Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty fell for the fourth straight session on Thursday, while midcap and smallcap indices took a severe hit amid concerns over possible fresh US tariffs and a weak global setup. Today's fall came amid a weakness across Japan, Hong Kong and China, tracking nearly 1 per cent slide in US stocks overnight. Investors were cautious of US jobs data today, ahead of the kick start of domestic earnings season next week. Persistent foreign outflows ahead of the Union Budget 2026 and geopolitical concerns also weighed on investor sentiment.
At 12.55 pm, the BSE Sensex was trading at at 84,292.06, down 669.08 points or 0.79 per cent. Nifty slipped below the 26,000 level and was quoting 221 points, or 0.85 per cent, lower at 25,920.05. Investor wealth, as suggested by the BSE market capitalisation, fell Rs 6.39 lakh crore to 4,73,54,936 crore compared with Rs 4,79,94,180 crore in the previous session. Analysts said advanced GDP estimates for FY26 were largely in line with Street expectations.
US tariffs
US tariffs on India and China are likely to rise by as much as 500 per cent as early as next week. US Senator Lindsey Graham said on Thursday that the US President Donald Trump had greenlit a bill to “punish” countries such as India, China and Brazil for continuing to purchase Russian oil despite sanctions. He said Trump had cleared the legislation, dubbed the Russia Sanctions Bill, after a “productive” meeting on Wednesday, and added that it could be put to a vote next week.
Weak global cues Japan’s Nikkei 225 settled 1.59 per cent lower at 51,136, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was trading down 1.62 per cent at 26,028.50. Chinese indices fell by up to 1 per cent. In overnight trade, the Dow Jones declined 0.94 per cent to 48,996.08, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.34 per cent to 6,920.93. Initial jobless claims will be released in the US later today.
Q3 earnings season MOFSL expects Nifty earnings to grow 8 per cent YoY in Q3. Excluding financials, the earnings is expected to jump 9 per cent YoY. Barring global commodities, Nifty earnings is seen growing 11 per cent YoY. Sales and Ebitda for Nifty companies are expected to grow 11 per cent YoY and 10 per cent YoY, respectively. For the quarter Ebitda margin for Nifty constituents is likely to contract 50 basis points to 22.1 per cent (ex-financials) during the quarter, MOFSL said.
Foreign outflows NSDL data showed foreign portfolio investors have pulled out Rs 6,241 crore worth equities in January. "Strong fundamentals are unlikely to reflect in the market very soon since the much-awaited US-India trade deal, which is critical for India’s sustained growth and macro-economic stability, is not happening. This and the continuing FII selling are impacting the market. Even though Indian large cap valuations are fair, cheaper valuations in other markets do not offer compelling need for FIIs to buy in India," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.
Union Budget 2026 Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn said the Union Budget 2026 is expected to be a cautious, tightly balanced budget focused more on strategic prioritisation than big announcements. With tax revenues under pressure due to last year’s income-tax relief, the government’s major focus will be to fund rising needs, especially defence, renewable energy, and semiconductors—without breaking fiscal discipline, e said.
Instead of aggressive public spending, this year's Budget will likely rely on a recovery in consumption and private investment to drive growth, while keeping overall capex growth moderate, Garg said.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty fell for the fourth straight session on Thursday, while midcap and smallcap indices took a severe hit amid concerns over possible fresh US tariffs and a weak global setup. Today's fall came amid a weakness across Japan, Hong Kong and China, tracking nearly 1 per cent slide in US stocks overnight. Investors were cautious of US jobs data today, ahead of the kick start of domestic earnings season next week. Persistent foreign outflows ahead of the Union Budget 2026 and geopolitical concerns also weighed on investor sentiment.
At 12.55 pm, the BSE Sensex was trading at at 84,292.06, down 669.08 points or 0.79 per cent. Nifty slipped below the 26,000 level and was quoting 221 points, or 0.85 per cent, lower at 25,920.05. Investor wealth, as suggested by the BSE market capitalisation, fell Rs 6.39 lakh crore to 4,73,54,936 crore compared with Rs 4,79,94,180 crore in the previous session. Analysts said advanced GDP estimates for FY26 were largely in line with Street expectations.
US tariffs
US tariffs on India and China are likely to rise by as much as 500 per cent as early as next week. US Senator Lindsey Graham said on Thursday that the US President Donald Trump had greenlit a bill to “punish” countries such as India, China and Brazil for continuing to purchase Russian oil despite sanctions. He said Trump had cleared the legislation, dubbed the Russia Sanctions Bill, after a “productive” meeting on Wednesday, and added that it could be put to a vote next week.
Weak global cues Japan’s Nikkei 225 settled 1.59 per cent lower at 51,136, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was trading down 1.62 per cent at 26,028.50. Chinese indices fell by up to 1 per cent. In overnight trade, the Dow Jones declined 0.94 per cent to 48,996.08, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.34 per cent to 6,920.93. Initial jobless claims will be released in the US later today.
Q3 earnings season MOFSL expects Nifty earnings to grow 8 per cent YoY in Q3. Excluding financials, the earnings is expected to jump 9 per cent YoY. Barring global commodities, Nifty earnings is seen growing 11 per cent YoY. Sales and Ebitda for Nifty companies are expected to grow 11 per cent YoY and 10 per cent YoY, respectively. For the quarter Ebitda margin for Nifty constituents is likely to contract 50 basis points to 22.1 per cent (ex-financials) during the quarter, MOFSL said.
Foreign outflows NSDL data showed foreign portfolio investors have pulled out Rs 6,241 crore worth equities in January. "Strong fundamentals are unlikely to reflect in the market very soon since the much-awaited US-India trade deal, which is critical for India’s sustained growth and macro-economic stability, is not happening. This and the continuing FII selling are impacting the market. Even though Indian large cap valuations are fair, cheaper valuations in other markets do not offer compelling need for FIIs to buy in India," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.
Union Budget 2026 Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn said the Union Budget 2026 is expected to be a cautious, tightly balanced budget focused more on strategic prioritisation than big announcements. With tax revenues under pressure due to last year’s income-tax relief, the government’s major focus will be to fund rising needs, especially defence, renewable energy, and semiconductors—without breaking fiscal discipline, e said.
Instead of aggressive public spending, this year's Budget will likely rely on a recovery in consumption and private investment to drive growth, while keeping overall capex growth moderate, Garg said.
