Stock market: BJP’s win in West Bengal, hat-trick in Assam: What analysts say
As BJP expands its footprint across states, greater policy stability could support a more predictable macro environment, beneficial for stable interest rates and equity markets, analysts said.
- May 5, 2026,
- Updated May 5, 2026 9:48 AM IST
With assembly elections over, stock analysts said the government's focus will shift to fiscal discipline and sustained capital expenditure. A key objective is likely to be maintaining a stable and lower cost of capital to crowd in private investment, while continuing to improve the ease of doing business, they said. As the BJP expands its footprint across states, greater political and policy stability could support a more predictable macro environment, beneficial for stable interest rates and stock markets, said Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities.
MOFSL said multiple state election verdict will be viewed positively by the market, not only for the message of a progressive change but more from the lens of policy continuity as the hands of the ruling NDA have become stronger and any faint memories and concerns of 2024 Lok Sabha setback have been convincingly wiped.
"Considering the assembly election win over last few years, NDA now control states accounting for 68 per cent of GDP and is likely to further increase its Rajya Sabha seat tally by 1 to 148 in 2026. Given the strong political mandate both in centre and state, we believe that the reform intensity may continue," said Antique Stock Broking.
The state election results indicate a clear anti-incumbency trend, except in states governed by the BJP or NDA. The BJP made a hat-trick in Assam but saw minor setbacks in Puducherry, while achieving a sweeping victory in West Bengal, analysts said adding that BJP’s vote share has increased across most states, with the notable exception of Kerala, where it has remained broadly stable.
Nirmal Bang said with over 60 per cent of Lok Sabha seats now represented by NDA-governed states, there is greater scope for enhanced centre–state coordination.
"This could support political stability, policy continuity, and faster implementation of reforms, potentially leading to stronger economic growth," it said.
Emkay Global said BJP’s expanding footprint in a major eastern state like West Bengal ahead of next year’s Uttar Pradesh (UP) elections reinforces its claim of evolving into a truly pan-India party, especially as it strings together consistent state-level victories after a relatively weak showing in the 2024 general elections.
Kerala, it said, is seeing clear anti-incumbency, with the LDF ceding power to the Congress-led UDF after two consecutive terms.
"However, the biggest surprise comes from a fresh wave of disruptive politics in TN, with Vijay and his party, TVK, signaling a system-level shift in a state long dominated by the Dravidian duopoly of DMK and AIADMK," it said.
This brokerage said politics is now firmly anchored in aggressive welfarism, driving persistent expenditure rigidities. "Since 2023, election cycles have lifted fiscal drift/GDP by 1ppt with limited reversal, while revenue spending remains sticky and capex stagnates—crowding out productive investment. With aggregate state deficits already drifting above targets, sizable pre-poll promises in TN and WB risk structurally elevating deficits," Emkay said.
Meanwhile, the policy focus is seen remaining on formalisation of the economy, fiscal discipline, and improving the ease of doing business, including labour market reforms. Continued emphasis on capital expenditure and infrastructure development is also expected.
With assembly elections over, stock analysts said the government's focus will shift to fiscal discipline and sustained capital expenditure. A key objective is likely to be maintaining a stable and lower cost of capital to crowd in private investment, while continuing to improve the ease of doing business, they said. As the BJP expands its footprint across states, greater political and policy stability could support a more predictable macro environment, beneficial for stable interest rates and stock markets, said Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities.
MOFSL said multiple state election verdict will be viewed positively by the market, not only for the message of a progressive change but more from the lens of policy continuity as the hands of the ruling NDA have become stronger and any faint memories and concerns of 2024 Lok Sabha setback have been convincingly wiped.
"Considering the assembly election win over last few years, NDA now control states accounting for 68 per cent of GDP and is likely to further increase its Rajya Sabha seat tally by 1 to 148 in 2026. Given the strong political mandate both in centre and state, we believe that the reform intensity may continue," said Antique Stock Broking.
The state election results indicate a clear anti-incumbency trend, except in states governed by the BJP or NDA. The BJP made a hat-trick in Assam but saw minor setbacks in Puducherry, while achieving a sweeping victory in West Bengal, analysts said adding that BJP’s vote share has increased across most states, with the notable exception of Kerala, where it has remained broadly stable.
Nirmal Bang said with over 60 per cent of Lok Sabha seats now represented by NDA-governed states, there is greater scope for enhanced centre–state coordination.
"This could support political stability, policy continuity, and faster implementation of reforms, potentially leading to stronger economic growth," it said.
Emkay Global said BJP’s expanding footprint in a major eastern state like West Bengal ahead of next year’s Uttar Pradesh (UP) elections reinforces its claim of evolving into a truly pan-India party, especially as it strings together consistent state-level victories after a relatively weak showing in the 2024 general elections.
Kerala, it said, is seeing clear anti-incumbency, with the LDF ceding power to the Congress-led UDF after two consecutive terms.
"However, the biggest surprise comes from a fresh wave of disruptive politics in TN, with Vijay and his party, TVK, signaling a system-level shift in a state long dominated by the Dravidian duopoly of DMK and AIADMK," it said.
This brokerage said politics is now firmly anchored in aggressive welfarism, driving persistent expenditure rigidities. "Since 2023, election cycles have lifted fiscal drift/GDP by 1ppt with limited reversal, while revenue spending remains sticky and capex stagnates—crowding out productive investment. With aggregate state deficits already drifting above targets, sizable pre-poll promises in TN and WB risk structurally elevating deficits," Emkay said.
Meanwhile, the policy focus is seen remaining on formalisation of the economy, fiscal discipline, and improving the ease of doing business, including labour market reforms. Continued emphasis on capital expenditure and infrastructure development is also expected.