Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, JSW Steel, SAIL stocks: Price targets, outlook ahead of Q3 earnings
ICICI Securities has a buy call on Tata Steel and Jindal Steel. It has a hold call on JSW Steel and SAIL.
- Jan 8, 2026,
- Updated Jan 8, 2026 3:15 PM IST
Metal stocks such as Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, JSW Steel and SAIL are in the spotlight ahead of their December 2025 quarter earnings. The shares are also in focus after the Modi government allowed imposition of safeguard duty on flat steel products recently. The duty is spread over three years – at 12% for the first year, 11.5% for the second and 11% for the third. The move has come as a shot in the arm for India’s steel industry, which was suffering for lower steel prices due to excess hot rolled (HR) capacity and continuation of imports.
ICICI Securities has a buy call on Tata Steel and Jindal Steel. It has a hold call on JSW Steel and SAIL.
Referring to the latest development of the government accepting Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) request for a three-year safeguard on the majority of flat steel products, the brokerage said JSW Steel shares followed by Tata Steel stock are potentially the strongest beneficiaries given their relatively higher flat product mix.
The timing of duty is perfect for Jindal Steel as they have just commissioned a BoF and entered flats products quite extensively.
On SAIL, the brokerage says, "It has 55% flats and rest long; thus, sits lowest in the list of beneficiaries (but it has major delta on margins due to a lower base)."
"We prefer Tata Steel and Jindal Steel over JSW due to valuations. APL Apollo NMDC, Shyam Metallics and Lloyd Metals will also likely benefit as a secondary effect from the safeguard," said ICICI Securities.
Antique Broking has price target of Rs 199 on Tata Steel with a buy call. On Jindal Steel too, the brokerage has a buy call with a price target of 1171. It has hold calls on JSW Steel with a price target of Rs 942 and SAIL with price target of Rs 129.
According to the brokerage, domestic steel demand remains strong with the World Steel Association’s short-range outlook projecting India’s demand to rise 8.9% YoY to 161.1 MT in CY25 and further increase by 9.1% YoY in CY26. Rationalization of Chinese steel production, seasonal uptick in domestic demand with safeguard duty should support Indian steelmakers. "
"We prefer steel companies with strong market presence, greater raw material integration, low leverage, and higher exposure to the domestic market," said Antique.
YES Securities expects the steel sector to face pricing pressures in Q3FY26, with higher volumes across most producers offering partial offset. However, margins are likely to remain under pressure, given limited pricing support and only partial cost relief from iron ore, alongside rising coking coal prices.
Tata Steel
According to YES Securities, Tata Steel is expected to report a modest Q3FY26, supported by higher sequential volumes that should partly mitigate the impact of weaker realisations. The India business is likely to see a sequential decline in EBITDA/tonne, while the European operations (TSUK) are expected to reduce losses QoQ, aiding consolidated performance.
JSW Steel
YES Securities expects JSW Steel to witness a similar trend, with EBITDA/t to decline sequentially. Stronger volumes are expected to provide partial support against softer realizations and a sequential increase in coking coal prices, resulting in a margin compression outcome for the quarter.
Steel Authority of India
SAIL is expected to report a strong operational performance, supported by record provisional monthly sales volumes in December 2025. However, YES Securities says higher coking coal costs and subdued steel pricing during the quarter are likely to weigh on profitability, with EBITDA/tonne expected to decline sequentially despite volume strength.
Jindal Steel
According to Nomura, Jindal Steel is likely to report a 15 per cent YoY rise in volumes to about 2.2 million tonnes in Q3FY26. However, realisations are likely to fall by Rs 3,000 per tonne sequentially due to a higher share of slabs and semi-finished products as the newly commissioned blast furnace ramped up.
The brokerage kept its Buy rating unchanged on Jindal Steel with a target price of Rs 1,150.
Metal stocks such as Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, JSW Steel and SAIL are in the spotlight ahead of their December 2025 quarter earnings. The shares are also in focus after the Modi government allowed imposition of safeguard duty on flat steel products recently. The duty is spread over three years – at 12% for the first year, 11.5% for the second and 11% for the third. The move has come as a shot in the arm for India’s steel industry, which was suffering for lower steel prices due to excess hot rolled (HR) capacity and continuation of imports.
ICICI Securities has a buy call on Tata Steel and Jindal Steel. It has a hold call on JSW Steel and SAIL.
Referring to the latest development of the government accepting Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) request for a three-year safeguard on the majority of flat steel products, the brokerage said JSW Steel shares followed by Tata Steel stock are potentially the strongest beneficiaries given their relatively higher flat product mix.
The timing of duty is perfect for Jindal Steel as they have just commissioned a BoF and entered flats products quite extensively.
On SAIL, the brokerage says, "It has 55% flats and rest long; thus, sits lowest in the list of beneficiaries (but it has major delta on margins due to a lower base)."
"We prefer Tata Steel and Jindal Steel over JSW due to valuations. APL Apollo NMDC, Shyam Metallics and Lloyd Metals will also likely benefit as a secondary effect from the safeguard," said ICICI Securities.
Antique Broking has price target of Rs 199 on Tata Steel with a buy call. On Jindal Steel too, the brokerage has a buy call with a price target of 1171. It has hold calls on JSW Steel with a price target of Rs 942 and SAIL with price target of Rs 129.
According to the brokerage, domestic steel demand remains strong with the World Steel Association’s short-range outlook projecting India’s demand to rise 8.9% YoY to 161.1 MT in CY25 and further increase by 9.1% YoY in CY26. Rationalization of Chinese steel production, seasonal uptick in domestic demand with safeguard duty should support Indian steelmakers. "
"We prefer steel companies with strong market presence, greater raw material integration, low leverage, and higher exposure to the domestic market," said Antique.
YES Securities expects the steel sector to face pricing pressures in Q3FY26, with higher volumes across most producers offering partial offset. However, margins are likely to remain under pressure, given limited pricing support and only partial cost relief from iron ore, alongside rising coking coal prices.
Tata Steel
According to YES Securities, Tata Steel is expected to report a modest Q3FY26, supported by higher sequential volumes that should partly mitigate the impact of weaker realisations. The India business is likely to see a sequential decline in EBITDA/tonne, while the European operations (TSUK) are expected to reduce losses QoQ, aiding consolidated performance.
JSW Steel
YES Securities expects JSW Steel to witness a similar trend, with EBITDA/t to decline sequentially. Stronger volumes are expected to provide partial support against softer realizations and a sequential increase in coking coal prices, resulting in a margin compression outcome for the quarter.
Steel Authority of India
SAIL is expected to report a strong operational performance, supported by record provisional monthly sales volumes in December 2025. However, YES Securities says higher coking coal costs and subdued steel pricing during the quarter are likely to weigh on profitability, with EBITDA/tonne expected to decline sequentially despite volume strength.
Jindal Steel
According to Nomura, Jindal Steel is likely to report a 15 per cent YoY rise in volumes to about 2.2 million tonnes in Q3FY26. However, realisations are likely to fall by Rs 3,000 per tonne sequentially due to a higher share of slabs and semi-finished products as the newly commissioned blast furnace ramped up.
The brokerage kept its Buy rating unchanged on Jindal Steel with a target price of Rs 1,150.