Top auto stock picks ahead of December sales data
Nuvama said TVS Motor and Eicher Motors’ Royal Enfield are expected to outperform peers in the two-wheeler segment, while M&M and Maruti Suzuki India are likely to lead among passenger vehicles.
- Dec 29, 2025,
- Updated Dec 29, 2025 8:26 AM IST
Nuvama Institutional Equities in its latest note maintained a constructive view on the automobile sector, expecting December wholesales to record double-digit year-on-year growth across segments, led by better affordability following GST rate cuts, new product launches, interest rate cuts and adequate financing availability. The brokerage said export volumes may grow in double-digits, led by Asia, Africa and Latin America, even as rural sentiment remained tepid due to a drop in retail crop prices.
Nuvama said TVS Motor and Eicher Motors’ Royal Enfield are expected to outperform peers in the two-wheeler segment, while Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and Maruti Suzuki India are likely to lead among passenger vehicles. The brokerage retained Maruti Suzuki India, TVS Motor and M&M as its top original equipment manufacturer picks.
In the two-wheeler segment, Nuvama expects industry volumes to grow in double digits in December 2025, with domestic volumes estimated to rise about 22 per cent year on year. The growth is expected to be driven by positive customer sentiment, improved affordability due to GST rate cuts and adequate financing availability, despite weaker rural sentiment. Exports are forecast to grow at a double-digit rate, led by emerging markets.
Nuvama estimated December wholesales growth of 29 per cent year on year for TVS Motor to about 4.15 lakh units, 26 per cent for Eicher Motors’ Royal Enfield to around 1 lakh units, 23 per cent for Hero MotoCorp to about 4 lakh units and 18 per cent for Bajaj Auto to roughly 3.8 lakh units.
For passenger vehicles, the brokerage expected industry volumes to rise in double digits, with domestic volumes seen up about 21 per cent year on year, aided by GST cuts, new model launches and financing availability. Nuvama noted that discounts have increased sequentially across OEMs, with Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles offering higher discounts even on a year-on-year basis, particularly on electric vehicles. It estimated total volume growth of 29 per cent year on year for M&M Auto, including PVs, CVs and three-wheelers, to about 90,000 units, 23 per cent for Maruti Suzuki to around 2.2 lakh units, 19 per cent for Tata Motors PV to about 52,500 units and 9 per cent for Hyundai to roughly 60,000 units.
In the commercial vehicle segment, Nuvama expects double-digit growth in December, with domestic volumes projected to rise about 17 per cent year on year. The brokerage attributed the outlook to GST cuts, improved freight availability due to higher consumption demand, adequate financing, a shift from used to new vehicles and a low base. Exports are also expected to grow in double digits, led by Asia. Nuvama estimated total volume growth of 18 per cent year on year for Eicher Motors–VECV to about 9,800 units, 17 per cent for Tata Motors CV to around 39,500 units and 17 per cent for Ashok Leyland to nearly 19,800 units.
For tractors, Nuvama forecast industry volumes to grow in the mid-teens in December, with domestic volumes expected to rise about 14 per cent year on year, supported by better affordability following GST cuts and the Maharashtra state subsidy scheme. However, the brokerage flagged that terms of trade had turned negative due to lower retail crop prices and higher input costs. It estimated volumes for M&M Farm and Escorts Kubota to grow 16 per cent and 13 per cent year on year to about 26,500 units and 6,200 units, respectively.
Nuvama Institutional Equities in its latest note maintained a constructive view on the automobile sector, expecting December wholesales to record double-digit year-on-year growth across segments, led by better affordability following GST rate cuts, new product launches, interest rate cuts and adequate financing availability. The brokerage said export volumes may grow in double-digits, led by Asia, Africa and Latin America, even as rural sentiment remained tepid due to a drop in retail crop prices.
Nuvama said TVS Motor and Eicher Motors’ Royal Enfield are expected to outperform peers in the two-wheeler segment, while Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and Maruti Suzuki India are likely to lead among passenger vehicles. The brokerage retained Maruti Suzuki India, TVS Motor and M&M as its top original equipment manufacturer picks.
In the two-wheeler segment, Nuvama expects industry volumes to grow in double digits in December 2025, with domestic volumes estimated to rise about 22 per cent year on year. The growth is expected to be driven by positive customer sentiment, improved affordability due to GST rate cuts and adequate financing availability, despite weaker rural sentiment. Exports are forecast to grow at a double-digit rate, led by emerging markets.
Nuvama estimated December wholesales growth of 29 per cent year on year for TVS Motor to about 4.15 lakh units, 26 per cent for Eicher Motors’ Royal Enfield to around 1 lakh units, 23 per cent for Hero MotoCorp to about 4 lakh units and 18 per cent for Bajaj Auto to roughly 3.8 lakh units.
For passenger vehicles, the brokerage expected industry volumes to rise in double digits, with domestic volumes seen up about 21 per cent year on year, aided by GST cuts, new model launches and financing availability. Nuvama noted that discounts have increased sequentially across OEMs, with Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles offering higher discounts even on a year-on-year basis, particularly on electric vehicles. It estimated total volume growth of 29 per cent year on year for M&M Auto, including PVs, CVs and three-wheelers, to about 90,000 units, 23 per cent for Maruti Suzuki to around 2.2 lakh units, 19 per cent for Tata Motors PV to about 52,500 units and 9 per cent for Hyundai to roughly 60,000 units.
In the commercial vehicle segment, Nuvama expects double-digit growth in December, with domestic volumes projected to rise about 17 per cent year on year. The brokerage attributed the outlook to GST cuts, improved freight availability due to higher consumption demand, adequate financing, a shift from used to new vehicles and a low base. Exports are also expected to grow in double digits, led by Asia. Nuvama estimated total volume growth of 18 per cent year on year for Eicher Motors–VECV to about 9,800 units, 17 per cent for Tata Motors CV to around 39,500 units and 17 per cent for Ashok Leyland to nearly 19,800 units.
For tractors, Nuvama forecast industry volumes to grow in the mid-teens in December, with domestic volumes expected to rise about 14 per cent year on year, supported by better affordability following GST cuts and the Maharashtra state subsidy scheme. However, the brokerage flagged that terms of trade had turned negative due to lower retail crop prices and higher input costs. It estimated volumes for M&M Farm and Escorts Kubota to grow 16 per cent and 13 per cent year on year to about 26,500 units and 6,200 units, respectively.