RIL Q1 results preview: RJio, Retail & O2C to drive 25-28% jump in Q1 net profit 

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is likely to report 25-28 per cent year-on-year (YoY) jump in net profit for the June quarter on a muted growth in sales. The strong growth would be led strong growth in retail, telecom and oil-to-chemicals (O2C) divisions. ICICI Securities said RIL is likely to see a sharp 18 per cent increase in its retail segment’s earnings YoY, while it sees RJio to deliver 17 per cent YoY rise in Ebitda. 

"The O2C segment may improve 17.7 per cent YoY with an estimated $0.4/bbl QoQ increase in GRMs with petchem to see some improvement, partly offset by lower throughput due to refinery shutdown. Upstream is likely to show softness YoY as slightly lower production and higher government share of profit petroleum dent margins," it said. 

RIL Q1 net profit, revenue estimates

Overall, the brokerage sees profit for RIL rising 25 per cent YoY to Rs 18,870 crore in Q1 compared with Rs 15,140 crore in the year-ago quarter. Revenue is seen rising 6 per cent YoY to Rs 2,46,150 crore from Rs 2,31,780 crore YoY.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects RIL's consolidated Ebitda to rise 15.4 per cent YoY, with 19-20 per cent YoY Ebitda increase for O2C, digital and retail segments, partly offset by oil & gas (down 7.5 per cent YoY). 

"Despite the refinery shutdown in 1Q, O2C Ebitda will rise 19 per cent YoY on low base, on better margins. With tail benefits of July 2024 tariff hike and better transmission to margins, we expect RJio’s Ebitda to rise 4.2 per cent QoQ (18.6 per cent YoY). We assume blended ARPU of Rs 209.50. We forecast retail Ebitda to grow 21 per cent YoY on a low base," Kotak said.

This brokerage sees RIL's profit rising 28.1 per cent YoY to Rs 19,517 crore. 

RIL Q1: Higher subscribers, ARPU likely

Nuvama sees net profit at Rs 19,443 crore. This brokerage sees revenue falling 4.4 per cent YoY to Rs 2,21,482 crore. This brokerage sees RIL reporting a 16 per cent YoY increase in consolidated Ebitda driven better strong contribution from the O2C, Digital and Retail Ebitda, partially offset by weakness in O&G segment. 

"We expect O2C Ebitda to rise 19 per cent YoY on improved product cracks and petchem spreads. Benchmark Singapore GRMs rose 62 per cent YoY on strong global product cracks. JIO's Ebitda is likely to surge 19 per cent YoY and 3 per cent QoQ on higher ARPU post tariff hike and rise in subscribers. Retail Ebitda is expected to report healthy growth of 19 per cent YoY/flat QoQ on better revenue per sq ft and robust margins," it said. 

Kotak sees RIL’s O&G Ebitda falling 10 per cent YoY on 9 per cent YoY decline in production from KG-D6 block despite 2 per cent YoY increase in deepwater gas prices.