Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel: What Nomura says on China's likely property reforms
The brokerage values Jindal Steel at Rs 1,150. It sees JSW Steel at Rs 1,300. The foreign brokerage has a target price of Rs 215 on the Tata group's Tata Steel.
- Nov 24, 2025,
- Updated Nov 24, 2025 9:03 AM IST
Nomura in its fresh note on Indian steel sector said Beijing's evaluating of a broad set of policy measures aimed at stabilising the property sector, which underline policymakers’ rising concerns over the deepening property downturn and the series of macroeconomic shocks observed since early July.
While the proposed measures could alleviate some pressure on Chinese households, particularly in light of the prolonged decline in home prices, they are unlikely, in isolation, to reverse the entrenched property correction, it said.
Nonetheless, the foreign brokerage reiterated its bullish stance on the India steel sector, notwithstanding the recent moderation in steel prices, saying both domestic and global tailwinds remain supportive.
On the global front, China’s anti-involution measures have started yielding results, with monthly crude steel production since April 2025 trending at the low end of the five-year average, compared to the peak levels observed in March 2025.
While structural challenges persist, Nomura expects incremental policy support from China, particularly in the form of property-focused stimulus.
"Domestically, in India the growth trajectory remains strong with both apparent steel consumption and production increasing, underscoring robust demand fundamentals. We expect this momentum to sustain well into FY27–28F, driven by infrastructure expansion, manufacturing growth, and resilient end-user industries. Against this backdrop, we maintain our Buy recommendations on Tata Steel, JSW Steel and Jindal Steel," it said.
The brokerage values Jindal Steel at Rs 1,150. It sees JSW Steel at Rs 1,300. The foreign brokerage has a target of Rs 215 on the Tata group's Tata Steel.
"Despite the pronounced weakening across major indicators since mid-2025, Beijing has shown a notably slow policy response. Typically, broad-based declines of this magnitude would prompt a fast counter-cyclical action. Our Chief China Economist notes several factors explaining the hesitation," it said.
Nomura said upcoming measures may include mortgage subsidies for first-time homebuyers, increased income-tax deductions for mortgage borrowers, and reductions in housing transaction costs. If implemented, these initiatives would underline policymakers’ rising concerns over the deepening property downturn and the series of macroeconomic shocks observed since early July, it said.
"In our Chief China economist’s view, authorities are likely to pair these demand- side measures with supply-side efforts to reduce non-performing debt and stabilize balance sheets across the sector, although the exact policy mix and timing remain uncertain," Nomura said.
Nomura in its fresh note on Indian steel sector said Beijing's evaluating of a broad set of policy measures aimed at stabilising the property sector, which underline policymakers’ rising concerns over the deepening property downturn and the series of macroeconomic shocks observed since early July.
While the proposed measures could alleviate some pressure on Chinese households, particularly in light of the prolonged decline in home prices, they are unlikely, in isolation, to reverse the entrenched property correction, it said.
Nonetheless, the foreign brokerage reiterated its bullish stance on the India steel sector, notwithstanding the recent moderation in steel prices, saying both domestic and global tailwinds remain supportive.
On the global front, China’s anti-involution measures have started yielding results, with monthly crude steel production since April 2025 trending at the low end of the five-year average, compared to the peak levels observed in March 2025.
While structural challenges persist, Nomura expects incremental policy support from China, particularly in the form of property-focused stimulus.
"Domestically, in India the growth trajectory remains strong with both apparent steel consumption and production increasing, underscoring robust demand fundamentals. We expect this momentum to sustain well into FY27–28F, driven by infrastructure expansion, manufacturing growth, and resilient end-user industries. Against this backdrop, we maintain our Buy recommendations on Tata Steel, JSW Steel and Jindal Steel," it said.
The brokerage values Jindal Steel at Rs 1,150. It sees JSW Steel at Rs 1,300. The foreign brokerage has a target of Rs 215 on the Tata group's Tata Steel.
"Despite the pronounced weakening across major indicators since mid-2025, Beijing has shown a notably slow policy response. Typically, broad-based declines of this magnitude would prompt a fast counter-cyclical action. Our Chief China Economist notes several factors explaining the hesitation," it said.
Nomura said upcoming measures may include mortgage subsidies for first-time homebuyers, increased income-tax deductions for mortgage borrowers, and reductions in housing transaction costs. If implemented, these initiatives would underline policymakers’ rising concerns over the deepening property downturn and the series of macroeconomic shocks observed since early July, it said.
"In our Chief China economist’s view, authorities are likely to pair these demand- side measures with supply-side efforts to reduce non-performing debt and stabilize balance sheets across the sector, although the exact policy mix and timing remain uncertain," Nomura said.