Sensex, Nifty outlook, strategy: Rise or fall on Wednesday? How will FY27 begin?
Nifty remained below the falling 10-DEMA, and repeated rejection near short-term averages reflects distribution on every bounce, said Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities.
- Mar 30, 2026,
- Updated Mar 30, 2026 5:34 PM IST
Benchmark stock indices Nifty and Sensex fell over 2 per cent each on Monday for the second session in a row, ending a challenging financial year on a weak note. For the day, Sensex tanked 1,635.67 points, or 2.22 per cent, to close at 71,947.55. Nifty settled the day at 22,331.40, down 488.20 points or 2.14 per cent. The two indices fell 3.6-5.6 per cent for FY26 and over 10 per cent each in the month of March. The market will be closed on Tuesday on account of Shri Mahavir Jayanti. It will resume trading on Wednesday.
Nifty outlook, strategy Technically, the 50 pack index remained below the falling 10-DEMA, and repeated rejection near short-term averages reflects distribution on every bounce, said Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities.
From a higher timeframe perspective, Dhameja said weekly chart indicated a breakdown below the recent consolidation range, pointing toward continuation of the corrective phase. On the monthly timeframe, the index witnessed the steepest single-month decline since the Covid-led fall, highlighting aggressive unwinding across the broader market.
Overall, unless the index reclaims 22,800, pullbacks are likely to remain short-lived, Dhameja said adding that sell-on-rise strategy continued to remain favorable.
"Nifty has declined 11 per cent during March. With the onset of the new series, it will be crucial to watch whether the index holds its long-term moving average, i.e., the 200-week EMA, placed around the 21,900 mark. Persistent weakness in key sectors—especially banking and financials—along with elevated volatility, as indicated by India VIX hovering near 28, suggests continued downside risk," said Ajit Mishra, SVP for Research at Religare Broking
Mishra said any Nifty pullback is likely to face resistance in the 22,600-23,000 zone, as he advised traders to remain cautious and prioritise risk management until stability returns.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. Request you to please incorporate his views in your story.
"The Nifty continues to move lower as the bears appear to be tireless fighters, with statements from the US and Iran providing support to the sellers. The Nifty has slipped toward its previous swing low on the daily chart, retracing almost 90% of the previous rise from the April 2025 low to the February 2026 high.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said while the Nifty seems to be finding support just above the rising trendline on the daily chart, another interesting formation is creating a silver lining — a hidden positive divergence on the daily RSI.
"Therefore, I won’t be surprised if the Nifty stages a decent recovery from Wednesday," he said.
"On the lower end, 22,200 is likely to act as a crucial support level, from where a significant rally might emerge. The view of a bullish reversal will be negated if the index slips below 22,200," De said.
Sensex outlook, strategy Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities said Sensex has broken a key support line at 72,500 and closed at 71,947. Based on the current market structure, the level of 72,500 could pose a significant hurdle for the market in the short term.
"Below these levels, the Sensex could soon decline to 71,300-71,000 levels. A close below 71,000 would raise further concerns. However, given the current pattern of sudden price declines in a short period of time, medium- to long-term investors may be tempted to invest in certain stocks," he said.
Above 72,500, he sees some short coverings on Sensex, which could take the index towards 73,100 levels. The strategy, he said, should be to buy certain stocks between 71,300 and 71,000.
What to watch? Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments said while valuations now appear more favourable after the recent correction, the trajectory of earnings revisions remains the key determinant of market direction.
"Continued volatility in oil prices and rupee weakness may exert pressure on input costs, increasing the risk of near-term earnings downgrades," he said.
Benchmark stock indices Nifty and Sensex fell over 2 per cent each on Monday for the second session in a row, ending a challenging financial year on a weak note. For the day, Sensex tanked 1,635.67 points, or 2.22 per cent, to close at 71,947.55. Nifty settled the day at 22,331.40, down 488.20 points or 2.14 per cent. The two indices fell 3.6-5.6 per cent for FY26 and over 10 per cent each in the month of March. The market will be closed on Tuesday on account of Shri Mahavir Jayanti. It will resume trading on Wednesday.
Nifty outlook, strategy Technically, the 50 pack index remained below the falling 10-DEMA, and repeated rejection near short-term averages reflects distribution on every bounce, said Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities.
From a higher timeframe perspective, Dhameja said weekly chart indicated a breakdown below the recent consolidation range, pointing toward continuation of the corrective phase. On the monthly timeframe, the index witnessed the steepest single-month decline since the Covid-led fall, highlighting aggressive unwinding across the broader market.
Overall, unless the index reclaims 22,800, pullbacks are likely to remain short-lived, Dhameja said adding that sell-on-rise strategy continued to remain favorable.
"Nifty has declined 11 per cent during March. With the onset of the new series, it will be crucial to watch whether the index holds its long-term moving average, i.e., the 200-week EMA, placed around the 21,900 mark. Persistent weakness in key sectors—especially banking and financials—along with elevated volatility, as indicated by India VIX hovering near 28, suggests continued downside risk," said Ajit Mishra, SVP for Research at Religare Broking
Mishra said any Nifty pullback is likely to face resistance in the 22,600-23,000 zone, as he advised traders to remain cautious and prioritise risk management until stability returns.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. Request you to please incorporate his views in your story.
"The Nifty continues to move lower as the bears appear to be tireless fighters, with statements from the US and Iran providing support to the sellers. The Nifty has slipped toward its previous swing low on the daily chart, retracing almost 90% of the previous rise from the April 2025 low to the February 2026 high.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said while the Nifty seems to be finding support just above the rising trendline on the daily chart, another interesting formation is creating a silver lining — a hidden positive divergence on the daily RSI.
"Therefore, I won’t be surprised if the Nifty stages a decent recovery from Wednesday," he said.
"On the lower end, 22,200 is likely to act as a crucial support level, from where a significant rally might emerge. The view of a bullish reversal will be negated if the index slips below 22,200," De said.
Sensex outlook, strategy Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities said Sensex has broken a key support line at 72,500 and closed at 71,947. Based on the current market structure, the level of 72,500 could pose a significant hurdle for the market in the short term.
"Below these levels, the Sensex could soon decline to 71,300-71,000 levels. A close below 71,000 would raise further concerns. However, given the current pattern of sudden price declines in a short period of time, medium- to long-term investors may be tempted to invest in certain stocks," he said.
Above 72,500, he sees some short coverings on Sensex, which could take the index towards 73,100 levels. The strategy, he said, should be to buy certain stocks between 71,300 and 71,000.
What to watch? Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments said while valuations now appear more favourable after the recent correction, the trajectory of earnings revisions remains the key determinant of market direction.
"Continued volatility in oil prices and rupee weakness may exert pressure on input costs, increasing the risk of near-term earnings downgrades," he said.