Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 83 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices is set to open stronger on Monday, with positive business updates reinforcing expectations of improved quarterly earnings and boosting sentiment. Global investors assessed the repercussions of a dramatic weekend of events, which saw the US capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 83.10 points, or 0.31 per cent, down at 26,538.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stocks climbed on Monday ahead of a packed week of economic data releases in the first full trading week of the year. Nikkei and KOSPI rose more than 2 per cent each, while Hang Seng edged higher.

Indian equity markets are set to begin the week on a bullish note, supported by firm global cues and improving optimism ahead of the Q3 earnings season. A sharp rally across Asian markets has lifted broader emerging market sentiment, providing a positive spillover for Indian equities, said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.

The Dow and S&P 500 indexes ended higher on Friday, starting 2026 by snapping a four-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 319.10 points, or 0.66 per cent, to 48,382.39, the S&P 500 gained 12.97 points, or 0.19 per cent, to 6,858.47 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 6.36 points, or 0.03 per cent, to 23,235.63.

The dollar started the first full trading week of the New Year on the front foot, rising to a 3-1/2-week peak versus the euro and a two-week high against the yen. The US dollar index was last up 0.1 per cent at 98.55, extending recent gains into a fifth consecutive day. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was up 0.2 basis points at 4.187 per cent.

Oil prices were choppy as investors considered the implications of US military action in Venezuela. Brent crude futures rose 15 cents to $60.89 a barrel after paring earlier losses. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.43 a barrel. Elsewhere, gold tacked on 1 per cent to trade at $4,371.29. Bitcoin climbed 0.2 per cent to $91,452.90.

With supportive domestic macro cues and improving earnings visibility, a constructive yet selective approach remains advisable. Investors may continue to favor structurally strong sectors that stand to benefit from the ongoing capex and growth cycle, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Caution is warranted in defensive and export-heavy sectors until demand signals emerge."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 289.80 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 677.38 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs pulled out Rs 7,608 crore from Indian equities in just two trading sessions of January 2026.

The year 2026 is likely to witness some changes in the FII strategy, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. "Significant improvement in India’s fundamentals are likely to attract net FII inflows in 2026. Robust GDP growth and prospects of improvement in corporate earnings in 2026 augur well for positive FII flows in 2026."

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Technically, Nifty has formed a bullish candle on weekly charts and it is holding an uptrend continuation formation on daily charts, which is largely positive. For trend-following traders, 26,250/85,500 and 26,100/85,000 would act as key support zones, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"As long as the market is trading above these levels, the bullish momentum is likely to continue. On the higher side, the market could continue rallying till 26,500/86,200. Further upside may also push the index up to 26,700/86,700. However, below 26,100/85,000, the uptrend would become vulnerable," he said.

As long as Nifty sustains above 26,300 levels, market sentiment is expected to remain constructive and upward-biased. Immediate resistance is placed at 26,400 on the upside, followed by 26,500 and 26,600, while on the downside, support is seen at 26,200 and then at 26,100, said Choice Broking.

"A deeper breakdown below 26,000 could invite additional downside pressure. Given the current market structure, a buy-on-dips strategy remains appropriate; however, traders should remain disciplined and adhere to strict stop-losses in view of ongoing market volatility," he said.  

Nifty Bank outlook

Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities expects Nifty Bank to maintain its upward path in the near term, given this robust setup, with potential targets at 60,600 and subsequently 61,200. "The zone between 59,700-59,600 will serve as the immediate support area on the downside. A hold above this band should keep the bullish structure intact."

Nifty Bank formed a bullish Marubozu candle on the daily charts, highlighting strong buying interest from the opening bell and firm control by bulls throughout the session, said Bajaj Broking.

"It continues to trade well above its key moving averages and has also surpassed its earlier swing high, signaling potential for further record highs. On the downside, immediate support has moved up to the 59,800 level, followed by 59,500. On the upside, near-term resistance is placed around 60,500, with the next hurdle seen near 60,800," it added.