Suzlon shares: Why Motilal Oswal sees 55% rally; Check Q3 preview, target & more
Domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services continues to remain positive on Suzlon Energy as it believes that the risk reward ratio remains favorable for the investors.
- Jan 20, 2026,
- Updated Jan 20, 2026 10:02 AM IST
Domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services continues to remain positive on Suzlon Energy as it believes that the risk reward ratio remains favorable for the investors. To recall, Suzlon's share price has been under pressure, declining 15 per cent so far in FY26. Motilal Oswal noted that key investor concerns are related to the cannibalization of wind share in tenders from the solar + BESS segment, a slow pace of wind installation, and rising competitive intensity in wind. However, the brokerage has maintained its 'buy' call, hinting at 55 per cent upside in the stock. "We estimate 20-24GW of incremental demand: We estimate that data centers, C&I consumers and PSUs could together drive incremental wind demand of 20-24GW by 2030 (comprising 20 per cent from data centers, 45 per cent from C&I consumers and 35 per cent from PSUs), over and above India’s targeted 100GW wind capacity by FY30," it said. EPC strategy as a key differentiator as Suzlon's strategy to scale up its EPC share to 50 per cent of the order book is a meaningful competitive advantage. It has a superior execution track record over domestic peers, coupled with the limited participation of Chinese OEMs in the EPC space. Shares of Suzlon Energy weakened another 2 per cent on Tuesday, falling to Rs 47.17, with its market capitalization falling below Rs 65,000 crore. The stock is down 11 per cent in the last one month, while it has dropped nearly 30 per cent in the last six months. About 15-17GW of wind projects are currently at the bidding/award stage, providing healthy visibility for near-term order inflows, said the brokerage. "With the current order book of 6.5GW, Suzlon has full coverage of our estimated WTG deliveries for 2HFY26/FY27 of 1.5GW/3.4GW and 38 per cent of our estimated 4GW deliveries in FY28." Industry channel checks suggest 17GW are pure solar, with wind accounting for a negligible share of the 40GW of projects with pending PPAs. Suzlon's management expects a portion of these projects to be re-bid as FDRE, which could materially improve the addressable opportunity for wind, noted Motilal Oswal. The brokerage expects exports to emerge as an additional growth driver, with management expecting to start receiving export orders in early FY27 with supplies starting from FY28. While wind’s share in China’s annual RE additions declined from 25 per cent to 18 per cent between CY15 and CY24, installed wind capacity in absolute terms increased 2.4 times, it said. We believe this has lessons for wind share trajectory in India too. We see revenue would grow 52 per cent YoY/17 per cent QoQ as we expect execution of 671MW of wind turbine orders, up 50 per cent YoY and 19 per cent QoQ in December 2025 quarter. Ebitda is likely to increase 66 per cent, with margins expected to be at 18 per cent," it added with a 'buy a target price of Rs 74. Shares of Suzlon have been on a downward trajectory. The stock has tanked 37 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 74.30, hit in May 2025. The stock remains marginally shy of its 52-week low at Rs 46, hit in April 2025. In the last one year, the stock is down 20 per cent. The company is yet to announce the date for its December 2025 quarter. Among other brokerage firms, Nuvama Institutional Equities expects execution of 740MW in Q3FY26 as H1FY26 performance exudes optimism to deliver a good execution number. Q3 margins to be around 18 per cent. Further execution ramp up and margin remain key monitorables going forward. It has a 'hold' rating on target price of Rs 60. JM Financial Ltd sees Suzlon’s revenue to surge 34 per cent YoY on account of higher dispatches. "We expect dispatches to be at 570MW with an increase in Ebitda due to operating leverage," it added with a 'buy' rating and a target price of Rs 70 apeice.
Domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services continues to remain positive on Suzlon Energy as it believes that the risk reward ratio remains favorable for the investors. To recall, Suzlon's share price has been under pressure, declining 15 per cent so far in FY26. Motilal Oswal noted that key investor concerns are related to the cannibalization of wind share in tenders from the solar + BESS segment, a slow pace of wind installation, and rising competitive intensity in wind. However, the brokerage has maintained its 'buy' call, hinting at 55 per cent upside in the stock. "We estimate 20-24GW of incremental demand: We estimate that data centers, C&I consumers and PSUs could together drive incremental wind demand of 20-24GW by 2030 (comprising 20 per cent from data centers, 45 per cent from C&I consumers and 35 per cent from PSUs), over and above India’s targeted 100GW wind capacity by FY30," it said. EPC strategy as a key differentiator as Suzlon's strategy to scale up its EPC share to 50 per cent of the order book is a meaningful competitive advantage. It has a superior execution track record over domestic peers, coupled with the limited participation of Chinese OEMs in the EPC space. Shares of Suzlon Energy weakened another 2 per cent on Tuesday, falling to Rs 47.17, with its market capitalization falling below Rs 65,000 crore. The stock is down 11 per cent in the last one month, while it has dropped nearly 30 per cent in the last six months. About 15-17GW of wind projects are currently at the bidding/award stage, providing healthy visibility for near-term order inflows, said the brokerage. "With the current order book of 6.5GW, Suzlon has full coverage of our estimated WTG deliveries for 2HFY26/FY27 of 1.5GW/3.4GW and 38 per cent of our estimated 4GW deliveries in FY28." Industry channel checks suggest 17GW are pure solar, with wind accounting for a negligible share of the 40GW of projects with pending PPAs. Suzlon's management expects a portion of these projects to be re-bid as FDRE, which could materially improve the addressable opportunity for wind, noted Motilal Oswal. The brokerage expects exports to emerge as an additional growth driver, with management expecting to start receiving export orders in early FY27 with supplies starting from FY28. While wind’s share in China’s annual RE additions declined from 25 per cent to 18 per cent between CY15 and CY24, installed wind capacity in absolute terms increased 2.4 times, it said. We believe this has lessons for wind share trajectory in India too. We see revenue would grow 52 per cent YoY/17 per cent QoQ as we expect execution of 671MW of wind turbine orders, up 50 per cent YoY and 19 per cent QoQ in December 2025 quarter. Ebitda is likely to increase 66 per cent, with margins expected to be at 18 per cent," it added with a 'buy a target price of Rs 74. Shares of Suzlon have been on a downward trajectory. The stock has tanked 37 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 74.30, hit in May 2025. The stock remains marginally shy of its 52-week low at Rs 46, hit in April 2025. In the last one year, the stock is down 20 per cent. The company is yet to announce the date for its December 2025 quarter. Among other brokerage firms, Nuvama Institutional Equities expects execution of 740MW in Q3FY26 as H1FY26 performance exudes optimism to deliver a good execution number. Q3 margins to be around 18 per cent. Further execution ramp up and margin remain key monitorables going forward. It has a 'hold' rating on target price of Rs 60. JM Financial Ltd sees Suzlon’s revenue to surge 34 per cent YoY on account of higher dispatches. "We expect dispatches to be at 570MW with an increase in Ebitda due to operating leverage," it added with a 'buy' rating and a target price of Rs 70 apeice.