Sensex, Nifty outlook for Monday, April 6: What to expect from stock market? Key levels, trading strategy & more

Domestic equity markets ended a holiday-shortened, three-session trading week on a mostly flat note with a negative bias. The indices logged their sixth consecutive week of decline. Despite the overall weekly drop, where the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty edged lower by 0.35% and 0.46%, respectively, Thursday’s session witnessed a sharp recovery that helped offset deeper losses. 

The 30-pack Sensex closed at 73,319.55, while the 50-pack Nifty settled at 22,713.10. Both benchmarks rebounded roughly 2.4% in their last session to end in the green.

However, Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange recently traded down 165 points, or 0.73%, at 22,540, hinting at a negative opening.

Global cues

Despite the late-week rebound, the market’s remains fragile and influenced by external cues, such as elevated crude oil prices and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. 

Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered research analyst and founder of Livelong Wealth, observed that the strong demand emerging at lower levels indicates the market is attempting to build a near-term base. Still, he said that the broader trend is likely to remain 'sell on rise' in the near term unless the index can sustain itself above critical zones.

Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have been a stabilising force, cushioning the market with inflows of around Rs 29,250 crore, which nearly offset the Rs 29,400 crore in outflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs),  Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money noted.

“Recent gains appear to be relief-driven rather than indicative of a trend reversal, with rallies facing selling pressure and lacking sustained follow-through,” Ponmudi said.

“The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision will be a key event, with participants closely tracking guidance on interest rates and the inflation outlook,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Key levels to watch

Nifty: Analysts highlighted that the index is currently stabilising near the 22,700 zone. Hariprasad pointed to 22,500 as immediate support, with a critical demand base formed in the 22,000–22,100 zone. Mishra added that deeper support lies at the 200 WEMA of 21,930, followed by 21,750. 

On the upside, analysts broadly see immediate resistance between 22,800 and 23,000. Overcoming this could open the door to a stronger supply hurdle in the 23,200–23,500 zone.

Bank Nifty: Ponmudi notes the index is trading around 51,500, with a breakdown below 51,000 likely to push it toward the crucial 50,000 mark. Mishra identified further long-term support at 48,800 and 47,500. Resistance is staged around 52,000 to 52,500, with further supply pressure expected to be between 53,000 and 55,700.

Sensex: Currently near 73,300, the Sensex faces immediate resistance in the 73,800–74,000 range. Analysts believe an advance above 75,000 is necessary to meaningfully shift sentiment, whereas a break below 72,000 could trigger further correction toward the 71,500–71,000 zone.

Trading strategy

Hariprasad said for a highly selective approach, noting that the market is transitioning into a consolidation phase marked by low visibility. Mishra advised investors to prioritise capital preservation and tilt their portfolios toward fundamentally robust large-cap stocks with clear earnings visibility, while selectively exploring opportunities in metals, energy, and IT.