Tata Power, IEX, NTPC, CESC, JSW Energy, NHPC, Torrent Power: Q2 results preview

Antique Stock Broking on Monday released its Q2 FY26 earnings preview for a coverage universe of private and public sector utilities, including Tata Power, IEX, NTPC, CESC, JSW Energy, NHPC, Torrent Power, and Coal India. The brokerage expects overall Ebitda for its utilities universe (excluding Coal India) to rise 7 per cent YoY, with PAT growth of around 5 per cent YoY. Profits are projected to increase for CESC, IEX, NHPC, NTPC, Power Grid, Torrent Power, and Tata Power, while Coal India, JSW Energy, and SJVN could see PAT declines. PGCIL and CESC remained Antique's top two stock picks from the sector.

In Q2FY26, all-India base power demand rose 3 per cent YoY to 448 BU, recovering from flat growth in Q1FY26. Peak demand remained stable at 230 GW, moderated by monsoon conditions. Day-Ahead Market (DAM) prices eased to Rs 3.9/kWh from Rs 4.4/kWh YoY, aided by strong renewable output and adequate coal supply. Installed capacity increased to 496 GW from 475 GW YoY, with the renewable share rising to 40 per cent from 36 per cent, reflecting the ongoing structural shift toward clean energy.

CESC is expected to report 9 per cent YoY PAT growth in Q2FY26, despite a 4 per cent YoY decline in generation to 3,956 MU. Standalone generation fell 5 per cent YoY, Dhariwal plant was down 2 per cent, while Haldia grew 9 per cent YoY. The start of supply from a lucrative PPA at Chandrapur (Rs 5.47/kWh) from May 2025 is expected to support earnings.

Coal India is likely to report a 2 per cent YoY drop in dispatches, with Ebitda (ex OBR) down 9 per cent YoY and PAT declining 16 per cent YoY. E-auction realisations were largely stable at Rs 2,448/ton.

IEX is expected to post 12 per cent YoY growth in total traded volume, with power volumes up 19 per cent YoY and REC volumes down 23 per cent YoY. Operational performance, aided by soft merchant prices and increased demand for grid stability, could translate into ~16 per cent PAT growth.

JSW Energy’s cumulative generation jumped 54 per cent YoY to 15 BU, with plants at Utkal and Mahanadi contributing positively. Ebitda is expected to rise 75 per cent YoY to Rs 31 billion, but higher depreciation and interest costs may push PBT down 9 per cent. The company currently operates 13 GW of capacity versus 7.7 GW YoY and targets an addition of 3–3.5 GW in the next year.

NHPC’s generation rose 5 per cent YoY to 8,420 MU, supported by the Parbati II addition, which increased regulated equity by 29 per cent YoY to Rs 166 billion. PAT is expected to grow 7 per cent YoY, though the Teesta project remains offline. Lower Subansiri units are scheduled for commissioning between June 2025 and May 2026.

NTPC’s installed capacity increased 3 per cent/9 per cent YoY on a standalone/consolidated basis. Despite commissioning 0.2 GW standalone (1 GW consolidated) and decommissioning 440 MW from Tanda, thermal plant generation fell 7 per cent YoY with a 500 bps drop in PLF. PAT on a standalone basis is still expected to rise 5 per cent YoY.

For Q2FY26, Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) is expected to see moderate growth, with PAT projected to rise 4 per cent YoY on a consolidated basis. The company has guided for capitalization of Rs 230–250 billion in FY26, with Q2 capitalization likely around Rs 35 billion, leading to a 3 per cent increase in regulated equity. PAT growth in FY25 was muted due to tighter O&M norms, but FY26 is expected to show 6–7 per cent growth overall, with investors keeping an eye on capitalization trends.

SJVN reported a 3 per cent YoY decline in generation from its two hydro plants in Q2FY26. PAT is expected to drop 36 per cent YoY, reflecting higher interest costs on debt raised to fund under-construction projects. The company continues to expand its renewable footprint, with current installed capacity at 2,465 MW (three hydro plants – 1,972 MW, nine renewable plants – 494 MW), and multiple projects underway, including four hydro projects (1,558 MW), one thermal plant (1,320 MW), and 12 solar projects (2,058 MW), two of which were added during the quarter.

Tata Power’s Q2FY26 cumulative generation from CGPL and Maithon stood at 1,890 MU, down 68 per cent YoY due to CGPL operations remaining close. PAT growth is still expected to rise 6 per cent YoY, supported by stronger distribution performance in Odisha and Delhi, a solar order book of Rs 160 billion, and contributions from newly commissioned cell and module plants.

Torrent Power’s cumulative generation in Q2FY26 reached 3.2 BU, up 8 per cent YoY, driven primarily by renewable additions. Thermal generation increased 4 per cent YoY, while merchant D-gen assets reported 579 MU versus 184 MU YoY. These operational gains are expected to drive a 19 per cent YoY increase in EBITDA and a 44 per cent YoY rise in EPS for the quarter.