Trump tariff: Welspun Living shares down 30% YTD; Pakistan, Turkey no threat; key triggers
Welspun Living: Antique said while Pakistan and Turkey have been levied lower tariff of 19 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively, they have higher production costs.
- Sep 30, 2025,
- Updated Sep 30, 2025 3:21 PM IST
Shares of Welspun Living are down 30 per cent in 2025 so far amid concerns over Trump tariffs that have disrupted the Indian textile industry, particularly affecting exports. Antique Stock Broking, which met the Welspun Living management at an institutional analyst meet, said the impact has been more pronounced for downstream players, including Welspun Living.
Retail product prices in the US have increased by 3–4 per cent, with further 10 per cent rise expected for Welspun Living, adding that topline (especially US exports) is expected to be 15–20 per cent down over the next two quarters till there is a favorable trade deal. Management expects positive developments by October.
Antique said Welspun's profitability would be significantly impacted and likely to be wiped out in the near term.
"Even a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff would be a positive outcome if penal 25 per cent tariff is withdrawn. Near term impact would be, volume would certainly go down in 2Q and 3Q, even if there are positive developments in October on trade terms. Overall capacity utilization at 80 per cent level," it said.
On competition, Antique said while Pakistan and Turkey have been levied lower tariff of 19 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively, they have higher production costs. In addition, Pakistan has to import cotton as the cotton they produce are not of good quality. Turkey has local cotton but underdeveloped supply chain. Imports from Xinjiang cotton are banned in US. In the case of Bangladesh, it has no domestic cotton and high power and operational costs.
Lastly, China is strong in microfiber. But there are few integrated players in home textile in China, which also faces high manpower costs.
On cotton front, Antique noted that Welspun Living is comfortable and is covered till November in India and till March in US. Cotton season starts in November in India. Currently, Shankar 6 cotton is stable at around Rs 55,000 per candy.
In the Bath rugs, soft flooring has a capacity utilization of 85 per cent and continued to perform well, Antique said adding that hard flooring is facing challenges. It said 90 per cent of flooring revenue comes from soft flooring.
"Although the company is taking steps to mitigate the impact, it faces significant challenges in the near term. We maintain HOLD rating with a target price of Rs 132," Antique said.
Shares of Welspun Living are down 30 per cent in 2025 so far amid concerns over Trump tariffs that have disrupted the Indian textile industry, particularly affecting exports. Antique Stock Broking, which met the Welspun Living management at an institutional analyst meet, said the impact has been more pronounced for downstream players, including Welspun Living.
Retail product prices in the US have increased by 3–4 per cent, with further 10 per cent rise expected for Welspun Living, adding that topline (especially US exports) is expected to be 15–20 per cent down over the next two quarters till there is a favorable trade deal. Management expects positive developments by October.
Antique said Welspun's profitability would be significantly impacted and likely to be wiped out in the near term.
"Even a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff would be a positive outcome if penal 25 per cent tariff is withdrawn. Near term impact would be, volume would certainly go down in 2Q and 3Q, even if there are positive developments in October on trade terms. Overall capacity utilization at 80 per cent level," it said.
On competition, Antique said while Pakistan and Turkey have been levied lower tariff of 19 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively, they have higher production costs. In addition, Pakistan has to import cotton as the cotton they produce are not of good quality. Turkey has local cotton but underdeveloped supply chain. Imports from Xinjiang cotton are banned in US. In the case of Bangladesh, it has no domestic cotton and high power and operational costs.
Lastly, China is strong in microfiber. But there are few integrated players in home textile in China, which also faces high manpower costs.
On cotton front, Antique noted that Welspun Living is comfortable and is covered till November in India and till March in US. Cotton season starts in November in India. Currently, Shankar 6 cotton is stable at around Rs 55,000 per candy.
In the Bath rugs, soft flooring has a capacity utilization of 85 per cent and continued to perform well, Antique said adding that hard flooring is facing challenges. It said 90 per cent of flooring revenue comes from soft flooring.
"Although the company is taking steps to mitigate the impact, it faces significant challenges in the near term. We maintain HOLD rating with a target price of Rs 132," Antique said.