Silver outlook 2026: Invest more or shift to gold? Mirae Asset MF explains
Mirae Asset MF said a gradual tilt towards gold may be warranted if the silver rally shows signs of exhaustion, in order to manage risk, along with an intent to book profits after the historic rally.
- Jan 1, 2026,
- Updated Jan 1, 2026 11:24 AM IST
Silver is now relatively expensive compared with gold, Mirae Asset Mutual Fund said in its 2026 outlook note, saying gold-silver ratio at 59.42 is well below its long-term average of 67.90 (since March 1998). After a historic rally, silver returns are likely to moderate, with a higher risk of drawdowns than gold, the fund house said.
"While it is difficult to call out the top, one can expect returns to moderate significantly. We expect silver to have higher drawdown risk than gold, as gold may find support from central banks at lower levels. At present, within commodities, a balanced allocation between precious metals remains appropriate, with an equal emphasis on gold and silver at this stage," it said.
Mirae Asset MF said a gradual tilt towards gold may be warranted if the silver rally shows signs of exhaustion, in order to manage risk, along with an intent to book profits after the historic rally.
"Any fresh investments should now be ready for higher volatility, should come for longer horizon and seek to avoid excessive allocation at this stage," Mirae Asset MF
Mirae Asset noted that the gold–silver ratio had risen as high as 120 in 2020 and remained above 100 in the first half of 2025, underscoring how stretched silver valuations had become.
Gold outlook 2026 On gold, Mirae Asset said the metal entered 2026 against a backdrop of persistent geopolitical uncertainty, sticky US inflation, an ongoing rate-cut cycle, and a weaker dollar, echoing conditions seen in 2025. While recent price gains had raised near-term risk, the firm said macroeconomic and geopolitical factors continued to support gold rather than pose headwinds. Central bank purchases, unresolved trade disputes, and geopolitical tensions were expected to reinforce gold’s safe-haven appeal, while investment demand remained a key support even in a bearish scenario.
Silver outlook 2026 On silver, Mirae Asset MF said the 2025 rally had been driven by a combination of a structural supply deficit, strong industrial demand, and tightening physical availability. It highlighted that COMEX-registered inventories had fallen nearly 70 per cent from 2020 levels. Supply concerns intensified after China announced stricter export licensing rules effective January 2026, raising fears of global delivery stress. The rally was further amplified by speculative positioning and exchange-traded fund inflows once silver crossed key price thresholds.
Looking ahead, Mirae Asset said that following sharp gains in 2025, both gold and silver prices were now elevated, increasing the likelihood of higher volatility and intermittent downside risk. While near-term positioning appeared stretched, particularly in silver, the firm said strong industrial demand and tight inventories continued to provide a supportive long-term backdrop, suggesting any corrections were likely to play out within a broader positive trend.
Silver is now relatively expensive compared with gold, Mirae Asset Mutual Fund said in its 2026 outlook note, saying gold-silver ratio at 59.42 is well below its long-term average of 67.90 (since March 1998). After a historic rally, silver returns are likely to moderate, with a higher risk of drawdowns than gold, the fund house said.
"While it is difficult to call out the top, one can expect returns to moderate significantly. We expect silver to have higher drawdown risk than gold, as gold may find support from central banks at lower levels. At present, within commodities, a balanced allocation between precious metals remains appropriate, with an equal emphasis on gold and silver at this stage," it said.
Mirae Asset MF said a gradual tilt towards gold may be warranted if the silver rally shows signs of exhaustion, in order to manage risk, along with an intent to book profits after the historic rally.
"Any fresh investments should now be ready for higher volatility, should come for longer horizon and seek to avoid excessive allocation at this stage," Mirae Asset MF
Mirae Asset noted that the gold–silver ratio had risen as high as 120 in 2020 and remained above 100 in the first half of 2025, underscoring how stretched silver valuations had become.
Gold outlook 2026 On gold, Mirae Asset said the metal entered 2026 against a backdrop of persistent geopolitical uncertainty, sticky US inflation, an ongoing rate-cut cycle, and a weaker dollar, echoing conditions seen in 2025. While recent price gains had raised near-term risk, the firm said macroeconomic and geopolitical factors continued to support gold rather than pose headwinds. Central bank purchases, unresolved trade disputes, and geopolitical tensions were expected to reinforce gold’s safe-haven appeal, while investment demand remained a key support even in a bearish scenario.
Silver outlook 2026 On silver, Mirae Asset MF said the 2025 rally had been driven by a combination of a structural supply deficit, strong industrial demand, and tightening physical availability. It highlighted that COMEX-registered inventories had fallen nearly 70 per cent from 2020 levels. Supply concerns intensified after China announced stricter export licensing rules effective January 2026, raising fears of global delivery stress. The rally was further amplified by speculative positioning and exchange-traded fund inflows once silver crossed key price thresholds.
Looking ahead, Mirae Asset said that following sharp gains in 2025, both gold and silver prices were now elevated, increasing the likelihood of higher volatility and intermittent downside risk. While near-term positioning appeared stretched, particularly in silver, the firm said strong industrial demand and tight inventories continued to provide a supportive long-term backdrop, suggesting any corrections were likely to play out within a broader positive trend.