Tata Power shares at Rs 500! MOFSL says long-term value creation on track
A total of 43.36 lakh retail investors were invested in this Tata group stock, as of September 30. The stock is down 3 per cent in 2025 so far against 8 per cent drop in the BSE Power index during the same period.
- Dec 16, 2025,
- Updated Dec 16, 2025 9:53 AM IST
Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) reiterated its 'Buy' rating on Tata Power Company Ltd (Tata Power), following an analyst meet in Bhubaneswar on December 15, attended by senior management. MOFSL said the Tata group firm, looking to double Ebitda to Rs 30,000 crore by FY30, was close to finalising a new special power purchase agreement mechanism for the Mundra plant. It also has plans to sharpen its focus on captive generation projects.
The domestic brokerage maintained its 'Buy' rating on Tata Power with a sum-of-the-parts-based target price of Rs 500 per share, citing long-term earnings visibility across transmission, renewables and distribution, alongside potential upside from Mundra normalisation. A total of 43.36 lakh retail investors were invested in this Tata group stock, as of September 30. The stock is down 3 per cent in 2025 so far against 8 per cent drop in the BSE Power index during the same period.
MOFSL said Tata Power was in advanced discussions to conclude a new SPPA mechanism for Mundra, similar in nature to Section XI, which was expected to enable power scheduling from January 2026. The brokerage said this could improve utilisation and earnings visibility for the asset. Management also indicated a renewed strategic emphasis on captive generation, with an annual capacity addition target of 2–2.5 GW from FY27 onwards.
MOFSL said Tata Power’s current installed operational capacity stood at around 16 GW, including about 7.1 GW from renewable sources. The company targeted scaling up total capacity to nearly 30 GW by 2030, with renewables accounting for around 20 GW. While management reiterated a broadly similar long-term growth framework to last year, MOFSL noted that the FY30 operational renewable capacity target had been lowered by 13 per cent to 20 GW from 23 GW earlier. As a result, the total installed capacity target for FY30 had been reduced to 30 GW from 33 GW previously.
Segment-wise, MOFSL highlighted that Tata Power aimed to scale its transmission portfolio to around 10,000 circuit kilometres by 2030 and emerge as a meaningful participant in the HVDC segment, supported by a material expansion in India’s HVDC and 765 kV network by 2032. In distribution, the brokerage said payment discipline had improved and the segment remained a key policy focus area for the government. Tata Power targeted expanding its customer base to about 40 million by FY30 from around 12.8 million currently.
In renewable energy, MOFSL said the company targeted total installed capacity of 20 GW by 2030. In rooftop solar, management expected revenue to grow at a CAGR of around 38 per cent over FY25–30. In hydro and pumped storage, MOFSL said the 600 MW Khorlochhu and 1,125 MW Dorjilung hydro projects were expected to be commissioned in 2029 and 2032, respectively. The 1,000 MW Bhivpuri pumped storage project, targeted for 2028, and the 1,800 MW Shirwata project, targeted for 2029, were under development.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) reiterated its 'Buy' rating on Tata Power Company Ltd (Tata Power), following an analyst meet in Bhubaneswar on December 15, attended by senior management. MOFSL said the Tata group firm, looking to double Ebitda to Rs 30,000 crore by FY30, was close to finalising a new special power purchase agreement mechanism for the Mundra plant. It also has plans to sharpen its focus on captive generation projects.
The domestic brokerage maintained its 'Buy' rating on Tata Power with a sum-of-the-parts-based target price of Rs 500 per share, citing long-term earnings visibility across transmission, renewables and distribution, alongside potential upside from Mundra normalisation. A total of 43.36 lakh retail investors were invested in this Tata group stock, as of September 30. The stock is down 3 per cent in 2025 so far against 8 per cent drop in the BSE Power index during the same period.
MOFSL said Tata Power was in advanced discussions to conclude a new SPPA mechanism for Mundra, similar in nature to Section XI, which was expected to enable power scheduling from January 2026. The brokerage said this could improve utilisation and earnings visibility for the asset. Management also indicated a renewed strategic emphasis on captive generation, with an annual capacity addition target of 2–2.5 GW from FY27 onwards.
MOFSL said Tata Power’s current installed operational capacity stood at around 16 GW, including about 7.1 GW from renewable sources. The company targeted scaling up total capacity to nearly 30 GW by 2030, with renewables accounting for around 20 GW. While management reiterated a broadly similar long-term growth framework to last year, MOFSL noted that the FY30 operational renewable capacity target had been lowered by 13 per cent to 20 GW from 23 GW earlier. As a result, the total installed capacity target for FY30 had been reduced to 30 GW from 33 GW previously.
Segment-wise, MOFSL highlighted that Tata Power aimed to scale its transmission portfolio to around 10,000 circuit kilometres by 2030 and emerge as a meaningful participant in the HVDC segment, supported by a material expansion in India’s HVDC and 765 kV network by 2032. In distribution, the brokerage said payment discipline had improved and the segment remained a key policy focus area for the government. Tata Power targeted expanding its customer base to about 40 million by FY30 from around 12.8 million currently.
In renewable energy, MOFSL said the company targeted total installed capacity of 20 GW by 2030. In rooftop solar, management expected revenue to grow at a CAGR of around 38 per cent over FY25–30. In hydro and pumped storage, MOFSL said the 600 MW Khorlochhu and 1,125 MW Dorjilung hydro projects were expected to be commissioned in 2029 and 2032, respectively. The 1,000 MW Bhivpuri pumped storage project, targeted for 2028, and the 1,800 MW Shirwata project, targeted for 2029, were under development.