Rupee at 90 probably not bothering; 25-bp rate cut possible: Helios Capital CEO
The Helios Capital CEO noted the rupee was steady last year when all the other currencies were falling against the dollar.
- Dec 3, 2025,
- Updated Dec 4, 2025 2:52 PM IST
Helios Capital CEO Dinshaw Irani on Wednesday said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) probably did not expect rupee to fall to 90 a dollar mark. But he believes it is unlikely to sway the central bank’s policy decision on Friday, December 5.
In an exclusive interview to Business Today, Irani noted the rupee was steady last year when all the other currencies were falling against the dollar. The fiscal and monetary tightening helped the rupee to a great extent against the dollar, he noted. “I think that those excesses are coming back to hurt us this time around,” he said.
Irani noted that the recent trade numbers were not exciting. The industrial production too failed to inspire. The two data probably played a bit on the sentiment, he said.
“And obviously, the overhang, the big overhang that is the trade deal. I do not know when that is going to happen, but definitely not before Mr. Putin steps back, back to Russia. So there is like a week's gap now left before something can be heard on that front,” Irani said.
On the upcoming RBI policy outcome on Friday, Irani said the MPC members would be looking at the domestic economic data. He said the RBI members have got enough leeway and there can be enough reasons for them to decide.
Rupee is not the only factor that they would be looking at, he said.
“And having said that, I think if you had looked at the REEL , the REEL was already pointing to these kind of levels. In fact, even today, the REEL is much higher. The real effective exchange rate, which we were following till not so long back, is still much higher than what it is,” Irani said.
Irani said the rupee fall probably is not bothering the RBI because on the fiscal front.
“I don't see the, that being the sole reason for RBI not to cut interest rates. As I said that on the demand front there, they want demand to be pushed and there is enough liquidity in the system for them to do that. So maybe I won't be too surprised if they undertake a 25 basis points cut,” he said.
Helios Capital CEO Dinshaw Irani on Wednesday said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) probably did not expect rupee to fall to 90 a dollar mark. But he believes it is unlikely to sway the central bank’s policy decision on Friday, December 5.
In an exclusive interview to Business Today, Irani noted the rupee was steady last year when all the other currencies were falling against the dollar. The fiscal and monetary tightening helped the rupee to a great extent against the dollar, he noted. “I think that those excesses are coming back to hurt us this time around,” he said.
Irani noted that the recent trade numbers were not exciting. The industrial production too failed to inspire. The two data probably played a bit on the sentiment, he said.
“And obviously, the overhang, the big overhang that is the trade deal. I do not know when that is going to happen, but definitely not before Mr. Putin steps back, back to Russia. So there is like a week's gap now left before something can be heard on that front,” Irani said.
On the upcoming RBI policy outcome on Friday, Irani said the MPC members would be looking at the domestic economic data. He said the RBI members have got enough leeway and there can be enough reasons for them to decide.
Rupee is not the only factor that they would be looking at, he said.
“And having said that, I think if you had looked at the REEL , the REEL was already pointing to these kind of levels. In fact, even today, the REEL is much higher. The real effective exchange rate, which we were following till not so long back, is still much higher than what it is,” Irani said.
Irani said the rupee fall probably is not bothering the RBI because on the fiscal front.
“I don't see the, that being the sole reason for RBI not to cut interest rates. As I said that on the demand front there, they want demand to be pushed and there is enough liquidity in the system for them to do that. So maybe I won't be too surprised if they undertake a 25 basis points cut,” he said.