Sensex-to-gold ratio: What stock market investors should know; gold outlook for Samvat 2082
Over the past 35 years, the Sensex-to-Gold ratio has oscillated between 5.5 and 14.5, Samco Securities explained. Every major market peak — 1992, 2000, 2008, and 2018 — has coincided with a top in this ratio.
- Oct 17, 2025,
- Updated Oct 17, 2025 9:23 AM IST
The Sensex-to-gold ratio, a long-term barometer comparing the performance of Indian equities with gold since 1990, is sending an important message about the market’s mood heading into Samvat 2082, according to Samco Securities. A rising ratio indicates equities outperforming gold — a phase of optimism, growth, and risk-taking. Conversely, a falling ratio shows gold outperforming equities, signalling caution, fear, or capital preservation. In essence, this single chart captures the market’s long-term emotional cycle — greed versus fear, risk versus safety.
Over the past 35 years, the Sensex-to-Gold ratio has oscillated between 5.5 and 14.5, Samco Securities explained. Every major equity market peak — 1992, 2000, 2008, and 2018 — has coincided with a top in this ratio, while major market bottoms — 1993, 2001, 2009, 2011, and 2020 — aligned with sharp declines near 5.5, marking panic phases followed by massive equity recoveries.
The ratio has been falling sharply over the past year, driven more by gold’s outperformance than a drop in the Sensex. Samco said this reflects a soft rotation toward safety, not a fear-led equity selloff. “For investors, this means the signal is not yet fully complete,” the brokerage noted.
Historically, durable bottoms in the ratio have formed after a phase of equity capitulation. At present, the Sensex is down only 2–3 per cent from record highs, suggesting that unless a deeper correction unfolds, the next major equity cycle may still be some distance away.
“Until then, we recommend investors stay diversified and patient. Gold continues to hold its defensive edge, while equities may offer better entry points later in the year as the ratio stabilizes,” Samco said.
Gold outlook for Samvat 2082 After a 61 per cent rally since last Samvat, many investors are questioning whether gold’s bull run has peaked. Samco believes the uptrend is over, arguing that gold bull markets rarely end while central banks remain net buyers and real interest rates hover near neutral levels. The US dollar appears to have peaked following an aggressive tightening cycle. With inflation still sticky and the Federal Reserve expected to ease rates, liquidity could shift toward hard assets like gold and silver. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, along with BRICS-led de-dollarization, reinforce gold’s position as a “neutral reserve” asset.
India, the world’s second-largest gold consumer, faces a structurally weak rupee, which could push imported gold prices to new highs even if global prices consolidate. A robust wedding and festival season through Samvat 2082 should support steady demand. Additionally, ETF inflows are rising globally as investors who missed the initial rally look to re-enter, Samco said.
Samco reiterated that gold’s primary role is protection, not speculation. Historically, portfolios with gold have delivered better risk-adjusted returns than pure equity portfolios.
“If you are worried about entering after a sharp rally, start a SIP in gold — but for heaven’s sake, have gold in your portfolio,” Samco advised
The Sensex-to-gold ratio, a long-term barometer comparing the performance of Indian equities with gold since 1990, is sending an important message about the market’s mood heading into Samvat 2082, according to Samco Securities. A rising ratio indicates equities outperforming gold — a phase of optimism, growth, and risk-taking. Conversely, a falling ratio shows gold outperforming equities, signalling caution, fear, or capital preservation. In essence, this single chart captures the market’s long-term emotional cycle — greed versus fear, risk versus safety.
Over the past 35 years, the Sensex-to-Gold ratio has oscillated between 5.5 and 14.5, Samco Securities explained. Every major equity market peak — 1992, 2000, 2008, and 2018 — has coincided with a top in this ratio, while major market bottoms — 1993, 2001, 2009, 2011, and 2020 — aligned with sharp declines near 5.5, marking panic phases followed by massive equity recoveries.
The ratio has been falling sharply over the past year, driven more by gold’s outperformance than a drop in the Sensex. Samco said this reflects a soft rotation toward safety, not a fear-led equity selloff. “For investors, this means the signal is not yet fully complete,” the brokerage noted.
Historically, durable bottoms in the ratio have formed after a phase of equity capitulation. At present, the Sensex is down only 2–3 per cent from record highs, suggesting that unless a deeper correction unfolds, the next major equity cycle may still be some distance away.
“Until then, we recommend investors stay diversified and patient. Gold continues to hold its defensive edge, while equities may offer better entry points later in the year as the ratio stabilizes,” Samco said.
Gold outlook for Samvat 2082 After a 61 per cent rally since last Samvat, many investors are questioning whether gold’s bull run has peaked. Samco believes the uptrend is over, arguing that gold bull markets rarely end while central banks remain net buyers and real interest rates hover near neutral levels. The US dollar appears to have peaked following an aggressive tightening cycle. With inflation still sticky and the Federal Reserve expected to ease rates, liquidity could shift toward hard assets like gold and silver. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, along with BRICS-led de-dollarization, reinforce gold’s position as a “neutral reserve” asset.
India, the world’s second-largest gold consumer, faces a structurally weak rupee, which could push imported gold prices to new highs even if global prices consolidate. A robust wedding and festival season through Samvat 2082 should support steady demand. Additionally, ETF inflows are rising globally as investors who missed the initial rally look to re-enter, Samco said.
Samco reiterated that gold’s primary role is protection, not speculation. Historically, portfolios with gold have delivered better risk-adjusted returns than pure equity portfolios.
“If you are worried about entering after a sharp rally, start a SIP in gold — but for heaven’s sake, have gold in your portfolio,” Samco advised