Rs 2,000 crore daily loss! OMCs take Rs 20 per litre hit on petrol, Rs 45 on diesel
Oil prices: Systematix said elevated tanker freight rates and insurance premiums for vessels transiting high-risk zones have raised the cost of procurement significantly.
- Mar 13, 2026,
- Updated Mar 13, 2026 5:15 PM IST
Systematix Institutional Equities on Friday said oil marketing companies (OMCs) namely Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) are making marketing losses on petrol and diesel to the tune of Rs 20 per litre and Rs 45 per litre, respectively. It estimated a total loss of Rs 2,000 crore daily on fuel prices, including Rs 1,650 crore on diesel and Rs 350 crore on petrol.
Brokerages such as Elara Securities earlier said they were assuming excise duty cuts, which may offset OMCs' under-recoveries on petrol, diesel and subsidies for liquified petroleum gas ( LPG).
Systematix said elevated tanker freight rates and insurance premiums for vessels transiting high-risk zones have raised the cost of procurement significantly. While the US has issued a 30-day waiver for India to accept Russian oil already at sea so as to stabilise global supply during the Iran conflict, Systematix noted that these barrels were offered at premiums of $2–$8 per barrel to London Dated Brent, a sharp reversal from earlier months when Russian crude traded at discounts to global benchmarks.
"At current prices, marketing losses on petrol/diesel rose to Rs20/45 per litre, leading to the industry’s daily loss of Rs20 bn (Rs 16.5 bn from diesel and Rs 3.5 bn from petrol)," Systematix said.
Diesel FOB, suggesting base purchasing cost from a foreign supplier, stood $149.32 for March. International price for petrol stood at $112.27, as per Petroleum planning & Analysis Cell.
Systematix noted that spot LNG price have moved up over 50 per cent within a month on the back of stoppage of supply from the one of the largest producing country Qatar. This resulted in nearly 25 per cent cut in India’s gas supply which would impact gas utility companies negatively. While the near term volatility would impact the stock valuations, Systematix has Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), Petronet PLNG, Deep Industries Ltd, and Gulf Oil as its preferred picks for the long term.
"While upstream companies benefit from stronger realizations, risk of implementation of windfall tax looms overhead. GRMs have seen a sharp uptick to over $20/bbl in recent days as petrol and diesel cracks hovering near $40/bbl and $80/bbl," it said.
The brokerage suggested a target of Rs 1,700 on RIL, Rs 342 on GAIL, Rs 226 on Indraprastha Gas, Rs 1,374 on Mahanagar Gas, Rs 1,660 on Gilf Oil Lubricants India and Rs 693 on Deep Industries. Systematix has 'Hold' on GAIL (India) Ltd and Gujarat Gas with targets of Rs 176 and 447, respectively.
Systematix Institutional Equities on Friday said oil marketing companies (OMCs) namely Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) are making marketing losses on petrol and diesel to the tune of Rs 20 per litre and Rs 45 per litre, respectively. It estimated a total loss of Rs 2,000 crore daily on fuel prices, including Rs 1,650 crore on diesel and Rs 350 crore on petrol.
Brokerages such as Elara Securities earlier said they were assuming excise duty cuts, which may offset OMCs' under-recoveries on petrol, diesel and subsidies for liquified petroleum gas ( LPG).
Systematix said elevated tanker freight rates and insurance premiums for vessels transiting high-risk zones have raised the cost of procurement significantly. While the US has issued a 30-day waiver for India to accept Russian oil already at sea so as to stabilise global supply during the Iran conflict, Systematix noted that these barrels were offered at premiums of $2–$8 per barrel to London Dated Brent, a sharp reversal from earlier months when Russian crude traded at discounts to global benchmarks.
"At current prices, marketing losses on petrol/diesel rose to Rs20/45 per litre, leading to the industry’s daily loss of Rs20 bn (Rs 16.5 bn from diesel and Rs 3.5 bn from petrol)," Systematix said.
Diesel FOB, suggesting base purchasing cost from a foreign supplier, stood $149.32 for March. International price for petrol stood at $112.27, as per Petroleum planning & Analysis Cell.
Systematix noted that spot LNG price have moved up over 50 per cent within a month on the back of stoppage of supply from the one of the largest producing country Qatar. This resulted in nearly 25 per cent cut in India’s gas supply which would impact gas utility companies negatively. While the near term volatility would impact the stock valuations, Systematix has Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), Petronet PLNG, Deep Industries Ltd, and Gulf Oil as its preferred picks for the long term.
"While upstream companies benefit from stronger realizations, risk of implementation of windfall tax looms overhead. GRMs have seen a sharp uptick to over $20/bbl in recent days as petrol and diesel cracks hovering near $40/bbl and $80/bbl," it said.
The brokerage suggested a target of Rs 1,700 on RIL, Rs 342 on GAIL, Rs 226 on Indraprastha Gas, Rs 1,374 on Mahanagar Gas, Rs 1,660 on Gilf Oil Lubricants India and Rs 693 on Deep Industries. Systematix has 'Hold' on GAIL (India) Ltd and Gujarat Gas with targets of Rs 176 and 447, respectively.