Suzlon, JSW Energy, Inox Wind, Tata Power, Adani Power, BHEL: Q3 preview, target prices

The third quarter of FY26 for the power sector is expected to be a mixed bag, characterised by a clear divergence in performance between thermal heavyweights and green energy/equipment manufacturers, according to JM Financial. 

While the thermal Plant Load Factor (PLF) cooled down to 60.8 per cent from 64.1 per cent a year ago, hydro and renewable generation spiked by 13 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively.

For the thermal giants, the quarter has been tepid. NTPC is likely to report a moderate quarter with a projected 3 per cent decline in generation. The brokerage estimates NTPC’s revenue to inch up by just 2 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 45,839 crore, while Profit After Tax (PAT) could see a dip of 7 per cent to Rs 5,147 crore.

Similarly, Adani Power is expected to post a flat quarter and is expected to remain flat YoY and QoQ due to subdued thermal demand, it said. Revenue is pegged at Rs 13,591 crore, a marginal 1 per cent decline, though EBITDA margins might expand slightly to 38.6 per cent.

For Tata Power, net sales are expected to fall 11 per cent YoY to Rs 13,759 crore. The brokerage attributes this largely to the Mundra plant not being operational during the period.

In the private renewable space, JSW Energy revenue is likely to jump 79 per cent YoY to Rs 4,368 crore, led by incremental contribution in generation from acquisition of KSK Mahanadi, Unit-II of Utkal TPP and Mytrah.

Torrent Power is also seeing a downturn, with revenue likely dipping 5 per cent owing to a sharp 20 per cent fall in gas power generation, it said.

Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) is expected to stage a strong turnaround with net revenue rising 22 per cent YoY. More importantly, the brokerage sees PAT surging 193 per cent to Rs 395 crore.

In contrast, NHPC is poised for a standout performance. JM Financial projects a massive 244 per cent YoY jump in PAT to Rs 794 crore, driven by a 25 per cent surge in generation due to better hydrology.

SJVN is also expected to shine with a 46 per cent jump in revenue to Rs 977 crore and a 15 per cent rise in PAT. 

Adani Green Energy is expected to see a 12 per cent rise in sales and a 43 per cent jump in EBITDA, though high finance costs from new capacity commissioning could drag PAT down significantly by 72 per cent.

Suzlon Energy is projected to see a 34 per cent surge in revenue, with PAT climbing 40 per cent to Rs 543 crore on account of higher dispatches. Inox Wind is likely to report a 46 per cent revenue jump, the brokerage said. Coal India is expected to face a tough quarter. The mining behemoth’s revenue is projected to dip 6 per cent to Rs 34,480 crore due to a 4 per cent decline in dispatches. 

Meanwhile, Power Grid Corporation is expected to remain a steady compounding machine, with a modest 2 per cent revenue growth but a 9 per cent dip in PAT.

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