securities said.
This brokerge expects retail Ebitda to grow at 7 per cent YoY to Rs 6,830 crore, with Upstream the only weak segment, with Ebitda seen declining due to lower KG-D6 gas production volumes.
Elara, which sees RIL's Q1 profit rising 2.4 per cent to Rs 18,512 crore, said RIL consolidated Ebitda may grow 8 per cent YoY, led by an Ebitda growth of 12 per cent in digital services (telecom) and 10 per cent in retail, while oil -to-chemicals Ebitda is likely to be flat YoY, and E&P Ebitda likely to drop 21 per cent. This brokerage sees RIL's Q1 gross refning margin (GRM) at $23 per barrel vs an estimated $12 per barrel in Q1FY26.
Kotak Institutional Equities, meanwhile, expects adjusted net income at Rs 19,004 crore. It said the O2C segment will likely benefits from strong SEZ refinery earnings, US ethane based petchem, and weak rupee. It sees a relatively muted retail business with 12 per cent YoY revenue growth, and weak oil & gas business on declining production.