Tata Motors shares: JLR sales up, India PV soft; here are stock price targets

Analysts are neutral-to-positive on Tata Motors Ltd shares, following Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) sales data. Emkay Global has retained its 'Buy' rating on Tata Motors Ltd, citing a strong come back at British arm JLR, accompanied by best-ever model mix. This is even as outlook for India passenger vehicle (PV) stayed soft.  MOFSL is not-so-positive on the stock's prospects. It suggested a 'Neutral' rating on Tata Motors.  

Emkay Global said the JLR improvement continues along expected lines, with the company on track for £1 billion free cash flow this year, along with a net-cash balance sheet. It said India commercial vehicle (CV) space is also seen recovering, albeit gradually, amid delays in public capex uptick. India PV outlook, however, is soft amid growth concerns and rising EV competition. 

It suggested a revised SoTP-based target price of Rs 950, after roll-over to Dec-26E. The target suggests 19.5 per cent upside over the prevailing market price. Elara Securities has a 'Buy' rating with a target of Rs 1,088 on Tata Motors. Nuvama has 'Reduce' rating on Tata Motors and a target of Rs 750.   

"Tata Motors stock has corrected 32 per cent from its peak, largely driven by muted growth estimates across underlying industries and cost-related pressure, particularly in JLR. While management has maintained its guidance for JLR during 2QFY25 results, we think it is likely to see persistent margin pressure over FY24-27," said MOFSL.

MOFSL said weak demand in key regions, rising cost pressure, normalising mix; and EV ramp-up, which is likely to be margin-dilutive, may weigh. Even in India, both CV and PV businesses are seeing moderation in demand, it suggested. This brokerage maintained 'Neutral' with December 2026 SOTP-based target price of Rs 810.

JLR recorded a 3 per cent YoY rise or 20 per cent QoQ jump in wholesales in Q3 at 1,04,000 units, despite the temporary discontinuation of Jaguar in UK. This came along with the best-ever model mix.  The share of Range Rover, Range Rover Sport, and Defender rose to 70 per cent against 67 per cent in Q2 and 62 per cent in the year-ago quarter. 

"Largely normalized production and strong mix are seen driving sharp QoQ margin improvement at JLR (15 per cent vs 11.7 per cent/15.8 per cent in Q2/Q1). Elsewhere, India CV outlook is improving (albeit gradually, amid slower than anticipated public capex uptick), while India PV outlook remains soft despite the recent Curvv SUV launch, with emerging EV competition slated to impact Tata Motors' positioning," EMkay Global said. 

This brokerage has trimmed India PV EPS estimates by 4.5 per cent for FY26 and 2.5 per cent for FY27, driving 1.6 per cent lower estimated FY27 consolidated EPS. 

"We introduc 20 per cent discount in the target multiple for India PVs (1.3 times December 2026 EV/S vs 1.7 times for MSIL); after roll-over to Dec-26E, our revised SoTP-based target is Rs950. We retain BUY, amid JLR staying on track for £1bn FCF this year with net-cash balance sheet, and India CV outlook gradually improving with better profitability," it said.