Suzlon shares: Why Ventura sees limited upside despite strong sector tailwinds
Domestic brokerage firm Ventura Securities has shared its view on Suzlon Energy. It sees Suzlon as a structurally strong wind energy play, but with limited upside in the near-term.
- Dec 22, 2025,
- Updated Dec 22, 2025 12:06 PM IST
Domestic brokerage firm Ventura Securities has shared its view on Suzlon Energy Ltd. It sees Suzlon as a structurally strong wind energy play, but with limited upside in the near-term. The rising execution risks at current valuations, dent sentiments for its upside. Ventura believes that all positives are largely priced in for the stock.
Suzlon's operations and maintenance (OMS) business, managing 15.1 GW of assets, drives stable income with growth expected in FY26. Despite working capital challenges from its capital-intensive manufacturing, Suzlon has secured Rs 7,000 crore in non-fund-based facilities to manage risks, it said.
Suzlon operates vertically integrated business model, providing end-to-end wind power solutions from the manufacturing of wind turbine components to the installation and long-term operation and maintenance of wind farms. Suzlon's S144 3.15 MW turbine leads in low-wind conditions, but innovation and scaling up will be key to maintaining its competitive edge, it noted.
The Indian wind energy sector is poised for significant growth, with a target to add 6 GW in FY26 and 100 GW by 2030. The government's strong focus on increasing non-fossil fuel capacity and the reduction in GST on wind turbines from 12 per cent to 5 per cent is expected to accelerate capacity additions and lower the levelized cost of energy.
"Suzlon Energy, with a 30-32 per cent market share, is a leading player in the sector and stands to gain from these supportive policies and the growing demand for renewable energy in India," Ventura adds. "Suzlon will avoid tax liabilities until it reaches Rs 14,000 crore in profits post-Q2 FY26, with its Rs 1,229 crore deferred tax asset offsetting future tax obligations."
"We expect Suzlon to compound revenue at roughly 34 per cent CAGR to Rs 25,987 crore and we expect net volumes to grow at a CAGR of 34 per cent to reach 3690 MW over FY25-28E. EBITDA is expected to grow at a CAGR of 39 per cent to reach Rs 4,780 crore, with margins expected to improve by 190 bps to 19.2 per cent," it said.
Net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28 per cent to reach Rs 4,341 crore and net margins are expected to decline by 230 bps to 16.7 per cent. ROE is expected to decline by 1100 bps to 25 per cent, notes Ventura. "We recommend a 'hold' with a price target of Rs 56 (17.7 times FY27 P/E)."
As risk to its estimates, Ventura said that Suzlon faces headwinds from price competition, longer tender cycles, and potential execution delays, with cost pressures and execution risks impacting margin stability and future order inflow.
Shares of Suzlon Energy jumped more than 2 per cent to Rs 53.72 on Monday, commanding a market capitalization close to Rs 74,500 crore. The stock had settled at Rs 52.59 on Friday. The stock is down 30 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 74.30, hit in May 2025.
On a technical basis, Kunal Shah, Senior Technical Analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan said that Suzlon energy continues to trade in a clear downtrend, with the price structure defined by lower tops and lower bottoms on the daily chart. It is trading below key short- and medium-term moving averages, reinforcing the 'sell on rise' bias and confirming that bears remain in control.
"In this context, the Rs 60 zone emerges as a strong overhead resistance, aligned with recent swing highs and clustered moving averages; any pullback rallies towards this area are likely to attract fresh supply. Given the recent sharp correction and oversold readings on indicators such as RSI and Stochastics, a short-term bounce cannot be ruled out, but such a move should be treated as an exit or lightening-up opportunity rather than a trend reversal signal," he said.
However, other brokerage firms continue to remain positive on Suzlon Energy stock. Anand Rathi Share & Stock Brokers, ICICI Securities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services and JM Financial have a 'buy' rating on it with target price of Rs 82, Rs 76, Rs 74 and Rs 70, respectively. However, Nuvama Institutional Equities gave it 'hold' rating with a target price of Rs 60 apiece.
Domestic brokerage firm Ventura Securities has shared its view on Suzlon Energy Ltd. It sees Suzlon as a structurally strong wind energy play, but with limited upside in the near-term. The rising execution risks at current valuations, dent sentiments for its upside. Ventura believes that all positives are largely priced in for the stock.
Suzlon's operations and maintenance (OMS) business, managing 15.1 GW of assets, drives stable income with growth expected in FY26. Despite working capital challenges from its capital-intensive manufacturing, Suzlon has secured Rs 7,000 crore in non-fund-based facilities to manage risks, it said.
Suzlon operates vertically integrated business model, providing end-to-end wind power solutions from the manufacturing of wind turbine components to the installation and long-term operation and maintenance of wind farms. Suzlon's S144 3.15 MW turbine leads in low-wind conditions, but innovation and scaling up will be key to maintaining its competitive edge, it noted.
The Indian wind energy sector is poised for significant growth, with a target to add 6 GW in FY26 and 100 GW by 2030. The government's strong focus on increasing non-fossil fuel capacity and the reduction in GST on wind turbines from 12 per cent to 5 per cent is expected to accelerate capacity additions and lower the levelized cost of energy.
"Suzlon Energy, with a 30-32 per cent market share, is a leading player in the sector and stands to gain from these supportive policies and the growing demand for renewable energy in India," Ventura adds. "Suzlon will avoid tax liabilities until it reaches Rs 14,000 crore in profits post-Q2 FY26, with its Rs 1,229 crore deferred tax asset offsetting future tax obligations."
"We expect Suzlon to compound revenue at roughly 34 per cent CAGR to Rs 25,987 crore and we expect net volumes to grow at a CAGR of 34 per cent to reach 3690 MW over FY25-28E. EBITDA is expected to grow at a CAGR of 39 per cent to reach Rs 4,780 crore, with margins expected to improve by 190 bps to 19.2 per cent," it said.
Net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28 per cent to reach Rs 4,341 crore and net margins are expected to decline by 230 bps to 16.7 per cent. ROE is expected to decline by 1100 bps to 25 per cent, notes Ventura. "We recommend a 'hold' with a price target of Rs 56 (17.7 times FY27 P/E)."
As risk to its estimates, Ventura said that Suzlon faces headwinds from price competition, longer tender cycles, and potential execution delays, with cost pressures and execution risks impacting margin stability and future order inflow.
Shares of Suzlon Energy jumped more than 2 per cent to Rs 53.72 on Monday, commanding a market capitalization close to Rs 74,500 crore. The stock had settled at Rs 52.59 on Friday. The stock is down 30 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 74.30, hit in May 2025.
On a technical basis, Kunal Shah, Senior Technical Analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan said that Suzlon energy continues to trade in a clear downtrend, with the price structure defined by lower tops and lower bottoms on the daily chart. It is trading below key short- and medium-term moving averages, reinforcing the 'sell on rise' bias and confirming that bears remain in control.
"In this context, the Rs 60 zone emerges as a strong overhead resistance, aligned with recent swing highs and clustered moving averages; any pullback rallies towards this area are likely to attract fresh supply. Given the recent sharp correction and oversold readings on indicators such as RSI and Stochastics, a short-term bounce cannot be ruled out, but such a move should be treated as an exit or lightening-up opportunity rather than a trend reversal signal," he said.
However, other brokerage firms continue to remain positive on Suzlon Energy stock. Anand Rathi Share & Stock Brokers, ICICI Securities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services and JM Financial have a 'buy' rating on it with target price of Rs 82, Rs 76, Rs 74 and Rs 70, respectively. However, Nuvama Institutional Equities gave it 'hold' rating with a target price of Rs 60 apiece.